Seph Fixes the Giants

[Sephiroth]

So I’m pretty sure at this point I should be the GM of the Giants.  I’m not saying that I’d be great at it… I’m just saying that if the Giants had listened to me instead of Jerry Reese and Dave Gettleman, we’d be in a lot better shape than we’re actually in right now.  

With this in mind, I’ve set out to fixing the Giants.  *Disclaimer - the roster is still a total clusterfuck, and there’s no way any human being could address EVERYTHING the Giants need right now.  There will be holes in the roster, even with my genius handiwork. 

First things first… the dead weight. 

Golden Tate - 6 Million -  too old, didn’t do enough this season, and we have guys that are already better slot players. 

Evan Engram - 6 Million - fuck this guy.  I do not let my Soul Glow. 

Levine Toilolo - 3 million  - Bizarro Evan Engram.  The blocking TE that can’t block. 

Kevin Zeitler - 12 Million - this is a really hard one.  I think Zeitler is the best O-linemen we have, but he’s not a 12 million player anymore.  If he doesn’t take a pay cut to something more reasonable, that 12 million dollars can fix some problems in other spots.  Again, I’m iffy on this, but ultimately I think he’s gotta walk at that price. 

Nate Solder - in this scenario, he won’t take a pay cut, so we’re stuck with him for another year.  

So in total, we’ve freed up 27 million in cap space.  Who should we spend this on in free agency? The salary cap going down is throwing a real wrench into the gears right now, and I’d suspect there will be a LOT of veterans available on cheapy, 1-year contracts this year as expensive guys get cut, but for the sake of argument I’m going to give everyone what I think would be a fair market value for their services. 

Guys who walk - Leonard Williams, Wayne Gallman, Davonte Freeman, Probably Other Guys I forgot - We just can’t afford Williams this year.  The good news is we should get a 3rd round compensatory pick for him in 2022.  Gallman deserves out of here;  he’s been a #2 back talent-wise but nobody ever gives him a legitimate shot.  Freeman was too injured. 

Now on to the keepers and new guys: 

Dalvin Tomlinson -  4 years, 40 million, 10 million this season (spotrac estimates as 9 mil) - give him a little extra, but he’s done everything you’ve ever wanted him to.  Good locker room guy, home grown talent.  Dude deserves it. 

Austin Johnson - 1 year, 2 million - we re-sign him to another one-year deal in the same way we did for Fackrell, and for the same reasons. I'm ok with Tomlinson, Johnson, and Bj Hill with Dex Lawrence sometimes playing nose tackle.  Honestly that’s a pretty nice group. 

Hassan Reddick - 4 years, 50 million, 9.5 million this season.  I know he kind of looks like a bust by the numbers but Arizona just started to have him play the edge this year, and he had 12.5 sacks.  Even if you take out the Giants game that’s still 7.5, which is pretty decent (for this team). I’d cheap him out this year, give him a ton of guaranteed money next season, and incentivize the fuck outta this contract. He graded out very well via PFF this year for what stock you put into that.  

Kyle Rudolph or Zach Ertz - 1 year, 5 million.   One of these two guys is going to shake free because the cap is so low, and while both are past their primes they can still produce.  I’d take either one in their “underproducing seasons” over Stone Hands Engram. 

 

So to this point, we’ve covered the DT problem and gotten a pass rusher that between him and Carter/Ximines, you’d think one would get you at least 8 sacks.  There’s still the issue of making up for the loss of Zeitler, and TE/WR is still looking pretty weak.  These holes we’re going to have to fill in the draft.  

 

For the draft, I did a PFF Mock with trades available.  I’ve assumed that big-time guys are gone (no Ja’Marr Chase, Penei Sewell, Davonte Smith, Jaylen Waddle, or Kyle Pitts… basically the worst-case Giants scenario, like that year we drafted Ereck Flowers or that other year we ended up with Eli Apple).  Still, I think we ended up OK.  Here’s how it went: 

11 - Rashawn Slater - honestly I worry about him a little bit because of the short arms and looks a little undersized, but his feet are amazing.  Not going to wow anyone with his power but beats defenders with technique, finesse, and tenacity.  You can plug and play him anywhere on the line and get adequate (tackle) to great (center) play out of him.  Pick your worst O-lineman next year;  that’s where Slater fits in. 

42 - WR Terrace Marshall - I know the drops are troubling (I fucking hate Evan Engram… did I mention that?)  but the skills are too much to ignore in this spot.  He’s big, fast, has great body control, and wins the jump ball.  He’d be a nasty red-zone target and I think would give you Plax Burress-like production the year after this one, but he’s going to need a little bit of work. 

TRADE with Pittsburgh - we swap picks in the 3rd, but also pick up an extra 5th. 

76 > 87 (From Pittsburgh) G Ben Cleveland - Big, strong, nasty, and gives zero shits.  Once again, should be able to open holes for our RBs.  Between Cleveland, Slater, and the rest of the O-linemen, we should be able to field a decent unit. 

116 - DT Jay Tufele - he’s a fucking Samoan, and we need to replace Williams.  Just watch his game tape.  The Giants need more Samoans.  Not the Girl Scout cookies, either. 

141  - (From Pittsburgh) TE Hunter Long - I was really hoping that Tommy Tremble (this year’s George Kittle IMO) would have been around the last few picks, but Hunter Long isn’t a bad consolation prize.  He’s got incredible size and runs pretty well. Is just on OK blocker but he’s got the frame to eventually do well with it.  Hard to imagine someone who’s 6’5” 254 lbs could be a bad blocker, but then I remember Larry Donnell.  Hunter Long can probably learn the somersault butt block, which will make him at least as good as Donnell. 

198 -  WR Marquez Stevenson - I get that he’s had injuries, but I watch this guy’s game tape and have no idea why he keeps falling to the later rounds. He’s got a good release off the line and game-breaking speed… looks like a poor man’s Odell.  If he finds a way to stay healthy I think he could be a top-end #2 WR, and offers value as a kick returner too.  In the sixth round he’s a fucking steal… one of my top sleepers of the entire draft. 

204-  RB Pooka Williams, Jr - he’s a young Dion Lewis. Undersized, but great acceleration, good quicks, and top-end vision.  Vision is one of those things that’s really underrated coming out of college;  it’s easy to rack up yards when your OL is opening up holes that you could drive a truck through, but it’s another thing to understand blocking concepts, be patient, and see the hole once it’s there; Pooka has that. He’s extremely feisty and tough, and would immediately contribute since we have no other running backs. 

 

That’s it.  There’s till tons of holes… RB is very weak, we have one maybe-decent pass rusher… but I think this would put the team on the right path to success.  Also, if Dave Gettleman wants any more advice (I know he's reading this) I'm available for consultative work. 

What about you guys?  How do you fix the team this offseason? 

[BlueInCanada]

Been discussed in other threads so far but to summarize;

Cut; Zeitler, Solder (if he doesn't restructure), Tate, Engram, Hernandez, BJ Hill, Mayo, Pettis.

Savings - 12 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 3 + 2 +2 + 2 = roughly 41 million after change.

Sign;

C/G Linsey 2 year, 20 million.

G Oday Aboushi 2 year, 6 million.

ILB Perryman 3 year, 16 million.

Giants address the lack of depth/talent at guard and get a starter in Linsey, Oday was a surprise last year with the Lions, could start over Lemieux if he doesnt get better in pass pro.

Perryman is a day one stater beside Martinez since we've ignored the position the last 10 years lol.

Resign;

DT Tomlinson 4 year, 46 million.

DT Austin Johnson 1 year 1.5 million.

Only guys really worth resigning who wont break the bank, maybe try to keep Fackrell but Coughlin filled into his role.

Draft;

1) Jaylen Waddle WR

Best play maker available, Smith might also be here.

2) Samuel Cosmi RT

Value in the second round as Cosmi falls out of the first, would be a starter is the Giants dont feel Peart is ready for full time duties.

3) Joesph Ossai Edge

4) Quincey Roche Edge/OLB

Two of the best edge rushers available in the third and fourth, Ossai is a typically DE, Roche is a guy Graham will love due to his versatility.

No 5th

6) Jaret Patterson RB

Shifty workhorse back in college, had some ridiculous games in college (8TDs 400 yards).

6) Kylen Granson TE

Almost what Engram was suppose to be, a big WR type of TE, but he's strong and is a committed blocker, but can catch the ball as well. 

No 7th

Giants Oline and Dline are once again added too and young talent brought in.

Offense is still lacking weapons (#3 WR, TE, etc) but with the addition of Waddle and the improved Oline/healthy Barkley hopefully Jones doesn't look like a scared deer every play.

Defense has to rely on the rookie edge rushers to play well from day one, and CB#2 is still a major concern, which hopefully wont be a problem with the young edge guys can go out there and make some plays.

Do I expect any single thing like this to happen?

Fuck no.

 

 

 

[mastershake]

Ehh...Reddick to me seems like a guy who feasts on weak OLs (e.g. the Giants), but when tasked with average or decent OLs, he disappears.

[mastershake]

Here's some stats for you:

Hassan Reddick 16 games this year:

3 games vs NFC East teams: 8.0 sacks (including 5 vs the giants).

13 games vs everyone else: 4.5 sacks.

 

Additionally, Hassan Reddick is the only defender with 10 or more total sacks to go 5 straight games with zero sacks.

 

 

[CrazedDogs]

13 hours ago, mastershake said:

Here's some stats for you:

Hassan Reddick 16 games this year:

3 games vs NFC East teams: 8.0 sacks (including 5 vs the giants).

13 games vs everyone else: 4.5 sacks.

 

Additionally, Hassan Reddick is the only defender with 10 or more total sacks to go 5 straight games with zero sacks.

 

 

that's a concern that should be priced into his contract.

Wouldn't want to pay him anything close to Leonard Williams money.... but for contact a little south of what Tomlinson will get, he might be a decent enough value. 

[Herc]

We can always pay Romeo Okwara now that he’s apparently awesome 🤬

[mastershake]

 I just would not retain Solder and I would not re-sign Tomlinson (I think his contract looks more like 4 years $50mm).

I'd revise this with the following:

- OT Kevin Beachum 2 years $7mm. Backup plan at RT, and an improvement over Fleming and Solder.

- OL Corey Linsley 3 years $33mm.

Change the 3rd round pick to DE/EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh.

I'd feel much better about this OL.

LT Thomas

LG Slater

C Linsley

RG Gates

RT Beachum or Peart

 

I wouldn't feel great about the pass rush on this team but I'd feel comfortable with everything else.

[Virginia Giant]

I'm good with letting Williams walk.  System and coaching aside, I'm skeptical of a player who suddenly turns it on in a contract year. 

[mastershake]

12 hours ago, Virginia Giant said:

I'm good with letting Williams walk.  System and coaching aside, I'm skeptical of a player who suddenly turns it on in a contract year. 

Good point.  Not only can't we afford the contract he wants and will likely get elsewhere, I'm also weary about re-signing a guy who suddenly "figures it out" in his contract year. Let him walk.

[CrazedDogs]

in fairness to Williams - and I say this with the same skepticism about whether or not he can maintain his 2020 level of play - he's had two contract years in a row.

[UK-Giantsfan]

tag Williams , sign Tomlinson

( i agree to cutting Tate and Zeitler ) 

restructure Solder or show him the door

trade Engram ( some idiot GM will go for it ....after all he is a "Pro Bowler"  ) 

[mastershake]

Another thing to keep in mind on cap space. Before cuts and before factoring in draft pick contracts against the cap, we only have ~$5mm under the cap. 

Draft picks alone are going to cost somewhere between ~$9-10mm most likely. The #11 pick last year for instance drew a year 1 cap hit of ~$3.3mm, and the 2nd rounder was ~$1.2mm. Add up the other 5 picks, and you can quickly approach a $9-10mm on draft picks alone. So realistically, we're really currently at like -$5mm.

Depending on the mix of players we potentially cut, we free up $27-$38mm. The net result of that with the draft picks above is $22-$33mm in free cap space.

Then, DG seems to like to keep some cap available going into the season, and we're really only looking at maybe $15mm - $25mm in spending this offseason, which really limits our options.

That's probably one fairly big contract in the range of a $8mm-$10mm cap hit (e.g. Dalvin Tomlinson, Corey Linsley, Matt Judon, Hassan Reddick), and then maybe one mid tier contract with a $5mm-8mm cap hit (e.g. Curtis Samuel, Rudolph, Ertz)....then you're down to signing several backups for depth (e.g. Austin Johnson).

In other words, I think we need to revise our expectations on DG in free agency. I expect one fairly big signing, one mid tier contract, and several additional depth signings....and that's about it.

[BlueInCanada]

Keep in mind as well the entire league is going through this.

Multiple teams are expressing frustration over the fact that the cap isn't set yet. 

The Dolphins released Van Noy,a leader and play maker on that team after one year. 

Lots of big name players are going to be cap casualties and it's going to be wild.

 

[mastershake]

1 hour ago, BlueInCanada said:

Keep in mind as well the entire league is going through this.

Multiple teams are expressing frustration over the fact that the cap isn't set yet. 

The Dolphins released Van Noy,a leader and play maker on that team after one year. 

Lots of big name players are going to be cap casualties and it's going to be wild.

 

Even so, most teams in the league are in a better position than we are...but regardless of their position. The giants just don't have the $$$ cap space to make big moves in free agency. I'm not expecting much in free agency from DG. DG needs to hit a home run in the draft.

[BlueInCanada]

1 hour ago, mastershake said:

Even so, most teams in the league are in a better position than we are...but regardless of their position. The giants just don't have the $$$ cap space to make big moves in free agency. I'm not expecting much in free agency from DG. DG needs to hit a home run in the draft.

Oh I didn't mean that the Giants are relatively better, we were screwed by the cap going down and guys like Solder sitting out last year but as we've said DG didn't do us any favors. 

Like I said I think Linsey and Tomlinson are the "big" signings this offseason hopefully.

They won't break the bank and they both fill needs.

We can forget about the Giants getting one of these big name WRs or DEs in FA. 

But watch DG will go throw 19 million at Robinson and a bunch of one year contract vets or worse yet pay Williams 22+ million.

While Tomlinson leaves and the Oline withers away.

[CrazedDogs]

May as well prepare yourselves that the starting OL is already on the roster. Seems like Gettlemen likes that group a lot more than the rest of us.

[BlueInCanada]

51 minutes ago, CrazedDogs said:

May as well prepare yourselves that the starting OL is already on the roster. Seems like Gettlemen likes that group a lot more than the rest of us.

Thomas, Gates, Peart(@RT) I'm fine with.

But the Guard position needs help.

If he's banking on Hernandez turning it around and Lemioux taking a massive leap forward then I fear for Jones and Barkley's lives. 

 

[BlueInCanada]

Also imagine being the Saints right now.

They cut multiple players saving 11 million, restructured Brees contract to free up 25 milion. 

Letting guys walk in FA.

And they are still 61 million OVER the cap lol

 

 

 

[Dragon]

This guy is shooting up my draft board. 6'2" 210lbs and just ran a 4.39 40 at his pro day.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/rashod-bateman-1.html

 

When looking at his stats keep in mind the Big 10 only played 5-6 games this year due to Covid. 

[mastershake]

We have at best a 6-10 team if our OL starters are Thomas, Lemuiex, Gates, Hernandez, Peart.

 

Lemuiex, Hernandez, Peart have flashed but they're highly inconsistent at this point. Lemuiex and Peart are developmental works in progress... Hernandez is simply mediocre and I have no hope for him. You can get away with one of those types of guys on starting on your line if the others on your OL are sound, but not three. And let's be honest, Gates is only okay, and Thomas is decent but not spectacular at this point.

Collectively, that group of 5 is a D to C minus grade offensive line. Now imagine Andrew Thomas or Gates gets injured...it goes to being an F real quick.

Problem is we are so desperate for a decent OL, that when we see a couple good plays from these guys (Peart, Lemuiex), we cream ourselves, completely ignoring the other half dozen botched plays. Remember a couple years ago when Jamon Brown had a coupon good games and we were gushing? Where is he now? 

Also, Gates was much better at RT than he is at C so I have no ideas why the fuck they moved him.

[Herc]

Looks like norwell is getting cut if the jags can’t trade him.  I was pissed when we didn’t go after him 3 years ago.  Still a pretty good pass protector 

[Sephiroth]

10 minutes ago, Herc said:

Looks like norwell is getting cut if the jags can’t trade him.  I was pissed when we didn’t go after him 3 years ago.  Still a pretty good pass protector 

Zeitler on the trading block too.  Nobody is going to take on these kinds of contracts in a cap-reduced year though; they'll both end up getting released. 

[BlueInCanada]

57 minutes ago, Sephiroth said:

Zeitler on the trading block too.  Nobody is going to take on these kinds of contracts in a cap-reduced year though; they'll both end up getting released. 

Theres been multiple reports that coaches, GMs, etc have all said this offseason is going to be a "massacre" 

A lot of teams way over the cap, teams with barely any cap, and some teams with 60+ million in cap.

It's going to be wild and I can't wait too see what happens. 

Looking at a pretty historic offseason with all things considered.

A lot of one year contacts and ring chasers going to competing teams for less pay.

[Herc]

2 hours ago, Sephiroth said:

Zeitler on the trading block too.  Nobody is going to take on these kinds of contracts in a cap-reduced year though; they'll both end up getting released. 

Trai Turner now too.  Gonna be a lot of guards available 

[CrazedDogs]

2 hours ago, Herc said:

Trai Turner now too.  Gonna be a lot of guards available 

Music to my ears.