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Interesting playoff scenarios


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http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2011/12/ny_giants_scenarios_to_win_nfc.html

 

So after Sunday night’s victory, what do the Giants need the rest of the way to win the NFC East? Here’s the breakdown:

 

-- A better record than the Dallas Cowboys over the final three weeks. Obviously.

 

-- The same record as Dallas the rest of the way AND a victory over the Cowboys on Jan. 1. That would give the Giants the head-to-head tiebreaker.

 

-- Wins over the Washington Redskins and Jets AND, should the Cowboys beat Tampa Bay and the Giants, a loss by Dallas to the Philadelphia Eagles on Christmas Eve. The Giants would win the tiebreaker because of a better record in common games.

 

-- Any other scenario except the ones listed above would mean the Cowboys win the NFC East. Tiebreakers in division record and conference record would favor Dallas in a few scenarios.

 

-- Now, the one caveat to all of this is if the Eagles tie the Giants, Cowboys or both at 8-8. Philly would win the division because of a better divisional record than the Giants and the head-to-head tiebreaker over Dallas.

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-- Now, the one caveat to all of this is if the Eagles tie the Giants, Cowboys or both at 8-8. Philly would win the division because of a better divisional record than the Giants and the head-to-head tiebreaker over Dallas.

 

That happens, I become a hard-core atheist. The thought of a sentient deity hating me that much would be too great to handle. I would be left with no other choice.

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earlier I had played out various win/loss scenarios and concluded that if we don't win the division, we aint going because Atlanta and Detroit will almost assuredly be the wildcards due to better records if we end up 9-7. And chicago would beat us in a tiebreaker with equal records, most likely.

 

I also saw that if Philly beats Dallas and we lose to Dallas, with equal records, we still win the division. So if Dallas beats Philly, we must beat Dallas.

 

Dallas will likely not lose to TB or Philly, though, and we do play the Jets. If we lose that game, we must beat Dallas again for sure.

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Tell me about it.....every year, the Giants have at least one of those.

Was this as bad as the 2008 lost to the freaking browns?? Sunday night was it? Or Monday night. Ummmmm.

 

Let's not cheer for help from other teams to help us. We need to take this by the horn and bitch slap it like we own it!!!! Now is the time and the O-Line looked good from last game. Hopefully we get some of those injured guys back during these hectic times and give out some ass whooping!!!!!

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I was actually just going through all of this. The following chart details the chances the Giants have given the outcome of their games. First column is the outcome of the Giants games. Second column is the number of combinations with the Cowboys games' outcomes. The third column is the number of those outcomes the Giants win the division. The last column is simply the percentage of outcomes the Giants win the division given the first column.

 

In the first line, the Giants win their final 3 games. Coupled with the potential outcomes of the Cowboys games, there are 4 scenarios. While the Giants go WWW, the Cowboys could go WWL, WLL, LWL, or LLL - hence the 4 outcomes. In all 4 of those outcomes, the Giants win the division.

 

The asterisk is a wild card. In the third line below, if the Giants win in weeks 15 and 16 - there are 8 combinations of wins and losses with the Cowboys in which the Giants win the division 6 times. So, if the Giants win in weeks 15 and 16 - there is still a possibility they can lose the division and miss the playoffs.

 

At the end of the day - we need to beat the Cowboys. If we lose to the Cowboys, there are only 2 of 19 scenarios where we win the division.

 

WWW 4 4 100.00

WWL 4 2 50.00

WW* 8 6 75.00

WLW 4 4 100.00

WL* 9 4 44.44

WLL 5 0 0.00

W*W 8 8 100.00

W*L 9 2 22.22

W** 17 10 58.82

 

LWW 4 4 100.00

LWL 5 0 0.00

LW* 9 4 44.44

LLW 6 3 50.00

LLL 5 0 0.00

LL* 11 3 27.27

L*W 10 7 70.00

L*L 10 0 0.00

L** 20 7 35.00

 

*WW 8 8 100.00

*WL 9 2 22.22

*W* 17 10 58.82

*LW 10 7 70.00

*LL 10 0 0.00

*L* 20 7 35.00

**W 18 15 83.33

**L 19 2 10.53

*** 37 17 45.95

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WWW 4 4 100.00

WWL 4 2 50.00

WW* 8 6 75.00

WLW 4 4 100.00

WL* 9 4 44.44

WLL 5 0 0.00

W*W 8 8 100.00

W*L 9 2 22.22

W** 17 10 58.82

 

LWW 4 4 100.00

LWL 5 0 0.00

LW* 9 4 44.44

LLW 6 3 50.00

LLL 5 0 0.00

LL* 11 3 27.27

L*W 10 7 70.00

L*L 10 0 0.00

L** 20 7 35.00

 

*WW 8 8 100.00

*WL 9 2 22.22

*W* 17 10 58.82

*LW 10 7 70.00

*LL 10 0 0.00

*L* 20 7 35.00

**W 18 15 83.33

**L 19 2 10.53

*** 37 17 45.95

 

:wacko:

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For the Eagles to win the division (and for me to swear off football until the offseason), there are only 5 ways:

 

Eagles have to go 3-0, while the Giants go LLW and Cowboys go WLL

 

Eagles have to go 3-0, while the Giants go WLL and Cowboys go LLW

 

Eagles have to go 3-0, while the Giants go LWL and Cowboys go LLW

 

Eagles have to go 3-0, while the Giants go LLL and Cowboys go LLW

 

Eagles have to go 3-0, while the Giants go LLW and Cowboys go LLL

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This makes me wanna cry over that stupid Seahawks lost!!!!!

Or the Eagles.. or the Redskins... or the Packers... yea we fucking won that game...

 

 

...however conversely ..you could argue that we were fortunate to win against Arizona , Miami , Dallas and NE

 

This team is 7-6 and that is just about what they deserve ..........do you really think we are an 11-2 calibre team right now ...i dont

 

As Tree says ...if we end up 8-8 we dont deserve to go to the playoffs ....

 

9-7 with 2 wins over Dallas and we do

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This makes me wanna cry over that stupid Seahawks lost!!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

...however conversely ..you could argue that we were fortunate to win against Arizona , Miami , Dallas and NE

 

This team is 7-6 and that is just about what they deserve ..........do you really think we are an 11-2 calibre team right now ...i dont

 

As Tree says ...if we end up 8-8 we dont deserve to go to the playoffs ....

 

9-7 with 2 wins over Dallas and we do

 

 

I'm only arguing that we are an 8-5 team... the refs CLEARLY gave GB the W on more than one call.

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I'm only arguing that we are an 8-5 team... the refs CLEARLY gave GB the W on more than one call.

 

Nas ......the refs were indeed a joke in the GB game ...i grant you that ......never seen anything like it

 

( but we never led that game again after 7-0 i dont think ...did we ? )

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Nas ......the refs were indeed a joke in the GB game ...i grant you that ......never seen anything like it

 

( but we never led that game again after 7-0 i dont think ...did we ? )

 

Agreed but that's not the measure.. I can argue we didn't lead because the refs kept handing them one call after another... give us that TD by Ballard.. and we're up.. take away their TD which wasn't and we're up on the next drive.. take away that BS call against our rookie LB (his name escapes me) and they're punting not scoring. We're an 8-5 team with this team and with these coaches easily 11-2 with a good DC if not 13-0.

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Agreed but that's not the measure.. I can argue we didn't lead because the refs kept handing them one call after another... give us that TD by Ballard.. and we're up.. take away their TD which wasn't and we're up on the next drive.. take away that BS call against our rookie LB (his name escapes me) and they're punting not scoring. We're an 8-5 team with this team and with these coaches easily 11-2 with a good DC if not 13-0.

 

yes refs killed us ......agreed

 

this D ( or its coordination ) is not worthy of more than 9-7 sadly

 

im still pumped for the opportunity of making the playoffs though .......after that miraculous win in Dallas

 

Go Giants

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Agreed but that's not the measure.. I can argue we didn't lead because the refs kept handing them one call after another... give us that TD by Ballard.. and we're up.. take away their TD which wasn't and we're up on the next drive.. take away that BS call against our rookie LB (his name escapes me) and they're punting not scoring. We're an 8-5 team with this team and with these coaches easily 11-2 with a good DC if not 13-0.

 

as far as the GB game, I do honestly believe we won that game. There were just two calls that were so bad it was mind blowing.

 

The Ballard TD that was not a TD and the GB Receiver bobbling the ball while going out of bounds in the end Zone that was a TD that wasn't

 

 

14 point swing right there. On two HORRENDOUS officiating calls. And the one they called a TD that should of been over turned but wan't is even worse because they had to review it..

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as far as the GB game, I do honestly believe we won that game. There were just two calls that were so bad it was mind blowing.

 

The Ballard TD that was not a TD and the GB Receiver bobbling the ball while going out of bounds in the end Zone that was a TD that wasn't

 

 

14 point swing right there. On two HORRENDOUS officiating calls. And the one they called a TD that should of been over turned but wan't is even worse because they had to review it..

 

Yep.. beating GB is no easy feat but hey.. that's why I want to make the playoffs so bad.. only to knock them out even if we never advance after that... Thanks to the refs GB is a hated rival now.

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This makes me wanna cry over that stupid Seahawks lost!!!!!

 

 

 

...however conversely ..you could argue that we were fortunate to win against Arizona , Miami , Dallas and NE

 

This team is 7-6 and that is just about what they deserve ..........do you really think we are an 11-2 calibre team right now ...i dont

 

As Tree says ...if we end up 8-8 we dont deserve to go to the playoffs ....

 

9-7 with 2 wins over Dallas and we do

 

 

Agreed.....last in the NFL running the ball, and near last in defense.....7-6 looks like a gift.

 

But you know what's nuts????

 

Defense (total yards)....

 

#30 - Giants

#31 - Packers

#32 - Patriots

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=OPP&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&season=2011&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=true&Submit=Go

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Personally, watching the replays, I thought Ballard was out and Jennings was in.

While they don't have stills to use in reviewing plays (don't see how that isn't an option) we have photographic evidence that Ballard 's knee was down in the endzone. Also imo Jennings never had control of the ball. If that is a TD then the Calvin Johnson vs Chicago incompletion is 1000% a TD. I won't completely put the loss on the refs because the D had to step up at the end and it failed miserably, but there's no excuse for how horribly that game was called.

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