Clarence the Blue Puppet Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Giants Win 27-24 on a last second field goal by Tynes. http://espn.go.com/new-york/video/clip?id=7521363 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlb37 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 FWIW: The AccuScore simulation released the morning after the Conference Finals had the Pats winning about 2/3rds of the time by an average of a little less than 4 points. AccuScore say their results are based on the results of 10000 game simulations. They don't go into more detail than that but it sure sounds like a basic "Monte Carlo" simulation to me. Does this mean it is truly "accurate"? Nope. It just tells you what is "most probable". There is also no way to know what biases may exist in their game model. Do they give additional weight to recent game stats or do they just look at straight numeric averages etc. In light of this though, I did find it interesting that the line opened Pats -3.5 ( lines up with the AccuScore result ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmenroc Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Just clipped the betting lines out of Sunday's paper... Overall, Pats still favored by 3.5 Interesting betting lines include: O/U of 1 minute, 34 seconds -- length of national anthem (Kelly Clarkson) O/U of 5.5 seconds -- length of time Clarkson holds the word "brave" O/U of 5.5 times -- they will show Peyton Manning on TV O/U of 2.5 times -- they will mention Andrew Luck on TV O/U of 46.5 -- Neilson Rating for the game O/U of 115 million -- number of viewers there are a bunch of others.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragon Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Just clipped the betting lines out of Sunday's paper... Overall, Pats still favored by 3.5 Interesting betting lines include: O/U of 1 minute, 34 seconds -- length of national anthem (Kelly Clarkson) O/U of 5.5 seconds -- length of time Clarkson holds the word "brave" O/U of 5.5 times -- they will show Peyton Manning on TV O/U of 2.5 times -- they will mention Andrew Luck on TV O/U of 46.5 -- Neilson Rating for the game O/U of 115 million -- number of viewers there are a bunch of others.. What about how many times 2007 is mentioned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmenroc Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 What about how many times 2007 is mentioned? Not listed, but I'll take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightFire Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am very optimistic, maybe a bad sign, about this game. In 2007 I was a hopeful fan but this time the Giants are a very good team. If, big if, they execute reasonably well then I think they win by 7+ points. The Patriots do not impress me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allstarjim Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The Patriots are a potent team. All year I've been hearing how they don't have weapons, which is ridiculous. They are loaded with weapons, and most people just underrate the players they have, because they don't have a traditional #1 like they had in 2007 in Randy Moss. This is a team used Aaron Hernandez as a running back 5 times for 61 yards. It's a team that has the TE that had the most prolific season ever, in the history of the NFL. I mean, read that again. Better than the Shannon Sharpe seasons, Gates, Tony Gonzalez's, I would say that is a pretty awesome weapon. The stable of running backs they have can all hurt you, because you have to respect the 2 TE's, Welker, and Branch. Stevan Ridley hasn't really been used, but I'm worried about him big time in this game. He is a terrific player that can hurt you, they've just kept him in the back pocket. Even Edelman, I would be surprised if I DIDN'T see him on a reverse in this game. They do a lot of different things and they have a plethora of weapons, and they are well-coached. If you drop your guard with any of them, they'll hurt you bad. Giants will have to stay well-disciplined this game and maintain their gaps. I think Brady is going to rely on some quick passes and they will throw in some screens and reverses to try and slow down the pass rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlb37 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The Patriots are a potent team. All year I've been hearing how they don't have weapons, which is ridiculous. They are loaded with weapons, and most people just underrate the players they have, because they don't have a traditional #1 like they had in 2007 in Randy Moss. This is a team used Aaron Hernandez as a running back 5 times for 61 yards. It's a team that has the TE that had the most prolific season ever, in the history of the NFL. I mean, read that again. Better than the Shannon Sharpe seasons, Gates, Tony Gonzalez's, I would say that is a pretty awesome weapon. The stable of running backs they have can all hurt you, because you have to respect the 2 TE's, Welker, and Branch. Stevan Ridley hasn't really been used, but I'm worried about him big time in this game. He is a terrific player that can hurt you, they've just kept him in the back pocket. Even Edelman, I would be surprised if I DIDN'T see him on a reverse in this game. They do a lot of different things and they have a plethora of weapons, and they are well-coached. If you drop your guard with any of them, they'll hurt you bad. Giants will have to stay well-disciplined this game and maintain their gaps. I think Brady is going to rely on some quick passes and they will throw in some screens and reverses to try and slow down the pass rush. also, much like us, their defense improved dramatically when a couple of key guys returned healthy down the stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrashTalker92 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yeah. There are a lot of crazy prop bets when it comes to the superbowl. We always do the coin flip and how long singer drags the national anthem. But don't think we do it this year. Bodog or whatever the name is now is charging crazy amount for deposit and payouts. Not worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firstnten Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2008/01/30/pats_win_super_bowl_xlii__in_madden_nfl_08/?page=full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nas Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am very optimistic, maybe a bad sign, about this game. In 2007 I was a hopeful fan but this time the Giants are a very good team. If, big if, they execute reasonably well then I think they win by 7+ points. The Patriots do not impress me. I'm very nervous.. which is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firstnten Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'm very nervous.. which is a good sign. How can you not be. The past three times these teams have played it's been a nail biter. Fuck the spread and the Madden simulations. I can;t take the anticipation anymore........................................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlb37 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 How can you not be. The past three times these teams have played it's been a nail biter. Fuck the spread and the Madden simulations. I can;t take the anticipation anymore........................................ I am actually not that nervous, which of course makes me really, really nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firstnten Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am actually not that nervous, which of course makes me really, really nervous. here is some food for thought. How many teams have beaten the bill belichick run pats three times out of the past three meetings? I'm suprsied the talking heads haven't been ringing that one home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlb37 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 here is some food for thought. How many teams have beaten the bill belichick run pats three times out of the past three meetings? I'm suprsied the talking heads haven't been ringing that one home. Yes, especially in light of the fact that they both coached under Parcel's for 3 years culminating with the 1990 / 91 SB win over the Bills. These are two guys that have to have a fair amount of insight into each other's coaching style and focus. Really interesting story in there although neither guy would have anything but platitudes for their opposite number going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarence the Blue Puppet Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 here is some food for thought. How many teams have beaten the bill belichick run pats three times out of the past three meetings? I'm suprsied the talking heads haven't been ringing that one home. This is what makes me nervous the most, also the fact the a lot of people are liking the Giants. The Giants need to play the game of their lives and come out shooting. I'd love a quick TD first or 2nd play to take all the momentum and never let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firstnten Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This is what makes me nervous the most, also the fact the a lot of people are liking the Giants. The Giants need to play the game of their lives and come out shooting. I'd love a quick TD first or 2nd play to take all the momentum and never let it go. The last superbowl I was almost resolved to the fact that the Giants had no chance. This year at first I thought to myself they got this. Now after some time to think I'm more unsure about this game. If history has any bearing on this game it will come down to the wire and it's anyones game. I just find it hard to believe Bill will lose to any NFL team three times in three meetings statistically things are stacked against the Giants I would think. Still after the Saints, seattle and the punck bitch effort they put into the last eagles game I can't believe this team is where it is. If this turn around isn't evidence that attitude and emotion doesn;t play a huge part in winning in sports I don;t know what does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlb37 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I just find it hard to believe Bill will lose to any NFL team three times in three meetings statistically things are stacked against the Giants I would think. Only if you believe in path dependency. It's the old thing about flipping a fair coin. You would predict that if you flipped 100 times you would get 50 heads and 50 tails. If you flip heads 99 times in a row however, the 100th toss is still 50 - 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firstnten Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Only if you believe in path dependency. It's the old thing about flipping a fair coin. You would predict that if you flipped 100 times you would get 50 heads and 50 tails. If you flip heads 99 times in a row however, the 100th toss is still 50 - 50. Past circusmatnce in this case are relivent they played this year. Certain elements of those games remain consistent. But I see where you are coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlb37 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Past circusmatnce in this case are relivent they played this year. Certain elements of those games remain consistent. But I see where you are coming from. I agree that the week 9 match up has some bearing on this game. SB from 4 years ago? Not so much. I think it is the same story for us as it has been all year. If we can slow down the running game on 1st down and take care of football possession on offense and returns we will win the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightFire Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Only if you believe in path dependency. It's the old thing about flipping a fair coin. You would predict that if you flipped 100 times you would get 50 heads and 50 tails. If you flip heads 99 times in a row however, the 100th toss is still 50 - 50. The difference between probability and statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steitzenhaus Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It's one game. Just be better for 60 minutes. It's that simple and that difficult. I think the overall feel from the media is underrating the Patriots which I think is absurd but that isn't for the Giants to worry about. I think the one thing we really have going for us is the player from the '07 game who has shown the most improvement and is essentially a different guy is Eli. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firstnten Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It's one game. Just be better for 60 minutes. It's that simple and that difficult. I think the overall feel from the media is underrating the Patriots which I think is absurd but that isn't for the Giants to worry about. I think the one thing we really have going for us is the player from the '07 game who has shown the most improvement and is essentially a different guy is Eli. The media is underating them but vegas is not. Aren't the pats three point favorites? Giants are the underdogs in this game yet ESPN and the talking heads of the NFL are taking the Giants. Doesn;t this always seem to point to disaster. Baltimore was favored by 3 and destroyed the Giants in the superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarence the Blue Puppet Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 The media is underating them but vegas is not. Aren't the pats three point favorites? Giants are the underdogs in this game yet ESPN and the talking heads of the NFL are taking the Giants. Doesn;t this always seem to point to disaster. Baltimore was favored by 3 and destroyed the Giants in the superbowl. This right here is why I am nervous about this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMFP Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The Patriots are a potent team. All year I've been hearing how they don't have weapons, which is ridiculous. They are loaded with weapons, and most people just underrate the players they have, because they don't have a traditional #1 like they had in 2007 in Randy Moss. This is a team used Aaron Hernandez as a running back 5 times for 61 yards. It's a team that has the TE that had the most prolific season ever, in the history of the NFL. I mean, read that again. Better than the Shannon Sharpe seasons, Gates, Tony Gonzalez's, I would say that is a pretty awesome weapon. The stable of running backs they have can all hurt you, because you have to respect the 2 TE's, Welker, and Branch. Stevan Ridley hasn't really been used, but I'm worried about him big time in this game. He is a terrific player that can hurt you, they've just kept him in the back pocket. Even Edelman, I would be surprised if I DIDN'T see him on a reverse in this game. They do a lot of different things and they have a plethora of weapons, and they are well-coached. If you drop your guard with any of them, they'll hurt you bad. Giants will have to stay well-disciplined this game and maintain their gaps. I think Brady is going to rely on some quick passes and they will throw in some screens and reverses to try and slow down the pass rush. Great points.....and last game, the Giants witnessed first hand how much damage an elite TE can do to their defense. I'm a little surprised with some fans (not necessarily on this board, but just in general) that are acting like this thing is in the bag. The Giants are going to need to have their best game of the year.....and by that, the Giants offense has to torch the Patriots, because I'm not expecting the defense to hold Brady to 14 points again. All the humble talk aside, this game is the biggest game of Brady's life, and Belichick's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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