Mr. P Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 2 minutes ago, BlueInCanada said: Neither do Justin Fields, or Daniels Jones of the world. I wonder if any of these draft pundits have done deep delves into QB round and success in the NFL. You know you’re more likely to hit on a early 1st round qb than a middle of the draft guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. P Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 The chances of a quarterback making even one All-Pro first team is just 4.6%; a 1:25 shot. However, that chance more than doubles when selecting a signal-caller in the first round (9.4%) and rises to 11.9% if the player is selected in the top five. Think about that. If you are taking a quarterback, and you determine there is one available in the top five who fits your criteria, you have turned your chance of landing one of the top passers in the game from a Hail Mary to a long-third down conversion. It's still tough, but there is a much higher probability. Not every quarterback is going to be an All-Pro. And failing to achieve that doesn't mean you aren't a franchise quarterback. So let's lower the standard to Pro Bowlers. https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/where-great-nfl-qbs-are-picked-analyzing-54-years-of-history-by-draft-position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 6 QBs in round one. So roughly 10% might make a problem (awful criteria by Fox surprised they used it) So one of these guys might make the pro bowl once. Man the draft is just a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. P Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 11 minutes ago, BlueInCanada said: 6 QBs in round one. So roughly 10% might make a problem (awful criteria by Fox surprised they used it) So one of these guys might make the pro bowl once. Man the draft is just a crap shoot. Point being, which I know you know, that it becomes exponentially more of a crapshoot the later it gets in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorBanksCarsonVanPelt Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 11 hours ago, Iceman_NYG said: Dude knows what hes talking about.... For sure. He likes Penix but he said that he goes for the home run too often and they he should just take what he can get sometimes. Manning had the all for broke disease sometimes as well. I would have loved Penix to be a developmental prospect here... it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorBanksCarsonVanPelt Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 6 hours ago, BlueInCanada said: Unless we had an inside line between the two, we really don't know if this is true other than "pundit inside sources" reports. Could of just been more lies by the Giants to get a team to flinch and trade up. The draft is all agents and pundits till about a day and a half before the draft itself. Full of rumors and misdirection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorBanksCarsonVanPelt Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 6 hours ago, mastershake said: I just wish one of the QB's would fall far enough for us to snag them in the late 1st. I really wanted Penis....uhh I mean Penix. This... you have to roll the dice and you get what you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazedDogs Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 What’s with the ‘DraKKKe Maye’ stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 2 hours ago, Mr. P said: Point being, which I know you know, that it becomes exponentially more of a crapshoot the later it gets in the draft. I somewhat agree, I think the talent level is better, but not necessarily better or as you put it "exponentially" better at finding a good QB vs the lower rounds. Even the example you used is a 5% increase from first round to later rounds. Frankly there are far more busts in the first round of the NFL draft at QB then later rounds, which I believe is mostly due to over reaching at that position since everyone is desperate to find their next guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 5 hours ago, Mr. P said: The chances of a quarterback making even one All-Pro first team is just 4.6%; a 1:25 shot. However, that chance more than doubles when selecting a signal-caller in the first round (9.4%) and rises to 11.9% if the player is selected in the top five. Think about that. If you are taking a quarterback, and you determine there is one available in the top five who fits your criteria, you have turned your chance of landing one of the top passers in the game from a Hail Mary to a long-third down conversion. It's still tough, but there is a much higher probability. Not every quarterback is going to be an All-Pro. And failing to achieve that doesn't mean you aren't a franchise quarterback. So let's lower the standard to Pro Bowlers. https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/where-great-nfl-qbs-are-picked-analyzing-54-years-of-history-by-draft-position This is all accurate, but also the context is one where if you're drafting a QB in rounds 1-2, you're more likely to be given a chance to start, given the team invested premium assets in your. Some guys rounds 3-7 rarely if ever get a chance to start, and the little they get might be backup work at best. For instance, the guys drafted in the top 12 this year are all going to be given a shot to start most likely at least a couple dozen games, while those in rounds 3-7 are more likely to be considered backups. I'd be interested to see it expressed not as a % drafted but as a % given a chance to start, say, >= 20 games. The current denominator is all drafted, but I'd like to see it as among those who were given a chance to start 20 or more games, or some similar threshold. Especially considering some recent drafts have been real duffers for QB's in the first round. Look at 2021-2022. Lawrence is a mid range starter, the rest are most likely backups, or maybe bottom tier starter in Fields. - Trevor Lawrence - Zach Wilson - Trey Lance - Justin Fields - Mac Jones - Kenny Pickett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. P Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 We should just trade out of the first round every year then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virginia Giant Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Round 2. Blake Fisher RT Notre Dame? Los of starting experience at RT and solid from what I’ve read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmenroc Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 18 minutes ago, Virginia Giant said: Round 2. Blake Fisher RT Notre Dame? Los of starting experience at RT and solid from what I’ve read. OL is fine...but I would rather goninterior with a G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Oh looks like Tiki is doing our picks. Unless that was Ronde lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Just a run on WRs. Going to be some solid guards and defensively talent when the Giants pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 What's with NFL players and doing speed runs on the highways? Gonna be "you can't drive" in contract clauses soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BronxRik Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 19 hours ago, Sephiroth said: No way I'm taking any of those guys, pure desperation. Those are 4th round and beyond talent. You don't reach just because the rest of the league was dumb enough to in the 1st with the JJ McCarthies and Bo Nixes of the world. See, I knew I shouldn't have said a round because I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about. I saw Phil Simms and his kid's Youtube and they were breaking the 3 of them down and late round picks. I guess I should have said late round instead of 2nd round. I'll go crawl back in my corner of the internet now and let the big boys pontificate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Eagles going back to back DBs. They know Nabers is in now town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Well don't think we're going CB. All those top 50 Gus are gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sephiroth Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Of fucking course the Eagles take the DB I wanted that was mocked in the top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boohyah Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Geez, the Eagles just win at the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herc Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 6 minutes ago, Sephiroth said: Of fucking course the Eagles take the DB I wanted that was mocked in the top 10. It’s always the fucking eagles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 I was hoping that Action Power Johnson would be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sephiroth Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 NOT Ennis Fucking Rakestraw please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Would of like Cooper too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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