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Sephiroth

What I've been saying since Gettleman's hiring

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The "IT'S A PASSING LEAGUE!" talk is true, but if you're into winning you need a running game. 

 

 

Rushing stats.jpg

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I've mentioned this in the wildcard thread.

The top 5 passing attacks one one made the playoffs but the top 5 rushing attacks four made the playoffs.

I think it's simply because there are very few QBs in the NFL who can put their team on the back and carry them to a win.

Whereas it's much easier to have a good running game make an average QB better, they don't have to do as much. 

Not to mention being able to control the flow of the game and have much less risk on the running game.

 

 

 

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Well, the graphic does say this is the first time it’s happened since the 1970 merger. 

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Gettleman was right about where the league was headed, he was just later to realize it than at least a half dozen other teams. Too little too late pal.

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It’s a season of overcorrection.  At the end of the day the modern rules favor passing 

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11 minutes ago, Herc said:

It’s a season of overcorrection.  At the end of the day the modern rules favor passing 

But even going back the last five or six season, typically the best rushing attacks in the NFL are in more often the post season then the top passing attacks.

2018; 8 of the top 10 rushing teams went, compared to only 5 of the top passing teams.

2017; 6 of the top 10 rushing went and 5 of the top passing went.

2016;  They split at sending top 5 in each category

If anything the league has started to send more rushing teams to the playoffs the last 5 years or so.

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9 hours ago, Herc said:

It’s a season of overcorrection.  At the end of the day the modern rules favor passing 

I think its partly about how football is played at the lower levels, and partly because offenses are taking advantage of defensive line ups that favor stopping the pass game. 

and then of course there's the kneel-to-win fallacy.... teams that are winning games are more likely to be running the ball. 

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42 minutes ago, CrazedDogs said:

I think its partly about how football is played at the lower levels, and partly because offenses are taking advantage of defensive line ups that favor stopping the pass game. 

and then of course there's the kneel-to-win fallacy.... teams that are winning games are more likely to be running the ball. 

Yeah your second point is what I mean.  Nickel had pretty much become the base defense for everyone, so some smart teams take advantage.  Teams will copy, it’ll swing too much the other way in x amount of years, and then some team in 2026 will throw 70 passes a game 

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11 hours ago, BlueInCanada said:

But even going back the last five or six season, typically the best rushing attacks in the NFL are in more often the post season then the top passing attacks.

2018; 8 of the top 10 rushing teams went, compared to only 5 of the top passing teams.

2017; 6 of the top 10 rushing went and 5 of the top passing went.

2016;  They split at sending top 5 in each category

If anything the league has started to send more rushing teams to the playoffs the last 5 years or so.

This. 

Also, take a look at the Super Bowl winners. The Packers in 2011 were the last real high-flyers to win it all. 

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The only point I’m making is that the nfl attempts more passes and attempts less runs than they did 15 years ago when we had running backs scoring tds in the high 20s.  

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On 1/10/2020 at 3:09 PM, Sephiroth said:

The "IT'S A PASSING LEAGUE!" talk is true, but if you're into winning you need a running game. 

 

 

Rushing stats.jpg

Except that stat is a disingenuous outlier. Has never happened before in the modern era. Usually, teams are pretty good at both. 

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On 1/11/2020 at 10:30 AM, Sephiroth said:

This. 

Also, take a look at the Super Bowl winners. The Packers in 2011 were the last real high-flyers to win it all. 

I'm not saying teams don't pass more, shit we have QBs who throw for 5000+ yards, but typically the better rushing attacks in the NFL and an average passing attacks see the post season more, then the teams with good passing attacks and average run games.

Atleast the last few years.

I mean it's cyclical, the offences are getting pass happy so defences are getting smaller and smaller, 230 pound DEs, more nickle fronts, less LBs on the field. So here comes teams with mauling Olines who can push these guys out of the way and run some power football.

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The Titans won because the Ravens turned the ball over three times and failed to convert like 4 fourth down plays. 

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3 hours ago, Storm said:

The Titans won because the Ravens turned the ball over three times and failed to convert like 4 fourth down plays. 

Hence: Defense. 

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Can’t believe the chiefs grinded out that 24 point comeback and then managed another 27 points.  That was a real bring your lunch pail to work performance

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On 1/10/2020 at 4:38 PM, Pdouble said:

Well, the graphic does say this is the first time it’s happened since the 1970 merger. 

This. You don't draw a trend line through one data point.

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On 1/11/2020 at 9:27 PM, Storm said:

Except that stat is a disingenuous outlier. Has never happened before in the modern era. Usually, teams are pretty good at both. 

I agree. 

But if you listen to the talking heads on ESPN, NFL network... hell, even here... they'd lead you to believe that "the running game is dead," "RB isn't an important position," etc.  Running games are important and except for a few outliers (Moss-era Patriots, Green Bay, etc) most teams need to have a good one to win it all. 

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The run game isn’t dead, it’s just how much capital should you invest in a player who plays a position that has a large supply of talent, a short shelf life, and more specialization/time sharing than ever before

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20 minutes ago, Herc said:

The run game isn’t dead, it’s just how much capital should you invest in a player who plays a position that has a large supply of talent, a short shelf life, and more specialization/time sharing than ever before

That's a fair point. 

I'm more talking about the people who said we didn't need a road-grading O-line because "it's a passing league anyway." 

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Yup..that’s one of the reasons why you should never spend a high draft pick on a running back. 

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57 minutes ago, Herc said:

Like Quentin Nelson 😡😡

I actually had wanted Nelson/Chubb for 1st/2nd round picks.  

I still have faith in Barkley/Hernandez though. 

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15 hours ago, MakeMeSomeFoodHo said:

Yup..that’s one of the reasons why you should never spend a high draft pick on a running back. 

Hey....he's black at least! :)

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