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The Case Against Barkley


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#1 Sephiroth

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 08:12 PM

As evidenced by this video, his diet is poor, he doesn't follow instruction very well, and he looks slow. 

 

 

Also, there's this: 

 

 

 

 

he scouting reports on Saquon Barkley scream NFL stardom. No wonder he's in consideration to be the No. 2 overall pick by the New York Giants in this year's draft, or maybe even the No. 1 overall by the Cleveland Browns.

Barkley's floor is expected to be the No. 6 overall pick, when the Indianapolis Colts make their selection.

"He's special," one NFC scout said, before explaining Barkley was a better prospect than both Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette. Elliott was the fourth overall selection by the Dallas Cowboys in the 2016 NFL draft and Fournette was fourth overall pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars last year.

"You're talking about a 230-pound dude who runs sub-4.4 that has balance and run skills. It's rare," the scout added.

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Talent evaluators around the NFL seem to be in agreement that Barkley is legitimate, worth all the attention that has come his way. There is hardly a knock on the Penn State product.

"He's really, really good," one evaluator said.

For as impressive as Barkley is on and off the field, neither evaluator would take the running back with the second-overall pick if they were running the Giants. It has little to do with Barkley, but more to do with the draft slot, the Giants' needs (hello franchise quarterback!) and the position he plays.

Reggie Bush was the last running back selected with a top-two pick. That was 12 years ago, in 2006.

Bush's lack of overall success -- he was a solid player at the NFL level but never a star -- isn't among the reasons some teams would avoid selecting a running back that high in the draft. But others' success despite being drafted much later is a major factor.

RB draft value

There is a reason that quarterbacks traditionally dominate the top of drafts, and will likely do so again this year. Four quarterbacks are expected to be selected among the first five picks. It's because good ones are hard to find.

It's not the same for running backs, which seem to grow on trees these days. Good ones are available throughout the draft rather than almost exclusively in the first round.

Last year, the league's leading rusher (Kareem Hunt, Kansas City) and one of the top playmakers (Alvin Kamara, New Orleans) were drafted in the third round. The Philadelphia Eagles received a significant contribution from undrafted rookie running back Corey Clement.

The success of late-round running backs is more than a one-year anomaly. It has become the norm.

Of the 40 Pro Bowl running backs from the 2008-17 seasons, only 15 (38 percent) were first-round picks. During that same time, 21 of the 36 Pro Bowl quarterbacks (58 percent) were first-round selections. And 13 of those 21 quarterbacks were top-two picks.

Only one running back, Ronnie Brown, selected with a top-two pick has reached a Pro Bowl in the past decade.

Barkley may very well buck the trend. He is special, and universally considered the top running back in this year's draft. But this is also considered a deep running back draft, in which quality options are expected to be available in the later rounds.

"Strong running back draft," one talent evaluator said. "You can get good ones in the second and third rounds."

The financial and long-term commitment

If Barkley is selected with the No. 2 overall pick, his draft slot would guarantee a four-year deal worth approximately $30 million. That kind of guaranteed money is what All-Pros David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell, arguably the two best running backs in the game, are currently looking for in long-term deals.

Right now, Fournette has the largest guarantee among running backs based off his draft slot last season. Barkley would immediately have the largest guarantee among running backs the moment he is drafted by the Giants with the second pick.

Considering $30 million guaranteed would be 15th among all quarterbacks, you can see which position would provide the Giants a competitive advantage when it comes to team building. Eli Manning is slated to count $22.2 million against the salary cap this year.

The cheap starting quarterback would allow the Giants to invest heavily -- at least in the short-term -- in other positions, such as wide receiver and safety, where Odell Beckham Jr. and Landon Collins are looking for new contracts.

The combination of Beckham, Collins and Barkley being paid top dollar at wide receiver, safety and running back would likely affect the Giants' ability to allocate significant resources toward pillar positions such as quarterback, defensive line, offensive line and cornerback moving forward.

Is that the way general manager Dave Gettleman wants to build his team?

Some scouts have heralded Saquon Barkley as a generational talent, but his fit on this Giants team may not be the best. AP Photo/Chris Knight

Offensive centerpiece

Gettleman has expressed a desire to land a "gold jacket" player in this draft. Barkley seems to fit that criteria with his skills and profile. He can be the Giants' Bell alongside wide receiver Antonio Brown. He can contribute in the running and passing games.

But as long as Beckham is on the Giants' roster, Barkley will never be the centerpiece of the offense. And especially not with wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as complementary pieces.

The Giants will be built as a pass-first offense, unlike the Cowboys and Jaguars who were committed to be power and run-first teams when they drafted Elliott and Fournette, respectively.

A team with Beckham, Shepard and Engram is not designed to feature a power running game. None of the three are known for their blocking.

With this group, Barkley would be a complementary piece, albeit an expensive one with tremendous value in the passing game. Would he be worth it over a potential quarterback of the future?

"If I was New York [and didn't want a quarterback]," the scout said, "I would seriously consider trading out."

For more than one reason.

 



#2 Tempest

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 08:37 PM

They did get a couple of things wrong in that article.  I read it earlier then fact checked it and reread it again.

 

Bell wants a whole lot more than what Barkley would get at the number 2 slot in the draft.  Bell turned down a $60 million contract for five years.  Only way the Giants save money at QB is by cutting Manning soon after drafting a potential QB.  I think there is a competitive advantage of having Barkley & Beckham Jr.  We simply can't run 70% of the offense through Beckham and win a super bowl.  The Giants were a pass-first offense just like the Giants were a 4-3 defense.  What the Giants were in 2017 is not what they are going to be in 2018 because there is a new general manager and coaching staff in place.  Shurmur ran a balanced offense with the Vikings, he will do the same here with the Giants.

 

A potential QB over a real RB?  I'll take the real RB and get the next QB later on if necessary.



#3 BlueInCanada

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 11:56 PM

They did get a couple of things wrong in that article.  I read it earlier then fact checked it and reread it again.

 

Bell wants a whole lot more than what Barkley would get at the number 2 slot in the draft.  Bell turned down a $60 million contract for five years.  Only way the Giants save money at QB is by cutting Manning soon after drafting a potential QB.  I think there is a competitive advantage of having Barkley & Beckham Jr.  We simply can't run 70% of the offense through Beckham and win a super bowl.  The Giants were a pass-first offense just like the Giants were a 4-3 defense.  What the Giants were in 2017 is not what they are going to be in 2018 because there is a new general manager and coaching staff in place.  Shurmur ran a balanced offense with the Vikings, he will do the same here with the Giants.

 

A potential QB over a real RB?  I'll take the real RB and get the next QB later on if necessary.

 

This man, this man speaks the truth. 



#4 Sephiroth

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 12:17 PM

For the record, I'd be happy with Barkley on the team. I have to admit I'd be ok with Barkley, Darnold, Rosen, or Nelson. Anyone else in that spot would leave me a little disappointed.

#5 fringe

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 02:33 PM

Rodney Hampton is the only 1st round RB who was ever decent. That's enough for me to go QB. 



#6 Tempest

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 03:40 PM

Rodney Hampton is the only 1st round RB who was ever decent. That's enough for me to go QB. 

 

Going by a historical precedent, I'm more concerned he is Ron Dayne part II.  Because yeah the Giants would draft a Ron Dayne again.



#7 NSA

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 04:25 PM

And Ron Dayne was Ty Wheatley all over again. 

 

The highly drafted RB is rarely the smart play....

 

But I'm not sure Barkley is really even a RB.... he's also a 6', 230 lb receiver. 

 

I'm concerned that maybe the better comparison for him is a bigger Reggie Bush... also a 2nd overall pick, IIRC... and I remember Bush well, he had nothing going for him but to bounce outside and race to the edge, no interior running ability whatsoever - I never understood why he was picked so highly. The last guy with the same kind of size-speed profile that I can recall is Ronnie Brown, but I don't think Brown's vision is in the same class as Barkley's. I just don't know if Barkley's vision will translate to the NFL... that Barry Sanders shit works when you're hands down the best athlete on the field. At 230 lbs, will Barkley really be able to pull it off?

 

I'm not concerned about Barkley's tendency to go down quickly when he's well secured. Granted that with his measurable he could probably do more to fight through a lot of tackles, but something I've been thinking about lately is that its possible that a lot of RBs have short careers because they are not very smart or selective about when to run with power, and instead go full bore 99% of the time - i.e. David Wilson Syndrome. On the low end, I'm worried he could be a Dayne or a Bush..... but on the high end, another player you rarely saw take or give a big hit, the guy he really reminds me of.... is OJ Simpson. 



#8 Tempest

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 05:34 PM

I think Barkley is the real thing at RB, going to have a great career wherever he lands if he can stay healthy.  Healthy part is important because I'm looking at the second RB in the draft, Derrius Guice:  Seriously have to question his ability to stay healthy.  He might very well end up like Doug Martin.



#9 fringe

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 06:04 PM

 
Going by a historical precedent, I'm more concerned he is Ron Dayne part II.  Because yeah the Giants would draft a Ron Dayne again.

thats what Im saying - its not like we havent tried

#10 Iceman

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 11:45 AM

What about trade down for Nelson and grab Guice? Guice as per the other article - is a better between the tackles runner which is what this teams philosophy towards. I would like that actually



#11 Herc

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 12:22 PM

Yeah there are a bunch of options that would get me excited but i think the move that would make me happiest is trading down to 5 and getting Nelson.

#12 gmenroc

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 12:57 PM

I came into this thread expecting to see the Giants' offensive line depth chart.



#13 Nas

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:00 PM

Rodney Hampton is the only 1st round RB who was ever decent. That's enough for me to go QB. 

 

Not with Manning and Webb on the team... I'd prefer Barkely, Chubb, or Nelson... at that spot since there's no real trading partner in the top 8.  



#14 Nas

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:02 PM

What about trade down for Nelson and grab Guice? Guice as per the other article - is a better between the tackles runner which is what this teams philosophy towards. I would like that actually

 

Looking up and down the draft board, we don't have a trading partner to trade with and still guarantee a player we really like...



#15 Vendetta

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 09:40 PM

I question Barkley's toughness and push inside. I think it's just average at best. Everything else about him is top notch though, and is especially dangerous if you get him out in space, and is a headache for DC's to plan against.

 

The worry there though is, is he just a bigger version of Reggie Bush then? I think his floor is Reggie Bush/Freeman McNeil, best case Edgerrin James or Todd Gurley.



#16 gmenroc

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Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:47 AM

The thing I read about Barkley as his only flaw is going down fairly easy...doesn't fight for that extra yard. And I don't know that I have a huge problem with that. Turnovers and injuries happen in that last yard or two...

But on 3rd and 3...not fighting for that extra yard, getting only 2...is where it might hurt.

I know that's extremely picky and I can't verify, but it's worth mentioning

#17 NSA

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Posted 17 April 2018 - 11:37 AM

The thing I read about Barkley as his only flaw is going down fairly easy...doesn't fight for that extra yard. And I don't know that I have a huge problem with that. Turnovers and injuries happen in that last yard or two...

But on 3rd and 3...not fighting for that extra yard, getting only 2...is where it might hurt.

I know that's extremely picky and I can't verify, but it's worth mentioning

 

there are those snaps where he needs two, and he puts his head down and he gets two. I think he's put some power on film, he's just very selective about it.... and I like that, that's how he'll get to a ten year career. 

 

Where he scares me is on 2nd and long, or deep in his own territory, he's still trying to hit the home run. he's going to have some ugly, team killing plays early in his career. 



#18 fringe

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Posted 17 April 2018 - 01:33 PM

 

Not with Manning and Webb on the team... I'd prefer Barkely, Chubb, or Nelson... at that spot since there's no real trading partner in the top 8.  

That's what we said about Simms till it was too late. 



#19 Vendetta

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Posted 17 April 2018 - 03:01 PM

The thing I read about Barkley as his only flaw is going down fairly easy...doesn't fight for that extra yard. And I don't know that I have a huge problem with that. Turnovers and injuries happen in that last yard or two...

But on 3rd and 3...not fighting for that extra yard, getting only 2...is where it might hurt.

I know that's extremely picky and I can't verify, but it's worth mentioning

 

Perhaps. Another possibility is, on 3 and 3, he's a huge headache for DC's because you could put him in motion and/or run a pass pattern with him, or run him to the flanks where he could be deadly. Even another possibility is DC's have to stack the box because of him, freeing up our WR's and/or Engram with favorable matchups.



#20 NSA

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Posted 24 April 2018 - 06:51 PM

I just watched every snap of his much critiqued, low production, worst game of season vs. Rutgers... I'm not concerned, he looked good even while being bottled up.

#21 Sephiroth

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Posted 24 April 2018 - 07:03 PM

His chips were pretty terrible, but otherwise it's tough to think his performance was that bad when there's defensive  guys taking the handoff from the QB on every play. 

 



#22 NSA

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Posted 24 April 2018 - 08:44 PM

Seph, that was what I thought too. His blocking looked shoddy on this tape. I've seen better blocking by him elsewhere, but MJD he is not.

But he shows good vision in this game, despite the relatively low output.

#23 Vendetta

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Posted 24 April 2018 - 09:46 PM

As I said before, worst case, he's a bigger version of Reggie Bush. Best case, Edgerrin James or Todd Gurley.

 

I still say Gallman is tougher overall.



#24 NSA

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Posted 25 April 2018 - 11:45 AM

Gallman is tough as hell, but the way he runs he'll have a four year career, tops.

 

If Barkley is Edgerrin James, I would be trilled to have him. 



#25 BronxEagle

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Posted 25 April 2018 - 01:04 PM

I hope The Giants draft Barkley.

 

That means at least 2 more seasons with Eli.






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