Kiper Mock 1.0

[Herc]

Johnny Manziel *

Houston Texans (2-14)

COLLEGE: Texas A&M

AGE: 21

HT: 6-0

WT: 205

POS: QB

Analysis: I spoke to a number of high-ranking NFL evaluators this week, and this is the one QB anyone felt certain was a top-5 pick. So consider this an early bet, with one major caveat: Bill O'Brien just arrived, is still putting his staff together, knows a good QB when he sees one, and hasn't had enough time (if any) to study the draft class. But we know quarterback is a major need here. O'Brien likes a QB with presence, a leader and a guy who will out-prepare the competition. And while Manziel has gotten his share of bad press, he's a dynamic talent, and I feel he can lead at the next level; I'm not alone in that opinion. While Manziel is currently ranked No. 11 on my Big Board, this reflects the draft.

Manziel doesn't fit the old prototypes of a QB drafted No. 1, and I have concerns about how well he can protect himself given his smaller frame, but he is a magician on the field, and is made for the current NFL. This league protects and welcomes QBs who can improvise, run and make plays beyond the playbook. It's early, but Manziel is a special player and has the draft process to prove it further.

PLAYER CARD

2

Jake Matthews

St. Louis Rams (7-9) (From WAS)

COLLEGE: Texas A&M

AGE: 21

HT: 6-5

WT: 309

POS: OT

Analysis: Rams general manager Les Snead has already said that he'll take calls on this draft slot, which makes plenty of sense given the fact that the three teams drafting directly after St. Louis need a quarterback. So if you want a certain QB, you might be trying to work out a deal with the Rams to assure you get him. That said, I can't project a trade, and Matthews would be a tremendous fit for the Rams, who need to bring in an upgrade at left tackle this offseason given the uncertainty regarding Jake Long's health. Matthews has proved capable of dominating on both the left and right side, in fact, and comes with more assurances in that regard than the tackles drafted at the top of the board last season. At tackle, I also think Greg Robinson could compete with Matthews to be the first one taken, and I don't think it's out of the question that St. Louis takes a QB or top defensive lineman.

PLAYER CARD

3

Jadeveon Clowney *

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

COLLEGE: South Carolina

AGE: 20

HT: 6-5

WT: 274

POS: DE

Analysis: There is no question that the Jags need a QB. It is questionable whether they will take one at this draft slot unless they believe that QB will make them better at that position in 2014. So consider this an early bet on a front office that will look to hit what is still a major need (the pass rush) by drafting the best available player in the draft. Clowney got questioned on his motor in his final college season, but that has more to do with stats than the tape. And any evaluator who saw a tentative player could also imagine what Clowney had on the line. Clowney is physically prepared to come in and make a major impact, and I think there's a good chance the Jags draft for upside and angle for a QB later. Don't forget: Free agency and trades can still shift the QB market in the draft. Think of Kansas City last year at this time.

As well, I recall when the Texans took Mario Williams at a time when QB was a question, and their GM told us it wasn't just about needing a QB, it was about the QBs they had to beat. Peyton Manning was in the division. Indy still has a good QB the Jags have to face.

PLAYER CARD

4

Blake Bortles *

Cleveland Browns (4-12)

COLLEGE: UCF

AGE: 21

HT: 6-4

WT: 230

POS: QB

Analysis: Suffice to say, no coach in Cleveland makes this a pretty difficult projection. While there's plenty of debate in NFL circles regarding which QB in this class has the most upside in terms of overall ability, from a physical standpoint Bortles is at the top of the list. At 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, with not elite but good arm strength, and the ability to move both in the pocket and to make plays down the field as a runner, he has a chance to add value and eliminate negative plays with his mobility as he develops as a passer. It goes without saying that Cleveland will look to address its QB situation through the draft or via a trade, and this is potentially a good fit for Bortles. He's still somewhat limited as a progression passer and struggles with ball placement, and can also be rigid with his mechanics, but the presence of Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron gives any new QB here matchup threats to exploit. Cleveland is, for the first time in a while, a really attractive environment for a young QB to grow and succeed.

PLAYER CARD

5

Sammy Watkins *

Oakland Raiders (4-12)

COLLEGE: Clemson

AGE: 20

HT: 6-1

WT: 205

POS: WR

Analysis: I count Oakland among the teams that could use a talent upgrade at QB, but the Raiders need to take really good football players who can help the team right away -- and I believe their front office knows it. Watkins qualifies as an experienced and explosive combination of a pass-catcher and dynamic runner after the catch. And while he lacks elite size for the position, Watkins brings an elite level of explosiveness before and after the catch and is a significant threat and can beat defenses over the top. Unless you count a healthy Darren McFadden (who is an unrestricted free agent this offseason), Oakland has lacked a player who is a constant threat to create big plays. Watkins can fill that void.

PLAYER CARD

6

Anthony Barr

Atlanta Falcons (4-12)

COLLEGE: UCLA

AGE: 21

HT: 6-4

WT: 248

POS: OLB/DE

Analysis: Three years ago the Broncos drafted Von Miller, a move that caused many to ask whether Miller would fit in John Fox's scheme. Fox was known as a 4-3 guy, and Miller seemed well-equipped physically to be a 3-4 outside linebacker. I could hear some saying the same about this pick, but (A) great players make great systems more often than the other way around, so don't get too caught up in the whole 3-4 vs. 4-3 thing, and (B) the Falcons really need a pass-rusher. Barr gives them that, as an explosive matchup problem on the edge who does more than disrupt the passing game. And he can certainly add weight.

PLAYER CARD

7

Khalil Mack

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)

COLLEGE: Buffalo

AGE: 22

HT: 6-3

WT: 245

POS: OLB

Analysis: The Bucs are another team that must create more pressure to take advantage of the fact that they have a good defensive core in place to stop the run and make plays in the secondary. Mack gives Tampa a three-down linebacker who can rush the quarterback and drop and make plays in space. He could be plugged in across the formation from Lavonte David and won't need to come off the field. This could be a really good defense in 2014 for Lovie Smith.

PLAYER CARD

8

Teddy Bridgewater *

Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1)

COLLEGE: Louisville

AGE: 22

HT: 6-2

WT: 220

POS: QB

Analysis: In terms of his ability as a passer, Bridgewater could go higher. But while I currently have him rated as the top QB on my Big Board, Bridgewater will need to prove to teams that he can command an NFL huddle and be the face of a franchise. I think he has the necessary physical tools to succeed, and shows an advanced approach with his footwork, anticipation, pre-snap command and ability to improvise. He's a very good value here for a team with a huge need at the position. Whether he can start right away is a question we'll need more time to answer.

PLAYER CARD

9

Greg Robinson *

Buffalo Bills (6-10)

COLLEGE: Auburn

AGE: 21

HT: 6-5

WT: 320

POS: OT

Analysis: Cordy Glenn has been an adequate and at times above-average NFL left tackle, but the Bills definitely need a right tackle. That could be Robinson as a rookie, or he could come in and Glenn could move to the right side. Robinson has the physical tools and proven level of performance against SEC competition of a potential star at the next level, and the Bills must protect the investment they have in EJ Manuel, who has had issues staying healthy.

PLAYER CARD

10

Justin Gilbert

Detroit Lions (7-9)

COLLEGE: Oklahoma St.

AGE: 22

HT: 6-0

WT: 200

POS: CB

Analysis: With continued improvement from Ezekiel Ansah to go with the dominance of the interior of that defensive line, the Lions could create a ton of pressure on opposing QBs next season. The problem is if they can't do a better job of covering, it might not make a difference. Gilbert would help the cause coming off a season where you could argue that no cornerback in college football performed better. He has the size to compete with bigger wide receivers and the agility and speed to run with anybody. He also brings strong return skills.

PLAYER CARD

11

Taylor Lewan

Tennessee Titans (7-9)

COLLEGE: Michigan

AGE: 22

HT: 6-7

WT: 315

POS: OT

Analysis: The Titans have some decisions to make at tackle in the short term, with David Stewart likely not to return at right tackle and Michael Roos a free agent after the 2014 season. If they want this offense to take another step forward, adding talent and continuity on the offensive line will be pivotal. Lewan comes off a fine career at Michigan where he started since his freshman season, and added power as a run-blocker to his already ideal frame for a tackle. He could start at right tackle as a rookie and transition to the left side.

PLAYER CARD

12

C.J. Mosley

New York Giants (7-9)

COLLEGE: Alabama

AGE: 21

HT: 6-2

WT: 232

POS: LB

Analysis: The Giants never draft linebackers in the first round, but if a player of Mosley's caliber is on the board, I think that streak could end. If not for the signing of Jon Beason, this linebacking corps would have been even more of a mess in 2013, and Beason isn't yet a lock for 2014. I'm not sure any team in the NFL has a greater need at the position. Mosley is instinctive and fast, deft in coverage and a physical tackler even if he's not big for the position. He offers immediate help.

PLAYER CARD

13

Mike Evans *

St. Louis Rams (7-9)

COLLEGE: Texas A&M

AGE: 21

HT: 6-5

WT: 225

POS: WR

Analysis: Last year the Rams added Tavon Austin, a player who is explosive in space and hard to cover due to his quickness and straight-line speed. In Evans, they get a mammoth wide receiver who can't be covered capably because he can simply box out defenders for passes and get to the ball at a point higher than anybody around him. Johnny Manzielbenefited greatly from his presence; so can Sam Bradford. We've seen basketball players like Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham transition well to the NFL after doing very little in college football. Well, Evans was a basketball player and was dominant in college football. Speed is a concern, but it can't ruin the value of his size advantage.

PLAYER CARD

14

Timmy Jernigan *

Chicago Bears (8-8)

COLLEGE: Florida St.

AGE: 21

HT: 6-2

WT: 298

POS: DT

Analysis: This would be a dream scenario for the Bears, who were repeatedly gashed by the run down the stretch in 2013 due to a lack of interior defenders. They even had to move undersized 4-3 defensive ends inside. Jernigan is an active run-stuffer, a player who disrupts the run game with penetration due to unusual quickness for his size, and with leverage and violent hands that make him hard to move. He'd come in and help Chicago rebuild that interior rotation.

PLAYER CARD

15

Louis Nix III *

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)

COLLEGE: Notre Dame

AGE: 22

HT: 6-3

WT: 345

POS: DT

Analysis: Nix is one of those rare players, a two-gap nose tackle with the feet and quickness to be useful within any scheme. He can hold up at the point of attack and handle double-teams, but also will occasionally use his hands and ability to get off blocks, find a gap and make a play in the backfield. A versatile but huge defender like this will pay dividends in any system, but certainly the Steelers need a player like him, without a true nose tackle on the roster and with Brett Keisel now 35.

PLAYER CARD

16

Eric Ebron *

Baltimore Ravens (8-8)^

COLLEGE: North Carolina

AGE: 20

HT: 6-4

WT: 231

POS: TE

Analysis: The Ravens desperately need a matchup problem for Joe Flacco, and tight end is a position of uncertainty headed into 2014 as both Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta are at the end of their contracts. Ebron has the size, speed, hands and catch radius you want out of a new-breed tight end who can be split out, but he also has the frame to add some size and not get totally pushed around as an inline blocker. I have him rated higher than this slot on my Big Board.

PLAYER CARD

17

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix *

Dallas Cowboys (8-8)^

COLLEGE: Alabama

AGE: 21

HT: 6-1

WT: 208

POS: S

Analysis: I don't see a decent free safety solution on the Cowboys' roster, and good ones typically don't make it to free agency, so this pick lines up need and board value pretty effectively. Clinton-Dix has the range to handle the deep role in man-free coverage as he did for Nick Saban. He has good instincts, is generally strong with his routes and angles to the ball, and does a good job of not letting quarterbacks get him going in the wrong direction with their eyes.

PLAYER CARD

18

Marqise Lee *

New York Jets (8-8)

COLLEGE: USC

AGE: 22

HT: 6-1

WT: 198

POS: WR

Analysis: It almost goes without saying that New York lacks anything resembling a No. 1 receiver, and a healthy Lee certainly resembles that as a prospect, making him a great fit here. Lee had a balky knee for a portion of 2013, but he looked close to 100 percent toward the end of the season, and we again saw that trademark explosiveness. Lee is a receiver who competes for the ball, runs good routes and can beat corners and safeties deep, but also has exceptional quickness and fluidity as a runner with the ball. He can change direction with so little noticeable loss of speed, it's a treat to watch.

PLAYER CARD

19

Cyrus Kouandjio *

Miami Dolphins (8-8)

COLLEGE: Alabama

AGE: 20

HT: 6-6

WT: 315

POS: OT

Analysis: The offensive line was a source of chaos for Miami in 2013, for all kinds of reasons. Bryant McKinnie, whom the Dolphins acquired from Baltimore midseason and isn't signed into 2014, won't be the answer at left tackle. While Kouandjio had his inconsistencies at the position for Alabama in 2013, he also has the physical tools of a potentially dominant NFL starter at left tackle, which says plenty. He has length, a wide base, long arms and easy feet to absorb power and mirror quickness. Miami should come away from the draft with a potential starter and some depth on the O-line.

PLAYER CARD

20

Zack Martin

Arizona Cardinals (10-6)

COLLEGE: Notre Dame

AGE: 23

HT: 6-4

WT: 308

POS: OT

Analysis: The Cardinals will get a boost from the addition of a healthy Jonathan Cooper at guard next season after he lost his rookie year to injury. But the situation at both tackle positions is pretty unsettled in terms of both contracts and performance going forward, and a versatile offensive lineman with a lot of experience at left tackle and the ability to move elsewhere makes a lot of sense. If you can't block in the NFC West, you're going to be in a lot of trouble.

PLAYER CARD

21

Calvin Pryor *

Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

COLLEGE: Louisville

AGE: 21

HT: 6-2

WT: 208

POS: S

Analysis: The Packers have a good strong safety in Morgan Burnett, but they need more reliability and versatility at the free safety position. Pryor is a rising talent with the speed and instincts to cover a ton of ground in coverage, but also the willingness to fly downhill and make tackles at the line of scrimmage. The onetime high school running back (and safety) was pretty dominant as a junior and enters the draft with a lot of momentum in terms of his tape. Charlie Strong told me this is one of the best players he's ever coached.

PLAYER CARD

22

Kelvin Benjamin *

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

COLLEGE: Florida St.

AGE: 22

HT: 6-4

WT: 232

POS: WR

Analysis: I'd consider this more of a "best player available" pick than an outright need, but Benjamin would fill a distinctive role for the Eagles. Riley Cooper has decent size, but doesn't create separation with speed (and is a free agent), and DeSean Jackson is exceptionally quick still, but lacks a physical presence. Benjamin combines some of both, with a huge frame for a wide receiver at near 6-5 and a lean 230-plus pounds. He possesses not just speed, but a lot of change-of-direction burst. He can simply overwhelm defenders and make plays, and would be a nice weapon for Chip Kelly.

PLAYER CARD

23

Stephon Tuitt *

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)

COLLEGE: Notre Dame

AGE: 21

HT: 6-6

WT: 310

POS: DE

Analysis: The Chiefs got exposed some along the defensive line as the season progressed. A 9-0 start for the Chiefs masked the fact that Dontari Poe's play tailed off considerably, and there really isn't an above-average 3-4 DE on the roster. Tuitt has a rare combination of size and quickness, a player who will play at 300-plus pounds and drive blockers with power but can also turn, rip, bend and get around defenders with agility. He's not a "perfect fit for this scheme" as much as he's a great fit in any scheme. He sometimes reminds me a young Richard Seymour.

PLAYER CARD

24

Darqueze Dennard

Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)

COLLEGE: Michigan St.

AGE: 22

HT: 5-11

WT: 197

POS: CB

Analysis: The Cincinnati secondary was better in performance than I thought it'd be on paper this season, but there are some concerns going forward at a couple of spots, with both age (Adam Jones and Terence Newman are north of 30) and health (Leon Hall ended the season on injured reserve), so the Bengals don't just need depth, they could use a player capable of starting. Dennard is the most complete corner in the draft in terms of the overall skill profile to work in any kind of coverage, and he brings a great work ethic and competitive temperament to the field. Three words: Ready to play.

PLAYER CARD

25

Bradley Roby *

San Diego Chargers (9-7)

COLLEGE: Ohio St.

AGE: 21

HT: 5-11

WT: 192

POS: CB

Analysis: Roby isn't yet a complete package at cornerback, but he has top-end speed and quickness, with fluid hips that allow him to turn and run with any kind of receiver. Where he needs to improve is in his ball skills and in not grabbing too much, which will cause him to draw too many flags at the NFL level. But with refinement he can be really good. San Diego was leaky in the secondary all season and could use a talent upgrade.

PLAYER CARD

26

Carlos Hyde *

Cleveland Browns (4-12) (From IND)

[Nas]

LBs are like RBs, no need to spend a 1st rounder on with very very few exceptions.

[Herc]

i agree though i admittedly have no idea how good mosley is

[Dragon]

My God... if the Eagles draft Kelvin Benjamin...

[Mr. P]

Kipers mock draft from this time last year had Damontre Moore going 2nd overall.

[Herc]

Kipers mock draft from this time last year had Damontre Moore going 2nd overall.

 

after seeing his mock this year i can believe it

[NeMesiS]

Boy we need to Upgrade the OlIne...

[Pizan]

Its early yet but right now the only LB at 12 I like is Khalil Mack. Mosley seems like a fine prospect but is he top 15 pick worthy? I'm not so sure he is.

 

As it stands now, I want to trade back and acquire more picks.

[Bigblue25]

Mosley would be WLB In a 4-3 and Paysinger has been fine there

[Herc]

yeah i really think we should tender paysinger

[Pizan]

Mosley would be WLB In a 4-3 and Paysinger has been fine there

 

 

Maybe we're watching different Paysingers then. He's fine as a back up but not a starter.

[gmenroc]

If those 3 OTs all go before we pick, I guess I'm fine taking Mosely. A guy in the middle of one of college football's best defenses...could be a leader of ours. I think though, if Beason comes back, it may change this pick.

 

If Beason is back and the 3 OTs are gone, I think a WR (because I've already accepted that Nicks walks) or CB would be good moves. If Linval Joseph walks, then Jernigan sounds like an intriguing pick.

 

We're still months away. It'll be interesting to see how many of these guys are even first round picks by the time it's all said and done.

[Sephiroth]

 

 

Maybe we're watching different Paysingers then. He's fine as a back up but not a starter.

 

That's what I've been saying too.

 

The guy will be out of position 4 of 5 plays but then make a tackle after a five-yard gain and everyone will be crowing about how well he's coming along.

[CrazedDogs]

 

That's what I've been saying too.

 

The guy will be out of position 4 of 5 plays but then make a tackle after a five-yard gain and everyone will be crowing about how well he's coming along.

 

Our love of Paysinger is sort of like celebrating a solid turd after experiencing explosive water shits.

[Nas]

Its early yet but right now the only LB at 12 I like is Khalil Mack. Mosley seems like a fine prospect but is he top 15 pick worthy? I'm not so sure he is.

 

As it stands now, I want to trade back and acquire more picks.

 

Given how the Giants take 3 years before their rookies see the field I don't see the point.

[Nas]

 

Our love of Paysinger is sort of like celebrating a solid turd after experiencing explosive water shits.

 

That's mean and hurtful

[Herc]

nobody is calling paysinger a star. he's a decent player at a position where we currently have no others signed

[CrazedDogs]

nobody is calling paysinger a star. he's a decent player at a position where we currently have no others signed

 

true. But I'd feel a lot better if he were a backup.

[BleedinBlue]

Kiper is the ultimate "knows everything, always wrong" type of guy. He laughed when we took Pugh and said he could've been gotten in the next round. And Pugh turns out to be the best lineman (OT) taken in the draft. Suck on that Kiper!!!

 

This upcoming draft should be very interesting. Several blue chip players have shocked their teams by announcing they are entering the draft instead of playing out their years.

 

This changes everything because when unexpected players that would have gone in the top 10 next year enter the draft, it pushes more talent down the line for us. Someone like Jake Mathews might actually fall to us at 11 - and that would excite me to no end.

 

However, I certainly wouldn't be unhappy if CJ Mosely or Mike Evans fell in our lap either.

[Pizan]

 

Given how the Giants take 3 years before their rookies see the field I don't see the point.

 

 

I see what you're saying but with Mara's recent comments I think that changes this year. Also, we have a list of needs and we need to get the most out of that 12 pick. Unless a player like Mack falls to us I think trading back is in our best interest.

[Pizan]

nobody is calling paysinger a star. he's a decent player at a position where we currently have no others signed

 

 

Nobody is saying you are. We are just saying he isn't a starter. Fine on specials and as a back up but thats it. He and Herz are restricted FAs. We'll give them the lowest tender and they'll be back next season. Hopefully as back ups. Although Herz doesn't fit our defense well he is our best STs player.

[BleedinBlue]

I see what you're saying but with Mara's recent comments I think that changes this year. Also, we have a list of needs and we need to get the most out of that 12 pick. Unless a player like Mack falls to us I think trading back is in our best interest.

I've been looking at a whole lot of mocks and with some of these star junior players suddenly opting to partake in the draft, Mathews has been listed anywhere from 5th to 9th. A month ago, he was listed in the top 3 on every mock board.

 

Mocks don't mean shit (as the ole vernacular goes), but man....if Mathews fell to us, it would be a dream pick. Beatty could get fully healed and then come off the bench to spell either tackle to keep the two starters fresh.

 

Just dreamin. I'm sure he'll be gone....but anything can happen on draft day.

[Tempest]

JoeMorris4prez will be happy

[Mr. P]

 

Given how the Giants take 3 years before their rookies see the field I don't see the point.

 

 

Does anyone have any actual stats or proof to show that other teams play their rookies sooner and more often than the giants?

 

I believe it's a myth.

[Nas]

 

 

Does anyone have any actual stats or proof to show that other teams play their rookies sooner and more often than the giants?

 

I believe it's a myth.

 

I don't think they keep those stats, Pdub... but we've seen Coughlin go with a gimpy washed up veteran over a young energetic rookie or 2nd year man... Hankin was wreaking havoc in the very limited time he got... Moore didn't play much though JPP was invisible out there... Nassib.. even in a game that didn't matter.. they risked an injury to Eli instead of getting this guy on the field even for the 2nd half of a meaningless game... I've seen other teams play their rookies.. if I recall correctly the catch that broke our season was made by a Dallas rookie.... and Rolle was running in circles for some reason.