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Super Bowl Madden Simulation


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FWIW: The AccuScore simulation released the morning after the Conference Finals had the Pats winning about 2/3rds of the time by an average of a little less than 4 points.

 

 

AccuScore say their results are based on the results of 10000 game simulations. They don't go into more detail than that but it sure sounds like a basic "Monte Carlo" simulation to me.

 

 

Does this mean it is truly "accurate"? Nope. It just tells you what is "most probable". There is also no way to know what biases may exist in their game model. Do they give additional weight to recent game stats or do they just look at straight numeric averages etc.

 

In light of this though, I did find it interesting that the line opened Pats -3.5 ( lines up with the AccuScore result )

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Just clipped the betting lines out of Sunday's paper...

 

Overall, Pats still favored by 3.5

 

Interesting betting lines include:

 

O/U of 1 minute, 34 seconds -- length of national anthem (Kelly Clarkson)

O/U of 5.5 seconds -- length of time Clarkson holds the word "brave"

O/U of 5.5 times -- they will show Peyton Manning on TV

O/U of 2.5 times -- they will mention Andrew Luck on TV

O/U of 46.5 -- Neilson Rating for the game

O/U of 115 million -- number of viewers

 

there are a bunch of others..

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Just clipped the betting lines out of Sunday's paper...

 

Overall, Pats still favored by 3.5

 

Interesting betting lines include:

 

O/U of 1 minute, 34 seconds -- length of national anthem (Kelly Clarkson)

O/U of 5.5 seconds -- length of time Clarkson holds the word "brave"

O/U of 5.5 times -- they will show Peyton Manning on TV

O/U of 2.5 times -- they will mention Andrew Luck on TV

O/U of 46.5 -- Neilson Rating for the game

O/U of 115 million -- number of viewers

 

there are a bunch of others..

 

What about how many times 2007 is mentioned?

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I am very optimistic, maybe a bad sign, about this game. In 2007 I was a hopeful fan but this time the Giants are a very good team. If, big if, they execute reasonably well then I think they win by 7+ points. The Patriots do not impress me.

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The Patriots are a potent team. All year I've been hearing how they don't have weapons, which is ridiculous. They are loaded with weapons, and most people just underrate the players they have, because they don't have a traditional #1 like they had in 2007 in Randy Moss.

 

This is a team used Aaron Hernandez as a running back 5 times for 61 yards. It's a team that has the TE that had the most prolific season ever, in the history of the NFL. I mean, read that again. Better than the Shannon Sharpe seasons, Gates, Tony Gonzalez's, I would say that is a pretty awesome weapon. The stable of running backs they have can all hurt you, because you have to respect the 2 TE's, Welker, and Branch. Stevan Ridley hasn't really been used, but I'm worried about him big time in this game. He is a terrific player that can hurt you, they've just kept him in the back pocket. Even Edelman, I would be surprised if I DIDN'T see him on a reverse in this game.

 

They do a lot of different things and they have a plethora of weapons, and they are well-coached. If you drop your guard with any of them, they'll hurt you bad. Giants will have to stay well-disciplined this game and maintain their gaps. I think Brady is going to rely on some quick passes and they will throw in some screens and reverses to try and slow down the pass rush.

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The Patriots are a potent team. All year I've been hearing how they don't have weapons, which is ridiculous. They are loaded with weapons, and most people just underrate the players they have, because they don't have a traditional #1 like they had in 2007 in Randy Moss.

 

This is a team used Aaron Hernandez as a running back 5 times for 61 yards. It's a team that has the TE that had the most prolific season ever, in the history of the NFL. I mean, read that again. Better than the Shannon Sharpe seasons, Gates, Tony Gonzalez's, I would say that is a pretty awesome weapon. The stable of running backs they have can all hurt you, because you have to respect the 2 TE's, Welker, and Branch. Stevan Ridley hasn't really been used, but I'm worried about him big time in this game. He is a terrific player that can hurt you, they've just kept him in the back pocket. Even Edelman, I would be surprised if I DIDN'T see him on a reverse in this game.

 

They do a lot of different things and they have a plethora of weapons, and they are well-coached. If you drop your guard with any of them, they'll hurt you bad. Giants will have to stay well-disciplined this game and maintain their gaps. I think Brady is going to rely on some quick passes and they will throw in some screens and reverses to try and slow down the pass rush.

 

 

also, much like us, their defense improved dramatically when a couple of key guys returned healthy down the stretch.

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I am very optimistic, maybe a bad sign, about this game. In 2007 I was a hopeful fan but this time the Giants are a very good team. If, big if, they execute reasonably well then I think they win by 7+ points. The Patriots do not impress me.

 

I'm very nervous.. which is a good sign.

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I'm very nervous.. which is a good sign.

 

How can you not be. The past three times these teams have played it's been a nail biter. Fuck the spread and the Madden simulations. I can;t take the anticipation anymore........................................

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How can you not be. The past three times these teams have played it's been a nail biter. Fuck the spread and the Madden simulations. I can;t take the anticipation anymore........................................

 

I am actually not that nervous, which of course makes me really, really nervous.

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I am actually not that nervous, which of course makes me really, really nervous.

 

 

here is some food for thought. How many teams have beaten the bill belichick run pats three times out of the past three meetings? I'm suprsied the talking heads haven't been ringing that one home.

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here is some food for thought. How many teams have beaten the bill belichick run pats three times out of the past three meetings? I'm suprsied the talking heads haven't been ringing that one home.

 

Yes, especially in light of the fact that they both coached under Parcel's for 3 years culminating with the 1990 / 91 SB win over the Bills.

 

These are two guys that have to have a fair amount of insight into each other's coaching style and focus. Really interesting story in there although neither guy would have anything but platitudes for their opposite number going in.

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here is some food for thought. How many teams have beaten the bill belichick run pats three times out of the past three meetings? I'm suprsied the talking heads haven't been ringing that one home.

 

This is what makes me nervous the most, also the fact the a lot of people are liking the Giants. The Giants need to play the game of their lives and come out shooting. I'd love a quick TD first or 2nd play to take all the momentum and never let it go.

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This is what makes me nervous the most, also the fact the a lot of people are liking the Giants. The Giants need to play the game of their lives and come out shooting. I'd love a quick TD first or 2nd play to take all the momentum and never let it go.

 

The last superbowl I was almost resolved to the fact that the Giants had no chance. This year at first I thought to myself they got this. Now after some time to think I'm more unsure about this game. If history has any bearing on this game it will come down to the wire and it's anyones game. I just find it hard to believe Bill will lose to any NFL team three times in three meetings statistically things are stacked against the Giants I would think.

 

Still after the Saints, seattle and the punck bitch effort they put into the last eagles game I can't believe this team is where it is. If this turn around isn't evidence that attitude and emotion doesn;t play a huge part in winning in sports I don;t know what does.

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I just find it hard to believe Bill will lose to any NFL team three times in three meetings statistically things are stacked against the Giants I would think.

 

 

Only if you believe in path dependency.

 

It's the old thing about flipping a fair coin. You would predict that if you flipped 100 times you would get 50 heads and 50 tails. If you flip heads 99 times in a row however, the 100th toss is still 50 - 50.

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Only if you believe in path dependency.

 

It's the old thing about flipping a fair coin. You would predict that if you flipped 100 times you would get 50 heads and 50 tails. If you flip heads 99 times in a row however, the 100th toss is still 50 - 50.

 

Past circusmatnce in this case are relivent they played this year. Certain elements of those games remain consistent. But I see where you are coming from.

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Past circusmatnce in this case are relivent they played this year. Certain elements of those games remain consistent. But I see where you are coming from.

 

I agree that the week 9 match up has some bearing on this game.

 

SB from 4 years ago? Not so much.

 

 

I think it is the same story for us as it has been all year. If we can slow down the running game on 1st down and take care of football possession on offense and returns we will win the game.

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Only if you believe in path dependency.

 

It's the old thing about flipping a fair coin. You would predict that if you flipped 100 times you would get 50 heads and 50 tails. If you flip heads 99 times in a row however, the 100th toss is still 50 - 50.

 

The difference between probability and statistics.

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It's one game. Just be better for 60 minutes. It's that simple and that difficult. I think the overall feel from the media is underrating the Patriots which I think is absurd but that isn't for the Giants to worry about. I think the one thing we really have going for us is the player from the '07 game who has shown the most improvement and is essentially a different guy is Eli.

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It's one game. Just be better for 60 minutes. It's that simple and that difficult. I think the overall feel from the media is underrating the Patriots which I think is absurd but that isn't for the Giants to worry about. I think the one thing we really have going for us is the player from the '07 game who has shown the most improvement and is essentially a different guy is Eli.

 

The media is underating them but vegas is not. Aren't the pats three point favorites? Giants are the underdogs in this game yet ESPN and the talking heads of the NFL are taking the Giants. Doesn;t this always seem to point to disaster. Baltimore was favored by 3 and destroyed the Giants in the superbowl.

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The media is underating them but vegas is not. Aren't the pats three point favorites? Giants are the underdogs in this game yet ESPN and the talking heads of the NFL are taking the Giants. Doesn;t this always seem to point to disaster. Baltimore was favored by 3 and destroyed the Giants in the superbowl.

 

This right here is why I am nervous about this game.

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The Patriots are a potent team. All year I've been hearing how they don't have weapons, which is ridiculous. They are loaded with weapons, and most people just underrate the players they have, because they don't have a traditional #1 like they had in 2007 in Randy Moss.

 

This is a team used Aaron Hernandez as a running back 5 times for 61 yards. It's a team that has the TE that had the most prolific season ever, in the history of the NFL. I mean, read that again. Better than the Shannon Sharpe seasons, Gates, Tony Gonzalez's, I would say that is a pretty awesome weapon. The stable of running backs they have can all hurt you, because you have to respect the 2 TE's, Welker, and Branch. Stevan Ridley hasn't really been used, but I'm worried about him big time in this game. He is a terrific player that can hurt you, they've just kept him in the back pocket. Even Edelman, I would be surprised if I DIDN'T see him on a reverse in this game.

 

They do a lot of different things and they have a plethora of weapons, and they are well-coached. If you drop your guard with any of them, they'll hurt you bad. Giants will have to stay well-disciplined this game and maintain their gaps. I think Brady is going to rely on some quick passes and they will throw in some screens and reverses to try and slow down the pass rush.

 

 

Great points.....and last game, the Giants witnessed first hand how much damage an elite TE can do to their defense.

 

I'm a little surprised with some fans (not necessarily on this board, but just in general) that are acting like this thing is in the bag.

 

The Giants are going to need to have their best game of the year.....and by that, the Giants offense has to torch the Patriots, because I'm not expecting the defense to hold Brady to 14 points again.

 

All the humble talk aside, this game is the biggest game of Brady's life, and Belichick's.

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