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Because I'm admittedly nerdy - playoff possibilities

gmenroc

By gmenroc
in New York Giants

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gmenroc

gmenroc

Posted
Posted

Okay, so I just went through and found all the possibilities for the NFC East, using outcomes from the Redskins, Cowboys, and Giants games.

 

There are 8 ways the Giants can finish the season.

 

WWW

LWW

WLW

WWL

WLL

LWL

LLW

LLL

 

There are also 8 ways the Redskins can finish the season (same as above).

 

Now, because the Redskins and Cowboys play each other in week 17, for the above calculation, there are only 4 potential outcomes for the Cowboys to finish the season per Giant-Redskin scenario. For example, if the Redskins win the final game, the Cowboys can only go WWL, WLL, LLL, or LWL. If the Redskins lose the final game, the Cowboys can only go WWW, WLW, LLW, or LWW. Again, just 4 possibilities.

 

So, the 256 current outcomes is derived from 8x8x4.

 

I actually listed them all out into a spreadsheet, with overall and division records.

 

In 121/256, Giants win the division.

In 67/256, Redskins win the division.

In 57/256, Cowboys win the division.

In 11/256, it comes to a tiebreaker due to identical overall record and identical division record. I simply leave this as a ?.

 

***Of note, in 25 of the scenarios in which the Giants do NOT win the division, they do record 10 wins, which would likely make them a clear wildcard favorite.

 

If the Giants win on Sunday, it cuts the 256 down to 128 possibilites.

 

In 85/128, Giants win.

In 21/128, Redskins win.

In 20/128, Cowboys win.

In 2/128, it comes down to a tiebreaker.

 

If you convert this to percentages, Giants have a 47% chance of taking the division as it stands right now. If they win on Sunday, that 47% jumps to 66%.

 

If the Giants lose on Sunday, it cuts the 256 down to 128 possibilities just the same.

 

However, if the Gaints lose, the percentages flip in favor of the Redskins regardless of the outcome of the Redskins game.

 

In 36/128, Giants win.

In 46/128, Redskins win.

In 37/128, Cowboys win.

In 9/128, it comes down to tiebreaker.

 

If you convert this to percentages, losing on Sunday would drop our probability of winning the division from 47% where it is now down to 28%.

 

Win the next 2 games, and we jump to 87.5%. 6.25% for Redskins and 6.25% for Cowboys.

 

Yeah, I'm glad we're hearing that the team is treating these games as if they're playoff games in the regular season. Any loss at this point would be crushing.

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Firstnten

Firstnten

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Here’s a statistic. The NFC east will come down to the last Giants game of the season. Giants beat the eagles and they are in they lose and it's time to start looking at tea times.

 

You can congratulate me on my uncanny prediction if the Giants win.

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Firstnten

Firstnten

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If the owners get their way and the league goes to 16 teams in the playoffs, we no longer have to stress.

 

I can't wait to see 7-9 teams make the playoffs. Then right after this decisions is made they will eliminate special teams from games and introduce the new official NFL uniform.

nuitsuit3.jpg

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Clarence the Blue Puppet

Clarence the Blue Puppet

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Ummmmmm i think we just need to win the next 2 games......treat the Eagles like an exhibition game and then march though the playoffs like Champions

 

God Bless the Little Children (Heart Broken)

 

I refuse to treat the Eagles game like an exhibition. We need to stomp them into the fucking mud.

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Sephiroth

Sephiroth

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Okay, so I just went through and found all the possibilities for the NFC East, using outcomes from the Redskins, Cowboys, and Giants games.

 

There are 8 ways the Giants can finish the season.

 

WWW

LWW

WLW

WWL

WLL

LWL

LLW

LLL

 

There are also 8 ways the Redskins can finish the season (same as above).

 

Now, because the Redskins and Cowboys play each other in week 17, for the above calculation, there are only 4 potential outcomes for the Cowboys to finish the season per Giant-Redskin scenario. For example, if the Redskins win the final game, the Cowboys can only go WWL, WLL, LLL, or LWL. If the Redskins lose the final game, the Cowboys can only go WWW, WLW, LLW, or LWW. Again, just 4 possibilities.

 

So, the 256 current outcomes is derived from 8x8x4.

 

I actually listed them all out into a spreadsheet, with overall and division records.

 

In 121/256, Giants win the division.

In 67/256, Redskins win the division.

In 57/256, Cowboys win the division.

In 11/256, it comes to a tiebreaker due to identical overall record and identical division record. I simply leave this as a ?.

 

***Of note, in 25 of the scenarios in which the Giants do NOT win the division, they do record 10 wins, which would likely make them a clear wildcard favorite.

 

If the Giants win on Sunday, it cuts the 256 down to 128 possibilites.

 

In 85/128, Giants win.

In 21/128, Redskins win.

In 20/128, Cowboys win.

In 2/128, it comes down to a tiebreaker.

 

If you convert this to percentages, Giants have a 47% chance of taking the division as it stands right now. If they win on Sunday, that 47% jumps to 66%.

 

If the Giants lose on Sunday, it cuts the 256 down to 128 possibilities just the same.

 

However, if the Gaints lose, the percentages flip in favor of the Redskins regardless of the outcome of the Redskins game.

 

In 36/128, Giants win.

In 46/128, Redskins win.

In 37/128, Cowboys win.

In 9/128, it comes down to tiebreaker.

 

If you convert this to percentages, losing on Sunday would drop our probability of winning the division from 47% where it is now down to 28%.

 

Win the next 2 games, and we jump to 87.5%. 6.25% for Redskins and 6.25% for Cowboys.

 

Yeah, I'm glad we're hearing that the team is treating these games as if they're playoff games in the regular season. Any loss at this point would be crushing.

 

This is awesome man. Thanks!

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gmenroc

gmenroc

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Okay, since some of you liked this, I'll update you given yesterday's...cough..cough...performances, or lack thereof in our case.

 

There are now 32 remaining outcomes. Giants can go WW, WL, LW, or LL. Redskins can do the same. Again, because the Cowboys finish the season against the Redskins, they only have 2 possibilities for each Giants-Redskins scenario. For example, if the Redskins get a W in the final week, the Cowboys can only go LL, or WL. So, 4x4x2 gets you to the 32 possibilities.

 

Giants win division in 4/32

Redskins win division in 14/32

Cowboys win division in 11/32

In 3/32, the tiebreaker is beyond overall and division records, but the ties are all between the Cowboys and Redskins, so these 3 are definitely not to provide any solace to the Giants fan.

 

**Of note, in 4 of the scenarios where the Giants do NOT win the division, they still get 10 wins and likely get the wild card spot.

 

Lastly, to avoid any confusion, my 2:55 pm "pessimistic" post on December 13th was based on a Redskins win and Giants loss...whereas the update above includes those two outcomes, but also includes the Cowboys win which is why there's 32 possibilities noted above instead of the 64 mentioned in the previous post.

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Mr. P

Mr. P

Posted
Posted

 

The defending Super Bowl champions are now in third place in the NFC East.

But they still control their playoff destiny.

That's the bizarre reality the Giants are left with after their humiliating, 34-0 loss in Atlanta on Sunday. The Giants (8-6) are technically in a first-place tie with the Washington Redskins (8-6) and Dallas Cowboys (8-6), but they slip to third based on the tie-breaker, which since they split the season series against both those teams, is record in the division.

Right now the Redskins are 3-1 in the NFC East. The Cowboys are 3-2. The Giants are 2-3.

However, despite all that, the Giants are in pretty good playoff position, thanks to their 7-4 record in NFC games. That gives them a tie-breaker advantage over the Vikings and the Bears, two 8-6 teams in the fight for the second and final wild-card spot. It also helps that the Cowboys and Redskins play each other in Week 17, meaning both of them can't get to 10 wins.

So if the Giants do get to 10, they'll finish at least in second place in the division and get the sixth -- or maybe even the fifth -- seed in the NFC.

Confused? Don't be. Just remember this: It's win and in for the Giants, which is what Tom Coughlin has been saying all along.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/giants/2012/12/third-place-giants-still-control-their-destiny

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

just get in the playoffs.

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UK-Giantsfan

UK-Giantsfan

Posted
Posted

( trying to be positive despite that abysmal game yesterday ) .....but the season is still totally in our own hands .........win the next 5 games and we are in the Superbowl !

 

thanks for the update gmenroc ( ...by the way ...is there any sequence of events in which we scrape into the playoffs as the 6th seed at 9-7 ? )

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Firstnten

Firstnten

Posted
Posted

( trying to be positive despite that abysmal game yesterday ) .....but the season is still totally in our own hands .........win the next 5 games and we are in the Superbowl !

 

thanks for the update gmenroc ( ...by the way ...is there any sequence of events in which we scrape into the playoffs as the 6th seed at 9-7 ? )

It depends on how CHi and Minny does in the next two games.

 

Here is the scary thing. I had the same feeling as last year...this team sucks balls and has no business being in the playoffs. Just as I think this the team goes on a tear.

 

In all the years of watching football I have never seen a team that looks so poorly coached and so out classed one week suddenly change gears and look the total opposite the next.

 

I'm looking for an analogy here but keep coming up empty.

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gmenroc

gmenroc

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It depends on how CHi and Minny does in the next two games.

 

Here is the scary thing. I had the same feeling as last year...this team sucks balls and has no business being in the playoffs. Just as I think this the team goes on a tear.

 

In all the years of watching football I have never seen a team that looks so poorly coached and so out classed one week suddenly change gears and look the total opposite the next.

 

I'm looking for an analogy here but keep coming up empty.

 

Not just Minnesota and Chicago, but Dallas and Seattle as well. Seattle sits at 9-5 while Chicago, Minnesota, Dallas, and the Giants sit at 8-5.

 

If the Giants finish with a better overall record than these teams, then they'll be assured a wild card.

If the Giants finish tied with these teams, but hold a better conference record, which they do currently, they'll get a wild card.

 

So, the chances the Giants get in are still very good, but they could be dashed with a loss to Philadelphia (hurts the conference record tiebreaker).

 

Dallas finishes home to New Orleans and away at Washington

NY Giants finishes at Baltimore and home against Philadelphia

Seattle finishes home to San Francisco and home to St. Louis

Minnesota finishes at Houston and home against Green Bay.

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Dragon

Dragon

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It depends on how CHi and Minny does in the next two games.

 

Here is the scary thing. I had the same feeling as last year...this team sucks balls and has no business being in the playoffs. Just as I think this the team goes on a tear.

 

In all the years of watching football I have never seen a team that looks so poorly coached and so out classed one week suddenly change gears and look the total opposite the next.

 

I'm looking for an analogy here but keep coming up empty.

Bipolar?

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Firstnten

Firstnten

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Posted

Not just Minnesota and Chicago, but Dallas and Seattle as well. Seattle sits at 9-5 while Chicago, Minnesota, Dallas, and the Giants sit at 8-5.

 

If the Giants finish with a better overall record than these teams, then they'll be assured a wild card.

If the Giants finish tied with these teams, but hold a better conference record, which they do currently, they'll get a wild card.

 

So, the chances the Giants get in are still very good, but they could be dashed with a loss to Philadelphia (hurts the conference record tiebreaker).

 

Dallas finishes home to New Orleans and away at Washington

NY Giants finishes at Baltimore and home against Philadelphia

Seattle finishes home to San Francisco and home to St. Louis

Minnesota finishes at Houston and home against Green Bay.

 

Their chances should have been dashed with the Joke of a game they played last weekend. Seatlle has two division games and Dallas is going to washington for the divison. I for one don't see these two in the mix but thats why they play every Sunday...

 

and now that I said it Dallas will win the divsion and seattle will take the wildcard......WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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