More Smokescreen?

[Mr. P]

8 hours ago, mastershake said:

He's being paid like a TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, or Nick Bosa, but has like half the production. Actually he's being paid more than them. Definitely overpaid.

If he puts up say 12 or more sacks, we'll all be shutting up. If he puts up 8-9, it'll look a bloated contract for a good not great player. This all really reminds me of Olivier Vernon, who as a player, I couldn't get upset with because he was pretty solid, but more was frustrated at the front office because he was just paid so much. Though I think Burns is a little better than Vernon.

 

 

which is fuckin stupid because stats don’t tell the whole story on a guys season. 
 

And I can’t believe I have to say this more than once but here we are,  Burns is nothing like Vernon.   Has nobody here actually ever watched Burns play?

[Sephiroth]

8 hours ago, mastershake said:

He's being paid like a TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, or Nick Bosa, but has like half the production. Actually he's being paid more than them. Definitely overpaid.

If he puts up say 12 or more sacks, we'll all be shutting up. If he puts up 8-9, it'll look a bloated contract for a good not great player. This all really reminds me of Olivier Vernon, who as a player, I couldn't get upset with because he was pretty solid, but more was frustrated at the front office because he was just paid so much. Though I think Burns is a little better than Vernon.

This is exactly my take as well.  We're paying for potential, not production. 

[mastershake]

1 hour ago, Mr. P said:

 

 

which is fuckin stupid because stats don’t tell the whole story on a guys season. 
 

And I can’t believe I have to say this more than once but here we are,  Burns is nothing like Vernon.   Has nobody here actually ever watched Burns play?

Burns will likely never be the caliber of a Watt, Garrett, or Bosa is what I'm getting after.

[BlueInCanada]

1 hour ago, Mr. P said:

 

 

which is fuckin stupid because stats don’t tell the whole story on a guys season. 
 

And I can’t believe I have to say this more than once but here we are,  Burns is nothing like Vernon.   Has nobody here actually ever watched Burns play?

I think people just expect 30 million to come with Watt level impact of play. 

Burns will never be a Watt or a Hutcheson. 

However those type of guys will be resetting the pass rushing market in the next year or so and Burn's contract will just be the normal for 10+ sack type players. 

[Sephiroth]

15 minutes ago, mastershake said:

Burns will likely never be the caliber of a Watt, Garrett, or Bosa is what I'm getting after.

 

6 minutes ago, BlueInCanada said:

I think people just expect 30 million to come with Watt level impact of play. 

Burns will never be a Watt or a Hutcheson. 

However those type of guys will be resetting the pass rushing market in the next year or so and Burn's contract will just be the normal for 10+ sack type players. 

 

1 hour ago, Mr. P said:

 

 

which is fuckin stupid because stats don’t tell the whole story on a guys season. 
 

And I can’t believe I have to say this more than once but here we are,  Burns is nothing like Vernon.   Has nobody here actually ever watched Burns play?

 

Here is Burns' advanced metrics over the past three years.  Literally no top-10 finishes in any category. 

I'm not sure what you're seeing that we're not, Pdub.  He's a nice player but he's not worth top-2 money IMO.  Again, if you think he is that's fine but the metrics say he's not. 

 

[BlueInCanada]

2 minutes ago, Sephiroth said:

 

 

 

Here is Burns' advanced metrics over the past three years.  Literally no top-10 finishes in any category. 

I'm not sure what you're seeing that we're not, Pdub.  He's a nice player but he's not worth top-2 money IMO.  Again, if you think he is that's fine but the metrics say he's not. 

 

Depends on where you get your metrics really. 

ESPN has Burns outside the top 10 in PRWR. 

But the difference is marginal of 1% between some players.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38356170/2023-nfl-pass-rush-run-stop-blocking-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams

 

[mastershake]

3 minutes ago, Sephiroth said:

 

 

 

Here is Burns' advanced metrics over the past three years.  Literally no top-10 finishes in any category. 

I'm not sure what you're seeing that we're not, Pdub.  He's a nice player but he's not worth top-2 money IMO.  Again, if you think he is that's fine but the metrics say he's not. 

 

The contract extension should have been like 4 years $90M, not freaking $30M per year.

[Mr. P]

Nothing you guys are saying change the fact that Vernon is a terrible comparison. 
 

 

and again, stats don’t tell the whole story, watch him play.

[BlueInCanada]

12 minutes ago, Mr. P said:

Nothing you guys are saying change the fact that Vernon is a terrible comparison. 
 

 

and again, stats don’t tell the whole story, watch him play.

Oh yeah awful comparison.

Sorry didn't know that was being said. 

[Mr. P]

I also just read a stat, and I don’t subscribe to pff so I can’t confirm it, but last season the panthers defense had 200 less passing downs than the year before and Burns specifically had 300 less passing downs last season than Crosby. 
 

Your stats are gonna look a little lower when you have 300 less chances than others. 
 

Hence, stats don’t tell the whole story. 

[Sephiroth]

30 minutes ago, Mr. P said:

Nothing you guys are saying change the fact that Vernon is a terrible comparison. 
 

 

and again, stats don’t tell the whole story, watch him play.

I think what Shakes and I are saying is that Vernon was a "good not great" EDGE player that was paid like a top-5 player at his position.  I think that's a valid comparison to Burns right now. 

As far as what types of EDGE players they were I think they were certainly different. I think Vernon had less speed, but a little more power compared to Burns.  I also hated how he was "the king of almost making the play."  When you give that kind of money to a guy, he had better make the play, not almost make it.  

I guess we'll see though. 

[Herc]

1 hour ago, BlueInCanada said:

I think people just expect 30 million to come with Watt level impact of play. 

Burns will never be a Watt or a Hutcheson. 

However those type of guys will be resetting the pass rushing market in the next year or so and Burn's contract will just be the normal for 10+ sack type players. 

Pretty much.  The top ten or so guys at any position just take turns having the best contract depending on the timing 

[Herc]

I expect to be yelling “5-0!” like a corner boy many times this season when burns and thibs combine on a sack and nothing you guys say is going to ruin that for me!

[mastershake]

If Burns puts up 12 sacks in 2024 like he did in 2022 we'll all be hailing this as a good move.

[Mr. P]

So this guy who you claim hasn’t played well enough, plays as well as he already has, then it will be a great move?   That makes no sense  

 

If Burns is double teamed again, and with a low number of pass downs, puts up 8 sacks but is stellar against the run and is very disruptive, we all should be hailing this as a great move. 

[mastershake]

14 minutes ago, Mr. P said:

So this guy who you claim hasn’t played well enough, plays as well as he already has, then it will be a great move?   That makes no sense  

 

If Burns is double teamed again, and with a low number of pass downs, puts up 8 sacks but is stellar against the run and is very disruptive, we all should be hailing this as a great move. 

We're paying him as if he's a 12+ sack guy...so if he produces 12 sacks, like he did 1/5 of his seasons, we'll all be saying it was a great move.

[BlueInCanada]

25 minutes ago, Mr. P said:

So this guy who you claim hasn’t played well enough, plays as well as he already has, then it will be a great move?   That makes no sense  

 

If Burns is double teamed again, and with a low number of pass downs, puts up 8 sacks but is stellar against the run and is very disruptive, we all should be hailing this as a great move. 

We'll he's going to be compared to his peers with the same price tag.

So if guys around him are putting up 15+ sacks and are disruptive against the run and taking double teams.

While Burns is only putting up 8 sacks.

Then maybe it won't be looked at so fondly. 

[gmenroc]

Maybe they are looking at his ability and injecting that next to Dex and opposite Thibs to derive value.

May not make sense to some, but vision doesn't always project based on past stats.  You have to take a shot.

 

[BlueInCanada]

14 minutes ago, gmenroc said:

Maybe they are looking at his ability and injecting that next to Dex and opposite Thibs to derive value.

May not make sense to some, but vision doesn't always project based on past stats.  You have to take a shot.

 

Oh he has more value than just sacks.

Simply having a healthy edge rusher across from Thibs is going to help immensely.

Im just saying it's always a numbers game in the NFL with contract numbers usually being the defining factor for most fans on a players worth.

He's paid like one of if not the best DE in football now, hopefully he can obtain that hype or he's going to be run out by the media sooner rather than later.

It's like Barkley and the RB position, does Barkley deserve to be paid like the second best back in the NFL? When guys who are making 1/8th that contract who can stay healthy for 17 games and get somewhat similar production are out there? 

Safeties are now feeling the effect too. 

But DE/edge rusher whatever they call themselves have always been and always will be a position that makes top dollar even if the production isn't always there. 

[mastershake]

That's another factor too. If Thibs himself puts up 14-17 sacks with Burns on the other end, we may all be perfectly happy with Burns at like 8-9 sacks.

[Mr. P]

54 minutes ago, mastershake said:

We're paying him as if he's a 12+ sack guy...so if he produces 12 sacks, like he did 1/5 of his seasons, we'll all be saying it was a great move.

 

 

right so the guy y’all are saying hasn’t performed well enough, just has to perform like he already has. 
 

Sounds like he did perform well enough if all he has to do is repeat it. 

[BlueInCanada]

3 minutes ago, Mr. P said:

 

 

right so the guy y’all are saying hasn’t performed well enough, just has to perform like he already has. 
 

Sounds like he did perform well enough if all he has to do is repeat it. 

Who's y'all? 

 

[Mr. P]

33 minutes ago, BlueInCanada said:

Who's y'all? 

 

 

anyone who said or believes he hasn’t performed well enough to earn the trade or contract. 

[TaylorBanksCarsonVanPelt]

3 hours ago, gmenroc said:

Maybe they are looking at his ability and injecting that next to Dex and opposite Thibs to derive value.

May not make sense to some, but vision doesn't always project based on past stats.  You have to take a shot.

 

This... take a shot... and he will be paired on the opposite side from Thibs and Dex.  It is up to Dex and the LB's to stop the run.... and the edge guys to contain.  I think this will help Thibs as well as Burns.  I think this is an upgrade reminiscent of the early lines that Spags had.

[mastershake]

20 hours ago, Mr. P said:

 

 

right so the guy y’all are saying hasn’t performed well enough, just has to perform like he already has. 
 

Sounds like he did perform well enough if all he has to do is repeat it. 

He's not averaging 12+ sacks per season. 4/5ths of the time he's been below 10.