Cowboy's Draft - WTF....almost spit beer out my nose

[BleedinBlue]

Holy crap...who is calling the shots for Dallas? How can they take a guy who will very likely still be on the board in the 3rd round? They passed up a lot of gems to get a guy they could've easily gotten in the next round and probably the one after that.

 

I hope they keep it up!

[mastershake]

Also, according to Draft Value charts, the Boys got bamboozled in terms of trade value. They traded away #18 overall a 900 in draft value, got back #31 and #74 (600 + 215 = 815). So a big discrepency there.

 

In order for the trade to have been even, Draft Value-wise, is the Cowboys would need the #31 and #60 pick in exchange for the #18: this would be 900 to 900.

 

http://www.draftcoun...Value-Chart.php

 

On the other hand, nice job by the 49ers for raping the Cowboys.

[JackStroud]

Jerry is getting very senile...........were seeing Al Davis all over again.

 

I dont think we'll have to put up with the Cowboys winning the NFC nonsense in pre-season again.

[Allstarjim]

Yeah really, Travis Frederick? In all honesty, they really need help on the O-line, but you take a guy there who might be available in the 3rd, and a highly likely chance he's available at #47. And even if he's not, you have Brian Schwenke from Cal. There's still a lot of talent on the interior of the OL to be had. The tackle position is what is getting pretty scarce. But damn, really? And the Cowboys moved down 13 spots and only got a 3rd rounder out of it. Also, it appears that Jason Garrett was not happy at all about the trade, and was even more upset when the Broncos drafted Sylvester Williams. I read that when that pick was announced, Garrett slumped in his chair and face-palmed.

[mastershake]

Yeah really, Travis Frederick? In all honesty, they really need help on the O-line, but you take a guy there who might be available in the 3rd, and a highly likely chance he's available at #47. And even if he's not, you have Brian Schwenke from Cal. There's still a lot of talent on the interior of the OL to be had. The tackle position is what is getting pretty scarce. But damn, really? And the Cowboys moved down 13 spots and only got a 3rd rounder out of it. Also, it appears that Jason Garrett was not happy at all about the trade, and was even more upset when the Broncos drafted Sylvester Williams. I read that when that pick was announced, Garrett slumped in his chair and face-palmed.

 

Yep... and the 49ers have the 61st pick, which is what the Cowboys SHOULD have asked for to make the trade value relatively even, based on the value charts I posted above.

[BleedinBlue]

Almost as bad was the Vikings pretty much giving away every pick they had (2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th) in the rest of the draft to New England to move up a dozen spots. Pisses me off. Year after year, the Patriots have more picks than they can use and almost always have figured out a way to get someone else's pick for an extra first rounder. This was a great year to trade down for anyone who got the offer. The Vikings offering their 2,3,4 picks was basically bending over and asking a stranger to ass rape them...then Belicek says, "throw in another pick and I promise to rape you even harder".... and the vikes go, "okay"....duhhh.

[mastershake]

Almost as bad was the Vikings pretty much giving away every pick they had (2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th) in the rest of the draft to New England to move up a dozen spots. Pisses me off. Year after year, the Patriots have more picks than they can use and almost always have figured out a way to get someone else's pick for an extra first rounder. This was a great year to trade down for anyone who got the offer. The Vikings offering their 2,3,4 picks was basically bending over and asking a stranger to ass rape them...then Belicek says, "throw in another pick and I promise to rape you even harder".... and the vikes go, "okay"....duhhh.

 

I really liked the Vikings draft UNTIL they pulled that stunt with #29.... still, Patterson might be a good player.

[Allstarjim]

Well, the Vikings did get a potentially dominant DT in Shariff Floyd, a stud WR in Cordarelle Patterson, and a big physical corner in Xavier Rhodes. Say that all three of those guys pan out to be great players, but that's all you get... I'd sign up for that.

 

The Cowboys got Travis Frederick... and not enough in return to justifiy the difference between 18 and 31.

[BleedinBlue]

One of the problems getting so many first round picks is that it will automatically command a large portion of the salary cap. The history of first round "can't miss" busts are legion. And it sucks even more when they get half the team's available money. Not to mention, it always pisses off the old guys that have carried the team on their backs to watch kids come in making 5 times more than they do. Breeds discontent.

 

I don't know...maybe it'll work out well for the Vikes, but because of the NFL's mandated salary requirements and restrictions, it's always nice to find a number of good old fashioned lunch pail steady players later in the draft that don't require a king's ransom to keep them on the team.

[Chuck Wagon]

Holy crap...who is calling the shots for Dallas? How can they take a guy who will very likely still be on the board in the 3rd round? They passed up a lot of gems to get a guy they could've easily gotten in the next round and probably the one after that.

 

I hope they keep it up!

 

You know the answer to that BB...and he has been a total gift to the rest of the NFC since he chased Jimmy Johnson away.

 

C. Wagon

[mastershake]

One of the problems getting so many first round picks is that it will automatically command a large portion of the salary cap. The history of first round "can't miss" busts are legion. And it sucks even more when they get half the team's available money. Not to mention, it always pisses off the old guys that have carried the team on their backs to watch kids come in making 5 times more than they do. Breeds discontent.

 

I don't know...maybe it'll work out well for the Vikes, but because of the NFL's mandated salary requirements and restrictions, it's always nice to find a number of good old fashioned lunch pail steady players later in the draft that don't require a king's ransom to keep them on the team.

 

With the standard Rookie salaries from the new player agreement, likely the Viking's #29 pick's salary is relatively equal to the combined salaries of the four picks they gave away

[Allstarjim]

With the standard Rookie salaries from the new player agreement, likely the Viking's #29 pick's salary is relatively equal to the combined salaries of the four picks they gave away

 

Yup, they don't get the huge money on rookie deals like they used to. It's just not as big a deal anymore. In fact, I wouldn't mind the Giants moving up in the 2nd for a chance at Carradine or even Watson.

[Bigblue25]

Yeah, then safety help themselves, not sure why didn't jyst select Reid, then they passed on Elam and Cyprien.

[NightFire]

Almost as bad was the Vikings pretty much giving away every pick they had (2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th) in the rest of the draft to New England to move up a dozen spots. Pisses me off. Year after year, the Patriots have more picks than they can use and almost always have figured out a way to get someone else's pick for an extra first rounder. This was a great year to trade down for anyone who got the offer. The Vikings offering their 2,3,4 picks was basically bending over and asking a stranger to ass rape them...then Belicek says, "throw in another pick and I promise to rape you even harder".... and the vikes go, "okay"....duhhh.

 

Considering how well the Patriots have done year after year you'd think more teams would mimic them. They seem to be the only team that constantly trades down. If I were Reese's Pieces I'd do it. Those 3 could turn out great but injuries are a big reality. The more reasonably talented bodies you have the better chance of winning.

[Pizan]

I questioned this at first but after thinking about it I can make sense of Jones thinking. Seeing that everyone wanted to trade back the value wasn't going to be there in a trade, it was a take what you can get deal. The cowboys were on record for saying they only felt there were 16 first rounders in this draft and they wanted to trade back, which is understanding considering all their needs. They signed Romo to a big contract but also told him they'll get him OL help. So they trade back acquire another pick and draft a guy who was a 2nd-3rd round projection. Maybe not the smartest but he was rated the highest Center on a lot of boards. Do you take the 7th best tackle or the best Center on your board? Frederick is an immediate starter for them so the value is there.

 

And honestly who are we to judge we took a 2nd round projected OL at 19.

[mastershake]

Considering how well the Patriots have done year after year you'd think more teams would mimic them. They seem to be the only team that constantly trades down. If I were Reese's Pieces I'd do it. Those 3 could turn out great but injuries are a big reality. The more reasonably talented bodies you have the better chance of winning.

 

That's my strategy. It's the mathematician/statistician in me. Using the Draft Value grid, I'm all for maximizing value, and exploiting desperate teams willing to overgive or undertake, such as the vikings and cowboys respectively. From a value point of view, the Patriots and the 49ers made great moves and got the better value.

[BleedinBlue]

 

 

That's my strategy. It's the mathematician/statistician in me. Using the Draft Value grid, I'm all for maximizing value, and exploiting desperate teams willing to overgive or undertake, such as the vikings and cowboys respectively. From a value point of view, the Patriots and the 49ers made great moves and got the better value.

 

I share your affinity towards looking at everything through the mathematical prism of life...especially statistics. But the value board is based on descending value assuming players can be given an accurate mathematical number that likewise descends on a straight line slope (and there's nothing straight about it). In this draft in particular, there were clearly about 15 total studs in the group, and then the next tier of about 50 really, really good players. Giving up a no.22 pick for a no.35 and a no.40 is a steal....basically accepting a 2 for 1 raping if you are one trading up - Vaseline-free cornholing comes to mind here. The 50th best player in the draft (cannot express enough how subjective that is) is just as valuable as the 30th best player. Stocking up on 2nd and 3rd round picks is the way to go this year....unless you happen to have one of the top ten picks and your heart is set on a particular player that other teams want as well.

[BlueInCanada]

I share your affinity towards looking at everything through the mathematical prism of life...especially statistics. But the value board is based on descending value assuming players can be given an accurate mathematical number that likewise descends on a straight line slope (and there's nothing straight about it). In this draft in particular, there were clearly about 15 total studs in the group, and then the next tier of about 50 really, really good players. Giving up a no.22 pick for a no.35 and a no.40 is a steal....basically accepting a 2 for 1 raping if you are one trading up - Vaseline-free cornholing comes to mind here. The 50th best player in the draft (cannot express enough how subjective that is) is just as valuable as the 30th best player. Stocking up on 2nd and 3rd round picks is the way to go this year....unless you happen to have one of the top ten picks and your heart is set on a particular player that other teams want as well.

 

However with your point in that this year is the year when all teams want to stock up on 2,3 round picks, why would a team want to trade up to the Giant's 19th, when arguably there is no "top 20" talent in this years draft.

 

Reese said it himself that this year everyone was looking to trade down and get more picks in the later rounds and next to no one was willing to trade up.

 

To trade down you need to have a team willing to give up picks to move up and you yourself said it this is the year when you want to have those late round picks.

[Allstarjim]

Except the Cowboys may have gotten the 75th best player or so. You still have to get the pick right. The Cowboys could've gotten Matt Elam, the 32nd pick, who would've been a great choice. Or take an heir apparent to DeMarcus Ware in Sam Montgomery. And for a 3-4 team that values it's linebackers, there was a lot of value there with Kevin Minter and Arthur Brown on the board.

[BlueInCanada]

Except the Cowboys may have gotten the 75th best player or so. You still have to get the pick right. The Cowboys could've gotten Matt Elam, the 32nd pick, who would've been a great choice. Or take an heir apparent to DeMarcus Ware in Sam Montgomery. And for a 3-4 team that values it's linebackers, there was a lot of value there with Kevin Minter and Arthur Brown on the board.

 

The Cowboys are switching to a 4-3 I thought?

[Allstarjim]

BiC, just looked it up, you are right! Even more puzzling why the Cowboys didn't get a player to help in that transition. Sam Montgomery could be a good DE in a 4-3, or a 3-4 OLB. Tank Carradine, quite obviously... staring you in the face as a 4-3 DE. You have Anthony Spencer maybe projecting as the DE across from Ware, who will be just fine with his hand in the dirt, but I don't think you'd be comfortable with Spencer as a starting DE in a 4-3.

[mastershake]

I share your affinity towards looking at everything through the mathematical prism of life...especially statistics. But the value board is based on descending value assuming players can be given an accurate mathematical number that likewise descends on a straight line slope (and there's nothing straight about it). In this draft in particular, there were clearly about 15 total studs in the group, and then the next tier of about 50 really, really good players. Giving up a no.22 pick for a no.35 and a no.40 is a steal....basically accepting a 2 for 1 raping if you are one trading up - Vaseline-free cornholing comes to mind here. The 50th best player in the draft (cannot express enough how subjective that is) is just as valuable as the 30th best player. Stocking up on 2nd and 3rd round picks is the way to go this year....unless you happen to have one of the top ten picks and your heart is set on a particular player that other teams want as well.

 

Agreed, and all that definitely needs to be taken account. For example the #22 "value" assigned by the draft grid assumes a player of that calibur is even available. For the draft grid to be a perfect representation of actual draft value, it assumes the talent pool available and the team preference corresponds to the grid, which isn't always the case.

 

Like any model or metric, I feel this draft grid metric should be used as a GUIDE to decision making, one of many inputs to take into account, but certainly not as the SOLE metric to base a decision on. I do a lot of regression based models on a daily basis, and I constantly have to tell non-technical people this same principle.

 

I think the slope is more curved in a diminishing value fashion, not a straight line. Or another way of describing is it as you move closer to number 1, the curve bends upward. I'll have to plot it out to be sure.

[Sephiroth]

Holy crap...who is calling the shots for Dallas? How can they take a guy who will very likely still be on the board in the 3rd round? They passed up a lot of gems to get a guy they could've easily gotten in the next round and probably the one after that.

 

I hope they keep it up!

 

Honestly, Dallas fans are probably saying the same thing about us right now.

[Storm]

Drafts don't follow anything resembling a normal distribution so the draft value system is kind of a crapshoot....

 

I always think if you're going to trade up to the top 10, the team trading to get there should be giving up their second and third and probably a conditional the following year, along with the 1st, AT LEAST. Otherwise, it's bad business to accept anything less.

[mastershake]

Drafts don't follow anything resembling a normal distribution so the draft value system is kind of a crapshoot....

 

I always think if you're going to trade up to the top 10, the team trading to get there should be giving up their second and third and probably a conditional the following year, along with the 1st, AT LEAST. Otherwise, it's bad business to accept anything less.

 

Right, in the above, the curve I explained more resembles an exponential distribution. Either way, still a crapshoot as it's all probability.