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good but pretty depressing article


Herc
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three of this subforum's favorite topics: injuries, reese's drafts, and eli's contract (i still think we're making the playoffs)

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2015 NFL PREVIEW

Giants of the NFL’s Disabled List

Tom Coughlin hasn’t guided his team to a winning record since 2012, and unless he develops some magical healing powers over his oft-injured roster, he may be headed to a similar finish in 2015 and to one of the NFL’s notorious forced retirements.

BY BILL BARNWELL ON AUGUST 21, 2015
tom-coughlin-tri-e1440153368995.jpg?w=75

 

This is the Giants’ year, right? Tom Coughlin is surely hoping that the biorhythms of football have his team ready for its third Super Bowl title in nine seasons. The Giants won the Super Bowl in the fourth year of his reign with the team, you see, and four years later, they unexpectedly won another. And now, four years after that triumph, we’re about to enter Coughlin’s 12th year at the helm, so we’re due for another run from Eli and the boys to a legacy-sealing, Hall of Fame–confirming championship. Might as well just take the rest of the preview off.

You can probably poke a couple of holes in that logic. The baseline for this year’s Giants isn’t winning a title, but if they don’t make the playoffs or show some signs of improvement, it may also be Coughlin’s last run with Big Blue. After avoiding a losing record for eight consecutive years, Coughlin’s Giants have now posted 7-9 and 6-10 records over the past two seasons. A third consecutive losing season could be fatal; more than 60 percent of coaches who posted losing records in three consecutive seasons have been fired during the subsequent offseason, and while the Giants haven’t been too far from competing, they’re also a veteran team in the hands of a quarterback who is likely entering the final years of his career. As ownership wonders whether they should make Eli Manning the highest-paid player in football, they’ll simultaneously have to wonder if the best thing for their future might also involve getting him a new head coach.

 

It’s never a good sign when a team moves on from a pair of long-serving coordinators under a head coach; those moves can often be the foreshocks before the earthquake, especially if they don’t work. Over the past two offseasons, both of Coughlin’s coordinators have left town. After a dismal 2013 season that saw the Giants finish 31st in offensive DVOA, offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride “retired,” a term that should remind you of the time Bruce Arians did the same thing. And last year, after the Giants fell 18 spots to24th in defensive DVOA, the team “parted ways” with one-time head-coaching candidate Perry Fewell and replaced him with one-time head coach Steve Spagnuolo.

 

You can tell that the Giants want to let those longtime servants leave with their head held high, given that neither was publicly fired. (If the team did decide to fire Coughlin, it’s all but guaranteed it would be announced as a retirement.) You can also tell that there’s a sense of unease with how things are going. It’s unclear whether Coughlin or ownership made the final decisions about the firings, but there have been major issues with this team on both sides of the football in recent years.

It hasn’t been pretty. The Giants had not experienced a five-game losing streak since Coughlin’s first season in 2004 before breaking off six- and seven-game losing streaks in 2013 and 2014, respectively. They have three victories over teams with winning records over that time frame, and two of them came against teams that started or played their third-string quarterback for most of the game.1 They are 4-0 against Washington and 9-19 against the rest of the league.

1. In 2013, when injuries forced the Packers to start Scott Tolzien, and an early Michael Vick injury required the Eagles to use Matt Barkley.

The most worrisome part of the whole problem is that I’m not sure Coughlin can do anything about his team’s fatal flaw. He has grown and evolved as a coach during his lengthy run in New York, but there’s a job skill he isn’t about to pick up overnight at age 68: doctor.2

2. The Giants also changed team physicians this offseason, but it was a transition from longtime chief Russell Warren to Scott Rodeo, who has been serving on staff for 15 years.

stevie-brown-tri.jpg?w=1024&h=683Al Bello/Getty Images

 

 

 

Medical Tom

You may think your favorite team suffers its fair share of injuries. Giants fans can say that with some quantitative confidence. The newly released Football Outsiders Almanac 2015 notes that the Giants led the league in Adjusted Games Lost3 for the second consecutive season. They’ve managed to do this without losing Manning, who has yet to miss a start because of injury in his professional career, but the Giants have otherwise been decimated by injuries up and down the roster.

3. To be up front, a statistic I developed during my time at Football Outsiders.

 

 

To put things in perspective, let’s plot out the ideal 22 starters the Giants would have put onto the field given the players on their roster after the draft in 2013 and 2014, and see how they fared health-wise. I’m not even going to include safety Will Hill, who was suspended for four games in 2013 and released after receiving a six-game suspension in June 2014. Let’s start with the 2013 depth chart:

Pos Player Injury Games Missed
QB Eli Manning 0
RB David Wilson neck 11 R
B Henry Hynoski shoulder 13
WR Victor Cruz multiple 2
WR Hakeem Nicks groin 1
TE Brandon Myers 0
T Will Beatty 0
T Justin Pugh 0
G David Diehl multiple 5
G Chris Snee hip 13
C David Baas multiple 13
DE Justin Tuck 0
DE Jason Pierre-Paul shoulder 5
DT Linval Joseph multiple 1
DT Cullen Jenkins 0
LB Keith Rivers 0
LB Dan Connor neck 15
LB Jacquian Williams 0
CB Corey Webster multiple 12
CB Prince Amukamara 0
S Stevie Brown knee 16
S Antrel Rolle 0

Those 22 players combined to miss 107 games, roughly the equivalent of wiping six and a half starters off the roster for the entire season before Week 1. You can note that the receiving corps stayed relatively healthy, a fate that would sadly not remain the same in 2014. Let’s run through that depth chart:

Pos Player Injury Games Missed
QB Eli Manning 0
RB David Wilson neck 16
RB Rashad Jennings knee 5
WR Odell Beckham hamstring 4
WR Victor Cruz knee 10
TE Larry Donnell 0
T Will Beatty 0
T Justin Pugh quadriceps 2
G Chris Snee multiple 16
G Geoff Schwartz multiple 14
C J.D. Walton 0
DE Jason Pierre-Paul 0
DE Mathias Kiwanuka knee 5
DT Johnathan Hankins 0
DT Cullen Jenkins calf 4
LB Jameel McClain 0
LB Jon Beason multiple 12
LB Jacquian Williams concussion 7
CB Prince Amukamara biceps 8
CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 0
S Antrel Rolle 0
S Stevie Brown 0

Slightly healthier in 2014, I suppose, but the Giants still managed to top the 100 mark by making it to 103 games missed. They lost two starters to retirement in training camp thanks to injuries, with Chris Snee felled by hip and elbow injuries and David Wilson forced to retire because of spinal stenosis. And this is without including expected rotational contributors like Walter Thurmond, Trumaine McBride, Jerrel Jernigan, and Robert Ayers, who would combine to add another 42 missed games to the total.

As much as I would love to tell you the Giants are going to be healthier in 2015, I can’t really say that, given that they’re already dealing with long-term injuries to starters before the halfway point of the preseason. Will Beatty is out until November at the earliest with a torn pectoral muscle, while starting safety candidate Mykkele Thompson suffered a season-ending torn Achilles last week. Geoff Schwartz hasn’t been able to practice with an ankle problem, and the most notable injury still remains undiagnosed, as the Giants have not seen Jason Pierre-Paul’s hand since the star end blew off at least one finger in a fireworks accident this July.

This isn’t necessarily news. I wrote about the Giants’ injury woes in the context of general manager Jerry Reese’s recent drafts in October 2013. And that even undersells how much Reese’s draft picks have struggled to stay healthy, given that the article came before Wilson retired and both Jernigan and Prince Amukamara suffered serious injuries. Odell Beckham, a 2014 first-rounder, missed all of his rookie preseason and the first four games of the regular season with a torn hamstring, although it obviously didn’t affect him very much once he made it onto the field.

justin-pugh-tri.jpg?w=1024&h=681Michael Thomas/Getty Images

 

 

Roster 911

Whether it’s injuries, poor decisions, or a combination of the two, Reese’s drafts have left the cupboard threadbare. The Giants roster is almost entirely made up of free agents and players on rookie deals. Virtually none of Reese’s draft picks from 2007 to 2011 — contributors who would be on their second contracts — remain on the roster. Just four of Reese’s 38 draft picks from that time frame are still on the books: Beatty, Pierre-Paul, Amukamara, and long-snapper Zak DeOssie. It’s only fair to include Cruz, a 2010 undrafted free agent, as well as 2011 undrafted free agents Henry Hynoski and Mark Herzlich. That’s still a total of just seven players. The Packers, who the Giants beat during each of their Super Bowl runs, can boast 13 such players on their roster.

The core of players Reese has locked up on rookie deals isn’t especially inspiring, either. The 2012 draft was understandably hurt by the career-ending concerns surrounding Wilson’s spine, but the only starter on the team from that draft is Rueben Randle, who may be the team’s third wideout this year if Cruz is as healthy as he says publicly. The 2013 draft delivered promising defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins in the second round, but first-rounder Justin Pugh has been a disappointment, while nobody else has clawed out a starting role. Hankins is the only player from those two drafts who profiles as an above-average NFL regular.

I know what you’re about to say as I get to the 2014 draft, and it might be the reason Reese still has his job. It would have been basically impossible for the Giants to fire Reese after he nabbed Beckham with the 12th pick in the first round, and obviously, I have nothing but kind words to say about the ODB selection. It speaks to just how random the drafting process can be; Reese had one of the most immediately influential drafts in recent memory during his first year at the helm, with the likes of Aaron Ross and Kevin Boss playing meaningful roles during their 2007 championship season.

He’s been very erratic ever since before landing one of the best draft picks of the decade (at least so far) in 2014. You have to give him credit for Beckham, and it’s unclear whether the injury concerns come from player selection or player development, but the broader body of work suggests that there’s something broken with the Giants’ process in terms of drafting and developing in-house talent.

Struggling to deliver cheap, competent talent through the draft, Reese has been forced to fill out his roster with mid-tier free agents over the past couple of seasons. Those moves didn’t work out especially well last year; while Ayers delivered value as a rotation end, many of the other veteran additions — Schwartz, Thurmond, Rashad Jennings, and J.D. Walton — either failed to stay healthy or play particularly well. A similar deal for O’Brien Schofield disappeared after he failed his physical. Reese also re-signed trade acquisition Jon Beason after the former Carolina star’s first healthy stretch in three years, only for Beason to get injured again shortly after signing his extension.

This year, it was mostly more of the same. Good teams find backups and special-teams contributors like Dwayne Harris, J.T. Thomas, and Jonathan Casillas late in the draft, nab them as rookie free agents, or acquire them as veterans on contracts with no guarantees. Each of the three got meaningful money, and it’s hard to really see who the Giants were bidding against to grab them. Reese wasn’t able to bring in star Patriots safety Devin McCourty and otherwise left his gaping hole at the position unfilled before trading up to draft (already-injured) Landon Collins, who will have to start from day one. The aforementioned Thompson injury led the Giants to retread Brandon Meriweather, who has been one of the worst safeties in football over the past several seasons. Thankfully, he’s come in for the veteran’s minimum of $870,000.

eli-manning-tri.jpg?w=1024&h=683Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The Eli Issue

Regardless of what happens with the rest of the roster, Reese has a decision to make on his franchise quarterback. It’s seemed clear that the Giants were waiting for the other quarterbacks from the Class of 2004 to get their third extensions before working on a deal for Manning, and with both Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers picking up new deals in recent months, it’s now Manning’s turn.

Those deals didn’t make things easier for the Giants. Even if you think Manning is the worst quarterback of the three, which is fair to say if Roethlisberger continues to stay healthy, the reality is that Manning has played well enough to credibly ask for a comparable deal to those other two. Given that Roethlisberger got $65 million over the next three years of his deal and Rivers managed to up that figure to $68 million five months later, you better believe Manning’s going to try to end up with a three-year number in the $70 million range as part of a four- or five-year deal. That’s why the chatter appeared about Manning wanting to become the highest-paid player in football, a report his agent likely leaked even if Manning disavows any knowledge of such a claim.

In a vacuum, it’s absurd for Eli to become the highest-paid player in football. Even the 2014 version of Eli that returned to form wouldn’t be worth that kind of money relative to what other quarterbacks on the market are making. As I wrote about when Tony Romo signed his extension in Dallas, though, NFL contract negotiations aren’t about performance. They’re about leverage.

And realistically, right now, Eli Manning has all the leverage. The Giants don’t really have any other option as Manning enters the final year of his deal. They’ve already eaten up cap space by waiting this long to enter serious negotiations; Manning had the league’s largest cap hit in 2013 ($20.9 million, more than $3 million ahead of second-ranked Matthew Stafford) and its third-largest hit in 2014 ($20.4 million) before falling all the way to fifth ($19.8 million) this season. If they can’t come to an extension with Manning, they could franchise him for 2016, but that would be a raise to $23.7 million. The following year, that figure would rise to $28.4 million, getting Manning over $52 million in a two-year span. At those rates, it would be more financially prudent to just give him a deal with $69 million spread over its first three seasons.

The alternative would be letting him go for free, which creates all kinds of other problems. The Giants have no path to their quarterback of the future; the other passers on the roster are 2013 fourth-rounder Ryan Nassib and journeyman Ricky Stanzi, neither of whom has shown any sign of being ready to take the reins. To have a high enough draft pick to take a young quarterback, the Giants will have to have a dismal season in 2016, a move that could very well get Reese fired and cause Coughlin to either retire or be forcefully retired. It’s hard to imagine that Coughlin, who would then be 70, would want to coach his way through a total rebuild. And the Giants would basically be wasting a year or two of Beckham’s rookie contract; the money they would be saving on a quarterback would essentially be about to go to Beckham anyway.

Re-signing Manning is the best option available to the Giants, but it’s also hardly a guarantee of success on its own. It wouldn’t be a surprise if 2014 was better than any year Manning will put up from here on out, and it was only good for a 6-10 season. There’s scant statistical evidence suggesting the Giants are primed to take a huge step forward and claim the title in a difficult NFC East. About the best thing you can do is point to their offensive DVOA splits and mention that they were eighth in the league during the second half of the season, which roughly coincides with Odell Beckham turning into a werewolf.

Even if you count on Manning and Beckham playing at a high level, it’s easy to see this team struggling to patch up its holes elsewhere. The defense is an enormous question mark at just about every position, especially if Pierre-Paul isn’t around to serve as a primary pass-rusher. The health concerns surrounding the team seem unlikely to subside, even if it doesn’t necessarily produce the league’s most-injured squad for the third year in a row. The offensive line, a weakness now for several seasons, is already riddled with injuries. If they’re going to be healthier in 2015, they haven’t exhibited many signs of that in the preseason.

And if they don’t play at a high level, it’s going to bring further attention to Coughlin’s future. The Giants, firm believers in the idea that a coach should never enter the final year of his contract, have given Coughlin a one-year extension to keep his tenure going in New York. If the Giants stay under .500 for the third consecutive season and Beckham gets injured, it’s tough to imagine Coughlin getting another extension to that deal. It might not be his fault — it could be injuries, Reese’s drafting, the team’s cap constraints, or likely a combination of the three — but Tom Coughlin may still end up being the one who takes the fall.

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Great article, sadly. I especially agree with the "Roster 911" section.

 

TC is a good coach, but holy shit is his conditioning staff bad. Reese is really the guy that should go after this year, but I suspect it'll be Coughlin so that JR can finally "build his team."

 

God help us.

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Justin Pugh is a disappointment? Huh?

 

I must be the only one that doesn't think the Giants offensive line is going to be leaps and bounds below the rest of the teams in the league. They will be average to slightly above average. They keep Eli on his feet and everything will be fine. They did it last year and on paper, they've improved this year. The biggest concern is run blocking but I don't ever see that addressed anywhere in these assessments. We could use a healthy Geoff Schwartz who has been the biggest waste of space to ever ink a contract with the Giants.

 

And Jerry Reese can only sign and draft players to fill roles. He can't keep them healthy and he certainly can't develop them. I can't think of many glaringly terrible picks or signings by him. Geoff Schwartz sticks out. David Baas, maybe.

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I think the team is heading in the right direction and given time will win another super bowl before Eli Manning retires. Plenty of blame to go around starting with players, to the coaching staff up to management.

 

This is the team and the coach for Jerry Reese, he has had plenty of opportunity to replace Coughlin.

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Herc, I don't see how you can realistically expect this team as making the playoffs.

The defense will be lucky to be 16th/middle of the pack.

The offense with Eli/Beckum/Cruz will have to carry them...and I'm not sure you can expect Eli to be that consistent, the WR to stay healthy, and the line to be decent enough.

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Robinson, Brewer, Austin, Williams, Wilson, Paysinger, Hosley, Mosley and Taylor are just some of the "glaringly terrible" draft picks

 

I guess we will have differing opinions on this. Like I said, Reese doesn't develop them and he isn't the one providing playing time or not. Adrian Robinson, for example, by nearly all accounts, was regarded as something of a sleeper when he was picked. A guy who wasn't utilized much in college but had the skills, strength, and size. How is it Reese's fault that he has never been given playing time? Or, how is it not on Adrien Robinson that he's not made much of his NFL career? Paysinger and Hosely are still on the team and have contributed. Are you talking about David Wilson? You're suggesting Reese should be able to sense spinal stenosis? And many of the guys you listed have fallen victim to injury constantly throughout their career.

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I guess we will have differing opinions on this. Like I said, Reese doesn't develop them and he isn't the one providing playing time or not. Adrian Robinson, for example, by nearly all accounts, was regarded as something of a sleeper when he was picked. A guy who wasn't utilized much in college but had the skills, strength, and size. How is it Reese's fault that he has never been given playing time? Or, how is it not on Adrien Robinson that he's not made much of his NFL career? Paysinger and Hosely are still on the team and have contributed. Are you talking about David Wilson? You're suggesting Reese should be able to sense spinal stenosis? And many of the guys you listed have fallen victim to injury constantly throughout their career.

 

Coaching can only go so far. There are 1696 NFL players on 32 teams rosters with 160 players practice squad. 1024 players are cut to make that roster in Sept before the start of the season. We hear time and time again the speed of the NFL and the players who have succeeded to long term careers are the ones who can slow down the game in their mind. This is as important as the physical aspect of the game.

 

Players that have a limited college experience have a much steeper learning curve, very few of them have succeeded in the NFL long term. Some players just will not succeed in the NFL no matter how much coaching.

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Can we expect to see a lot of two tight end sets? I'm wondering because Larry Donnell was a beast in some games, disappeared and was prone to mental mistakes in others....and as of the updated depth chart, he's sitting behind Daniel Fells, who is probably more consistent and a better blocker but lacks the big play ability of Larry.

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This is around that time when people sit around with over analysis and come up with cockamamie crap theories. It isn't Reese's fault that things didn't pan out. Which other GM can safely say that he has an impeccable record with picks in the draft? If anything, its the fucking conditioning unit that has sucked balls since the last decade. I recall the conditioning problems were actually a discussion that spilled over from the GMB actually. My constant issue for a very long time was TC's fetish with his Co-ordinators since Gilbride had no business to be within a ten foot pole of an offensive playbook. Neither was Fewell. We have 2 very capable co-ordinators right now who have a knack of in-game adjustment - which we never had earlier. Now if only our OL can keep Eli on his feet our offense with Vereen will be very potent. Our defense only needs to keep us in games.

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I guess we will have differing opinions on this. Like I said, Reese doesn't develop them and he isn't the one providing playing time or not. Adrian Robinson, for example, by nearly all accounts, was regarded as something of a sleeper when he was picked. A guy who wasn't utilized much in college but had the skills, strength, and size. How is it Reese's fault that he has never been given playing time? Or, how is it not on Adrien Robinson that he's not made much of his NFL career? Paysinger and Hosely are still on the team and have contributed. Are you talking about David Wilson? You're suggesting Reese should be able to sense spinal stenosis? And many of the guys you listed have fallen victim to injury constantly throughout their career.

There was questions about Robinson coming out of college. I guess the toughest part of being a scout/GM is projecting what a player becomes. I never thought highly of Wilson, but has you alluded the coaches wouldn't play him because you have to block to get carries

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There was questions about Robinson coming out of college. I guess the toughest part of being a scout/GM is projecting what a player becomes. I never thought highly of Wilson, but has you alluded the coaches wouldn't play him because you have to block to get carries

 

That's not what I alluded to at all.

 

He was the starter going in to 2013.

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This is around that time when people sit around with over analysis and come up with cockamamie crap theories. It isn't Reese's fault that things didn't pan out. Which other GM can safely say that he has an impeccable record with picks in the draft? If anything, its the fucking conditioning unit that has sucked balls since the last decade. I recall the conditioning problems were actually a discussion that spilled over from the GMB actually. My constant issue for a very long time was TC's fetish with his Co-ordinators since Gilbride had no business to be within a ten foot pole of an offensive playbook. Neither was Fewell. We have 2 very capable co-ordinators right now who have a knack of in-game adjustment - which we never had earlier. Now if only our OL can keep Eli on his feet our offense with Vereen will be very potent. Our defense only needs to keep us in games.

 

There's plenty of blame to go around for sure... and as I said, TC's conditioning staff is awful... but I think Reese deserves the blunt of the criticism. It's not like these players are leaving the Giants and having great careers elsewhere... the coaches are getting what they can out of them, but that ain't much. Sure, there's cases of players being run into the ground like Hakeem Nicks, but there's also the Marvin Austins of JR's drafts that never amounted to anything with anyone. Even Linval Joseph who everyone was singing the blues about leaving didn't really do much in Minnesota last year.

 

The hole this team is in has more to do with Reese's 2008-2012 drafts than anything. These are the years you're supposed to be getting peak production out of those guys and instead we're wondering what happened to Jerrell Jernigan and paying top dollar for J.T. Thomas.

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@Seph - Agreed. None of those guys ever outlived or outperformed their rookie contracts. And for some reason we have been drafting as if we retired the LB position itself forever ever since LT retired - Armstead being probably the last 'star' this team had at the position. What the hell really happened in those drafts? Some top corners, Linemen just fucking disappeared underground?

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Great article, sadly. I especially agree with the "Roster 911" section.

 

TC is a good coach, but holy shit is his conditioning staff bad. Reese is really the guy that should go after this year, but I suspect it'll be Coughlin so that JR can finally "build his team."

 

God help us.

 

 

Here's my take....this team has no shot of hanging with the Cowboys and Eagles if they are once again the most injured team in the NFL. They have already fired two coordinators that I wasn't super high on, but at the same time, were saddled with injury prone and/or untough players. So now, the axe is hanging over Coughlin again.

 

If this team can't stay on the field, and Coughlin is fired, they shouldn't stop there. They should clean house, including tossing Reese and the training/conditioning staff out of their ass, and then look to hire the best head coach out there. They could have their pick of anyone, deservedly so, considering the caliber of the franchise and the NY market share.

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@Seph - Agreed. None of those guys ever outlived or outperformed their rookie contracts. And for some reason we have been drafting as if we retired the LB position itself forever ever since LT retired - Armstead being probably the last 'star' this team had at the position. What the hell really happened in those drafts? Some top corners, Linemen just fucking disappeared underground?

 

 

Yup...their best linebacker might be Kennard, a 5th round pick.

 

And yeah, this was an excellent article....really puts things in perspective.

 

I can't think of anyone other than Belichick who could have gotten 2 Championships out of this roster.

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Yep - the line looked decent last game. If they can give our QB that much time, I think this offense is going to be really fun to watch. And if they continue to do their thing and the defense loses us a couple games, come mid season - like a typical Spags team - the defense might rally and gel and the Giants might just have enough to make a push for the playoffs. And hell, if that happens - who knows?

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Philadelphia Eagles 11-5

New York Giants 10-6

Dallas Cowboys 9-7

Washington Redskins 3-13

 

 

I think the Cowboys have returned to their 1990s recipe - a bad ass offensive line - and will ride that to the Super Bowl.

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I think the Cowboys have returned to their 1990s recipe - a bad ass offensive line - and will ride that to the Super Bowl.

 

Yeah I don't think the loss of Murray will stop the Cowboys, they could have Ron Dayne putting up 2000 yard seasons behind that Oline.

 

But fuck it's the NFC East the 'Skins could be heading to the playoffs for all we know is this stupid division.

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