The Sky has officially fallen? I think so

[GA4M]

It's that Canadian air you're taking in.

[Sephiroth]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't we 0-4 in preseason each of the last two Superbowl years?

We were, but in those games our starters were playing well and it was the backups shitting the bed, not the other way around.

[Tempest]

Let me see if I can make it rain brimstone or just make a few of you cry

The NFL preseason matters a little more than you think

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/08/nfl-preason-playoffs-how-much-does-it-mean

If a team goes 4-0, that momentum might carry them into the regular season. If they’re 0-4, then preseason doesn’t matter at all, and you’ll rattle off the records of some of the all-time great teams who didn’t win in preseason (e.g. the 1991 Washington Redskins, who went 17-2 after an ugly 1-3 preseason).

 

But what’s the real answer? FTW looked at five years at data to find out that, surprisingly, you can find a little information about how a team will fare based on its preseason record. But only a little and only if you look real hard.

Granted, this is only five years of data with about 160 preseason wins and losses and 60 playoff teams, so it’s hardly gospel, but it does provide an interesting look into how the exhibition season can lead to the extra season in January.

 

 

There’s nothing in the numbers to ensure or remove playoff chances for teams based on preseason records. But teams that make the playoffs actually do tend to have better preseason records than teams that don’t. In the past five years, 75% of playoff teams have had two wins or more. Only 25% have had zero or one wins in the preseason. That’s a pretty startling statistic for a group of “meaningless” games.

 

But that’s only half the question. We can’t just look at how many 2-2 or 3-1 playoff teams made the postseason, but how many didn’t. That leads us to our next chart. In it, we look at the collective preseason win totals of teams from 2010-2014. The X-axis represents the number of wins each NFL team had in that specific preseason. (For example, in 2010, two teams had zero wins in the preseason, six teams had one win, 14 teams had two wins, nine teams had three wins, four teams had one win, and so on throughout each year. Note: In one year, the New York Giants won five games. Their total has been knocked down to four in these numbers.)

 

 

This is where it gets slightly more interesting. While getting two or more wins is still the best path to the playoffs, your percentage of making the playoffs with a given record barely changes. You’re actually more likely to get in with an 0-4 record than a 4-0 record.

 

In the chart above, for instance, a team had about a 40% chance of making the playoffs by going 0-4, 2-2, 3-1 or 4-0. Those percentages all hovered around 40%, which is, not surprisingly, how many teams get into the playoffs in a given year. So even though more teams disproportionately make it with 2-4 wins (that number would be 60% in everything were equal, it’s 75% instead), 40% of teams with an 0-4 mark are still making it in. The reason more teams in the playoffs have 2+ wins is because that’s what most teams have in the preseason. The outlier is 1-3, in which only 28% of teams make the playoffs, something I imagine would revert closer to the mean if we used a larger sample size.

 

Okay, now that we’ve gone way too deep into preseason football, what does it all mean? Basically, it’s better to go 2-2 than it is to go 0-4, but the percentage of teams making the playoffs with a specific preseason record is the same across the spectrum.

 

But, really, last year’s NFC East is a perfect example of what can be the utter meaningless and randomness of preseason games. The New York Giants went a perfect 5-0, then only went 6-10 in the regular season. Washington went 3-1, then only managed four wins in the regular season. Meanwhile, Dallas was 0-4 in exhibition games and went on to go 12-4 and came within a catch of going to the NFC championship.

[Allstarjim]

Though shalt not make judgements based on preseason games.

[CrazedDogs]

Preseason or not, that was one the worst displays of being prepared for a game from the coaching end of it. It never hurts to practice creativity either. I can only hope they were holding back, if not

 

Being prepared for a game? Its preseason.... they don't game plan for that shit!

[gmenroc]

 

Being prepared for a game? Its preseason.... they don't game plan for that shit!

 

By that argument, the Bengals didn't gameplan either. It was a backyard game of football with plays drawn up ahead of time. And the Giants got beat down. Imagine if the Bengals HAD gameplanned for our weaknesses or to take advantage of matchups?

[GA4M]

 

Being prepared for a game? Its preseason.... they don't game plan for that shit!

Yes, it's clear they didn't at all!

 

you always have some type plan, not just showing up to see how you can't run the ball, can't get on the same page with the QB and WR's, let the other teams offense have their way how they want it. my concern is, this team is going into yet another season with no continuity and looking lost, not just looking at this single game.

[Nas]

Same old same old with guys...soft tissues injuries, which have to once again make you wonder what the fuck the training staff is doing.

 

As much as I love TC, at some point, you need to turn the page on how this team physically prepares for games.

 

I find that type of injury on a young guy to be very disturbing... I blame the player.

[Sephiroth]

 

I find that type of injury on a young guy to be very disturbing... I blame the player.

Up until recently I'd go to 4-5 Giants games each year. Who knows what happens before the players hit the field but the pre warmup stretching on the field was seriously the routine we used to do in middle school.

[CrazedDogs]

 

By that argument, the Bengals didn't gameplan either. It was a backyard game of football with plays drawn up ahead of time. And the Giants got beat down. Imagine if the Bengals HAD gameplanned for our weaknesses or to take advantage of matchups?

 

well that isn't really my argument... I'm just saying that we don't know. Random crap happens in preseason games all the time. It doesn't really mean anything.

[CrazedDogs]

Yes, it's clear they didn't at all!

 

you always have some type plan, not just showing up to see how you can't run the ball, can't get on the same page with the QB and WR's, let the other teams offense have their way how they want it. my concern is, this team is going into yet another season with no continuity and looking lost, not just looking at this single game.

 

Given the completely new system on defense, which is likely missing its most notable player for the beginning of the season, and an offensive line whose lineup we don't even know yet?.... I think its more than a concern, its more like a probability. At least Beckham is fun to watch.

[GA4M]

 

Given the completely new system on defense, which is likely missing its most notable player for the beginning of the season, and an offensive line whose lineup we don't even know yet?.... I think its more than a concern, its more like a probability. At least Beckham is fun to watch.

I'd like to see more of Darkwa in real game action too.

[NightFire]

We were, but in those games our starters were playing well and it was the backups shitting the bed, not the other way around.

 

Wasn't it like this last year also? The difference is the backups and Washington won the game at the very end.

[CrazedDogs]

I'd like to see more of Darkwa in real game action too.

 

Yeah, he showed really good vision on Friday.

[Sephiroth]

 

Wasn't it like this last year also? The difference is the backups and Washington won the game at the very end.

From what I remember the starters were pretty terrible last year. There were a million excuses (Eli doesn't know the offense! McAdoo is just trying out the 3rd and 15 draw!) but the starters were bad no matter how you sliced it.

[Mr. P]

From what I remember the starters were pretty terrible last year. There were a million excuses (Eli doesn't know the offense! McAdoo is just trying out the 3rd and 15 draw!) but the starters were bad no matter how you sliced it.

 

Yeah and then Eli had arguably the best year of his career.

[GA4M]

 

Yeah and then Eli had arguably the best year of his career.

And that got us what?

[Mr. P]

And that got us what?

It got us more reason to not read too much into preseason.

[GA4M]

Well, the Jags might help with that too.

[Bigblue25]

Well, the Jags might help with that too.

The Jags who beat them last year?

[GA4M]

The Jags who beat them last year?

Knew someone would say that.

[Sephiroth]

The Jags who beat them last year?

The Jags with the league's best linebacking corps that we were VERY fortunate to land a marquee player like J. T. Thomas from.

 

Did you know he had ELEVEN tackles against the Giants last year? ELEVEN! The guy was all over the field!

[Sephiroth]

It got us more reason to not read too much into preseason.

Maybe not.

 

However, for the third straight year the Giants starters have looked like shit in the preseason. There's still three more games to get things fixed but that display sure wasn't encouraging.

[Balloonknot]

The Jags with the league's best linebacking corps that we were VERY fortunate to land a marquee player like J. T. Thomas from.

 

Did you know he had ELEVEN tackles against the Giants last year? ELEVEN! The guy was all over the field!

I did. I was at that game

[Allstarjim]

Listen, judgements made about preseason games are just silly. I don't even think you can make a good judgement of a team until after the first 3 or 4 REGULAR season games have been played. But if you are going to draw conclusions and analyze results from a preseason game in an attempt to forecast how good or bad this or any other team will be this season... then you absolutely don't do it after the FIRST preseason game... that's the WORST one to analyze, followed very closely by the last preseason game.

 

Again, if the team looks like hot garbage in the third preseason game... ok. Maybe there is a smidgeon cause for concern. Again... I won't be worried because it's JUST PRESEASON... but I won't criticize you too much for making a deal out of it. But the first preseason game?