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Draft Talk - RB


Allstarjim
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So I'm convinced that what the Giants will do, and what the smart thing to do, is to draft a RB in the first 2 rounds, but no later than the 3rd round. It's been discussed before why the Giants have a need there, but now with Jacobs gone, they really need to go there. Sure, free agency isn't over and something could happen, but I doubt it. RB life spans in the NFL are so short, and the smart thing to do is get the fresh legs out of college and think about the future, not just the next year or two.

 

What we know about the position group as it's currently constituted is that Bradshaw is very talented, but has bad feet, and can't be counted on for 250 carries in a season. Ware is fundamentally sound, but doesn't pose a major threat to defenses. Scott has blazing speed but may not be able to run between the tackles, and even if he can, he may not hold onto the ball when he does. Then there is Andre Brown, who is a unknown, has had some surgeries, and couldn't hang on elsewhere.

 

All that adds up to a big opportunity for someone in the draft to come in and establish himself as the next great RB... but who? There are some that would say we shouldn't draft a running back until the middle to late rounds, citing Brandon Jacobs (4th round of the 2005 draft), and Ahmad Bradshaw (7th round, 2007 draft) as late picks that have had success. I say that's nonsense. Who knows, maybe it's some kind of hang over from the 1st round pick of Ron Dayne (1st round, 2000). But consider the aforementioned Andre Brown (4th round, 2009), and Sean Bennett (4th round, 1999), that not all mid to late rounders are going to pan out as well as Jacobs and Bradshaw, or even to a lesser extent, Derrick Ward (7th round, 2004). As I've pointed out before, the greatest Giant RB of all-time is Tiki Barber, a 2nd rounder, in 1997. Rodney Hampton was a 1st rounder (1990), and Joe Morris was a 2nd rounder (1982). Then there's Tyrone Wheatley (1st round, 1995), who wasn't as bad as most people remember, but wasn't worthy of his place in the draft, either.

 

You look at the Giants draft history at RB and there are hits and misses all over the place. Do you remember Gary Downs? Me neither. 3rd rounder, 1994. In 1999, the Giants swung and missed twice... with Joe Montgomery in the 2nd round and Sean Bennett in the 4th.

 

But it would seem to me that you have a better chance of getting that game changer, a prime time player, earlier rather than later. If you looked at the NFL's top 10 rushers from last season relative to their draft position, you would find this:

 

 

Jones-Drew - 2nd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

Michael Turner - 5th round

LeSean McCoy - 2nd Round

Arian Foster - Undrafted

Frank Gore - 3rd round (But the 1st pick of the 3rd round!)

Marshawn Lynch - 1st round

Willis McGahee - 1st round

Steven Jackson - 1st round

Ryan Mathews - 1st round

 

So you have four 1st rounders, three 2nd rounders, and the first pick of the 3rd round in there. Looks to me like the cream of the crop is in the early rounds. Sure, the Giants could try to find that diamond in the rough again like an Arian Foster or like they did with Ahmad Bradshaw... but can they really afford to take that chance this year? I think it's pretty important to land that stud RB this go-round. So without further ado, here are the candidates, and feel free to add those you like that I don't mention:

 

Trent Richardson, 5'9", 228 lbs, Alabama: For me he's the over-hyped #1 RB prospect from Alabama for the 2nd year in a row. I do think he's a better prospect than last year's supposed prize (future bust), Mark Ingram, but IMO, he's not really the best RB in this class, and maybe not in the top 5. He has big numbers but he also ran behind probably the best offensive line in college football. I like his power but not enough explosiveness for me. He won't be able to shed tacklers in the NFL quite as easily as he did at Alabama. He'll be gone early in the first round though because someone (Tampa Bay?) will be duped into thinking he could be the next Adrian Peterson (he's not), just like New Orleans was duped last year with Ingram.

 

Lamar Miller, 5'11", 212, Miami: Sure, Miller has been projected by many as a 2nd rounder, but his production, athleticism, and power/speed mix means he's a guy that GM's aren't going to talk about, but will secretly hope he's there in the 2nd half of the first round. While I'm not a fan of translating 40 times to NFL success, he did run the fastest 40 at the NFL combine among the RB's (4.40).

 

Miller:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVoKjbx3QC4

 

David Wilson, 5'10", 206, Virginia Tech: If conventional wisdom plays out, he will be selected BEFORE Lamar Miller, not after. He does have all the speed and power mix that is palpatable, and has crazy good production. This guy might be the best RB in this class. You look at his tape and he looks like a beast. You look at his production and it shows he was consistently dominant. Whether he goes before Miller or after, if we have a shot at either one, I'd be happy if Reese used his first rounder on him.

 

Wilson:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqAd8H6Vt8A

 

Later: Doug Martin, Chris Polk, Isaiah Pead, and LaMichael James.

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Going by these highlights, I'm really liking David Wilson, much moreso than Lamar Miller... I see very nice hands out of the backfield, lots of catches on those highlights, and he runs with good pace behind his blockers then explodes when the hole opens up.

 

Miller looks like a bust.... all go, full speed all the time, looks like he reverses field a lot, unless he's Barry Sanders-esque he'll lose lots of yardage.

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To be honest, I was torn on the RB position before Jacob's departure. Now, we have a hole to fill for sure. I think that the front office likes to fill holes in FA, thereby giving them the flexibility to take BPA in the draft. So, I really think that the Giants should look at a guy like Tolbert first, so long as he comes in relatively cheap...which probably won't happen.

 

I'm not sold at all on Ware. I trust the Giants coaching staff enough to be fine with him as a depth guy, and as a 3rd RB, I wasn't bitching. But I don't have the confidence in him at all to move him up to #2. I just don't see enough production out of him when he does get his chances.

 

Scott - just hasn't gotten enough opportunities. Granted, he's put the ball on the turf a few times in the chance he has gotten, but for all we know, that was first chance, first NFL game jitters. I don't want him going anywhere before he gets one more chance.

 

At the end of the day, I think we draft a RB. A few weeks ago when I first looked at draft picks, Bernard Pierce intrigued me as a 3rd round guy. That was pre-combine though and I'm not certain where he's now projected. Doug Martin was also a guy who caught my eye, but he was more a 2nd round guy at that time.

 

I still don't think we go RB in the first. I think TE or OLine depth is the way to go. CB/S might not be the worst either.

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i could live with a 2nd but not a first. top 6 rushers last year were 2nd round and later. running backs are way too easy to find and too risk averse to pay a premium 1st round pick.

 

i'd love to sign michael bush or mike tolbert if they aren't too expensive

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Guest StrahansGap

C'mon guys. You should all know better. Reese will be taking the best DE available....period. He's always confident there will be a sleeper around in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to fill out the "sexy" positions. I guarantee he takes a defensive end in the first round.

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C'mon guys. You should all know better. Reese will be taking the best DE available....period. He's always confident there will be a sleeper around in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to fill out the "sexy" positions. I guarantee he takes a defensive end in the first round.

 

Yep.

 

Your guaranteed that the first three rounds will see the Giants picking a WR, DB, and someone on the DL... not necessarily in that order.

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i could live with a 2nd but not a first. top 6 rushers last year were 2nd round and later. running backs are way too easy to find and too risk averse to pay a premium 1st round pick.

 

i'd love to sign michael bush or mike tolbert if they aren't too expensive

 

I think Bush would be a great fit.

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The only thing with DE and some of the arguments against taking a RB in the first is that we pick LAST. Picking #32, it's unlikely there will be value at DE at that point. But there will definitely be value at RB. And if you wait until pick #64, that is risky, and you might not be left with ANY of the premier talents at RB. To me, there's a big drop-off after Chris Polk/LaMichael James territory to Bernard Pierce and the rest of the field. I think the Giants HAVE to get Wilson, Miller, Pead, Polk, or Doug Martin. All those guys could be taken before pick 64. So while I would love to get say, Colby Fleener in the first, I really hope someone like Martin, Pead, or Polk will last until our pick in the second if that happens.

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