What are the odds Dallas or GB will lose a game

[JackStroud]

50/50??

[Gman329]

Best shot is Dallas losing to Philly week 17. 2nd best would be GB losing in Arizona (also week 17), except that Arizona will probably be slotted already, so they'll have nothing to play for. Tough to conjure up a scenario where Dallas loses in Washington, after what we saw Monday night and even harder to imagine Seattle coming into GB and winning this Sunday.

 

Here's the double edged sword - Philly will need to beat Dallas to win the NFC East, so they will be playing all out....but that also provides Minnesota with motivation, as they will need to beat us to hold onto the 2nd seed. It's a dicey path any way you slice it.

[Nas]

50/50??

 

Let's just say Dallas and GB have to go 4-0 in order for us not to make the playoffs.. the odds of that happening is only 25%. Meaning IF IF.. IF the Giants win their last 2 which is a 50/50, then the odds of the Giants making the playoffs is (50 x 75 )/10,000 = .375 or 37.5%

[NYG Hampton 27]

Delete.

[Nas]

If it were coin flips, yes. But its a game, where teams are not equal, so no.

 

This is the NFL.. each game has a 50/50 chance... Washington played like shit against us but they're more than capable of beating Dallas... Carolina beat the crap out of Minny... Mathimatically speaking our odds are 37.5%... let's pray.

[NYG Hampton 27]

This is the NFL.. each game has a 50/50 chance... Washington played like shit against us but they're more than capable of beating Dallas... Carolina beat the crap out of Minny... Mathimatically speaking our odds are 37.5%... let's pray.

Each game is not 50/50.

 

But if it were. Minny and Dallas going 4-0. Would be 12.5%. 4 Ws = .5^4 = .125

 

The Giants going 2-0 would be 25%. 2 Ws = .5^2 = .25

 

So the combination would be 6.25% = .5*.125

 

But like I said, I don't think predicting games on a 50/50 basis is logical.

[Nas]

Each game is not 50/50.

 

But if it were. Minny and Dallas going 4-0. Would be 12.5%. 4 Ws = .5^4 = .125

 

The Giants going 2-0 would be 25%. 2 Ws = .5^2 = .25

 

So the combination would be 6.25% = .5*.125

 

But like I said, I don't think predicting games on a 50/50 basis is logical.

 

You can not say that because the two games are independent of one another. Each game.. not team.. each game has a 50/50 chance of either W or L... the Ties is purposely ignored here because it will confuse the issue.

[NYG Hampton 27]

You can not say that because the two games are independent of one another. Each game.. not team.. each game has a 50/50 chance of either W or L... the Ties is purposely ignored here because it will confuse the issue.

Yes each game, in your scenario has 50/50 chance. So its (.5)*(.5)*(.5)*(.5) = .5^4 = .125

 

Since each is independent, they probabilities of each must be multiplied, not added.

 

I made a mistake earlier though; in your scenario the Giants making the playoffs is (1 - .125)*.25 = 21.88%

[Sephiroth]

*sigh.

 

Remember the days when we were talking about who'd wrap up home field... NYG or New Orleans?

[fringe]

*sigh.

 

Remember the days when we were talking about who'd wrap up home field... NYG or New Orleans?

yeah, it was too easy. my dad used to say to me about the giants "they can't stand prosperity."

[BIGBLUE01]

Best shot is Dallas losing to Philly week 17. 2nd best would be GB losing in Arizona (also week 17), except that Arizona will probably be slotted already, so they'll have nothing to play for. Tough to conjure up a scenario where Dallas loses in Washington, after what we saw Monday night and even harder to imagine Seattle coming into GB and winning this Sunday.

 

Here's the double edged sword - Philly will need to beat Dallas to win the NFC East, so they will be playing all out....but that also provides Minnesota with motivation, as they will need to beat us to hold onto the 2nd seed. It's a dicey path any way you slice it.

 

 

Not true, AZ is still playing their hearts out, because they have a chance at the second seed. If they win out, and MIN loses, theyll get the second seed.

 

Question....I know if we tie with DAL we hold the tiebreaker, but do we win the tiebreaker if we tie w GB?

[hlb37]

GB is 7-3 in the conference

G-Men are 6-4.

 

Both teams have 2 conference games remaining.

 

If the Giants win out and GB loses they would both be 8-4 so.....

 

1st tie breaker = head to head

2nd tie breaker = conference record

3rd tie breaker is record against common opponents if there are at least 4 common games

4th strength of victory

5th strength f schedule

 

would probably come down to 3.

 

Dallas -- Giants 2-0 // Packers 1-0

TB -- Giants 3-0 // Packers 1-1

Ariz -- Giants 3-1 // TBD

Minn -- Giants 4-1 // 1-3

 

so the pack can be no better than 2 - 3 against common opponents.

 

a 3 way tie would be different but I will let someone else work on that one.

[JackStroud]

GB is 7-3 in the conference

G-Men are 6-4.

 

Both teams have 2 conference games remaining.

 

If the Giants win out and GB loses they would both be 8-4 so.....

 

1st tie breaker = head to head

2nd tie breaker = conference record

3rd tie breaker is record against common opponents if there are at least 4 common games

4th strength of victory

5th strength f schedule

 

would probably come down to 3.

 

Dallas -- Giants 2-0 // Packers 1-0

TB -- Giants 3-0 // Packers 1-1

Ariz -- Giants 3-1 // TBD

Minn -- Giants 4-1 // 1-3

 

so the pack can be no better than 2 - 3 against common opponents.

 

a 3 way tie would be different but I will let someone else work on that one.

 

 

We win all the tie breakers head to head and 3 way.........trouble is right now were not tied.....were one game behind both

 

we have no one to blame but ourselves and Bill Sheridan (who seems to have come out of a coma with 3 games to go in the regular season , yippee) for that

[UK-Giantsfan]

how about this for an utterly crazy scenario .....ending up with the last ever game at Giants Stadium being the NFC Championship Game !

 

if the GIANTS win out and Dallas and GB BOTH lose one game,

Dallas would be eliminated,

the Giants would be the #5 seed, GB would be #6 seed.

 

the GIANTS #5 would go to Arizona #4 (and win hopefully)

the Packers #6 would go to Philly #3 (and win, hopefully)

 

the Giants #5 would then go to MINN #2(and win, hopefully)

the Packers #6 would go to SAINTS #1(and win, hopefully)

 

the Packers #6 @ GIANTS #5 for the last ever game

at GIANTS STADIUM.

 

what a f***ing awsome way to close it down ?

 

it will never happen ......but it's good to dream

 

Happy Christmas to you all at Sportswrath ...and go Giants

 

regards UK

[NightFire]

Yes each game, in your scenario has 50/50 chance. So its (.5)*(.5)*(.5)*(.5) = .5^4 = .125

 

Since each is independent, they probabilities of each must be multiplied, not added.

 

I made a mistake earlier though; in your scenario the Giants making the playoffs is (1 - .125)*.25 = 21.88%

 

You guys are confusing probability with statistics. The probability of a team winning is 50/50, no ties which rarely occurs anyway, but statistically the chance of winning or losing is something different. Just like the probability of winning the lottery is 50/50, you win or you lose, but statistically the chance of winning is much different; and more realistic.

[NeMesiS]

yeah, it was too easy. my dad used to say to me about the giants "they can't stand prosperity."

 

That's funny, my father use to say to me 'I SWEAR TO FUCKING GOD, THE GIANTS ARE GOING TO BE THE DEATH OF ME!" That was right after the Flipper Anderson play.

[Nas]

Not true, AZ is still playing their hearts out, because they have a chance at the second seed. If they win out, and MIN loses, theyll get the second seed.

Question....I know if we tie with DAL we hold the tiebreaker, but do we win the tiebreaker if we tie w GB?

 

We hold the tie breakers over Dallas and GB not sure how exactly but it has to be either NFC record or common opponents etc.

[Treehugger]

how about this for an utterly crazy scenario .....ending up with the last ever game at Giants Stadium being the NFC Championship Game !

 

if the GIANTS win out and Dallas and GB BOTH lose one game,

Dallas would be eliminated,

the Giants would be the #5 seed, GB would be #6 seed.

 

the GIANTS #5 would go to Arizona #4 (and win hopefully)

the Packers #6 would go to Philly #3 (and win, hopefully)

 

the Giants #5 would then go to MINN #2(and win, hopefully)

the Packers #6 would go to SAINTS #1(and win, hopefully)

 

the Packers #6 @ GIANTS #5 for the last ever game

at GIANTS STADIUM.

 

what a f***ing awsome way to close it down ?

 

it will never happen ......but it's good to dream

 

Happy Christmas to you all at Sportswrath ...and go Giants

 

regards UK

[fringe]

Not true, AZ is still playing their hearts out, because they have a chance at the second seed. If they win out, and MIN loses, theyll get the second seed.

 

wouldn't they need philly to fall apart as well?

[fringe]

That's funny, my father use to say to me 'I SWEAR TO FUCKING GOD, THE GIANTS ARE GOING TO BE THE DEATH OF ME!" That was right after the Flipper Anderson play.

yeah, i cleaned it up a little.

[BIGBLUE01]

wouldn't they need philly to fall apart as well?

 

True, I was reading it in the paper before work yesterday, I just skimmed thru real quick, but thats the message Wisenhunt is sending to the players. No resting the starters, they want a higher seed.

[Gman329]

Assuming Philly beats Denver and Cards beat Rams this week, it comes down to: who wins the tie-breaker between Philly & Arizona? If Philly, Cards will be locked into 4th seed by week 17 and will have nothing to play for. If Arizona wins tie-breaker, they can take 3rd seed by beating GB while Dallas beats Philly, both finish 11-5....so they'd have that to play for - 3rd seed instead of 4th (for what it's worth).

 

Of course, that's assuming both cards & Philly win this week.