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Mock Draft Trends


HOUND

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Like many of you, I tend to view mock drafts more as entertainment than for informational purposes, however I have noticed that a comparison of multiple mock drafts by credible industry sources can identify which players are rising and falling. I started doing that this week and checked out close to 10 mocks from different draft sites.

 

Here's what I noticed:

 

The most consistent trend is that the Running Backs (Bush excluded) are falling. LenDale White's freefall is a bit expected based on his poor Pro Day and worse attitiude. But DeAngelo Williams also seems to have slipped. Few mock drafts have Williams going in the top 20 at this point, which is a bit surprising considering his solid combine and good character. The only RB who appears to have gained a bit is Laurence Maroney who is being mentioned for the Colts at the end of the first. Still I think this is a case of Maroney's skill set matching Indy well and draftniks overanalyzing the loss of Ed James. By simply grading the player, most sites don't assign a first round value on Maroney.

 

If there's one player nobody agrees on it's Jay Cutler. A few sources think he could go top 5. There are a couple more who think the Raiders may take him in the top 10 (methinks unlikely), then there are multiple teams in the 11-15 range who could arguably take him. He really is a bit of an X-Factor. Nobody knows where he'll end up. Personally I don't think he goes top 10. I do think he could slide all the way to Miami at 16. I can't see him getting past the Vikings at 17 but if they had to choose between he and Ernie Sims ... well I guess I could see him sliding further!

 

Cornerback ... land of the bust? GM's need to tread carefully at the CB slot this season. There isn't a single textbook shutdown corner in the draft. Usually there's at least one. Every one of the top candidates seems to carry some risk. Look no further than the lack of a concensus opinion on the prospect rankings. If none of the sources can decide who's best you have to consider that any early pick spent on a corner is a significant risk.

 

- Jimmy Williams carries the highest grade according to most sources but most felt, prior to his senior season, that he'd be a top 10 selection. He didn't quite fulfill that expectation. Getting kicked out of the ACC Championship game didn't help. Frank Coyle has Williams as the 3rd ranked CB in the draft, the worst I've see him ranked.

 

- Ashton Youboty ... some pub's have him going top 20, others have him mid second round. Youboty has fine measurables and likely won't dissapoint but I can't help but feel he's getting an inflated grade based on the relative success of recent Ohio State corners. Unlike guys like Chris Gamble, I don't see Youboty being able to contribute immediately. Remember, he skipped his senior season. Good prospect, but needs a year of seasoning.

 

- Antonio Cromartie really tests the boundaries. It comes down to this. Do you believe he's fully recovered from injury? If so, he carries a first round grade. If not, he falls into the second. One factor that likely helps Cromartie's stature ... he gambled by declaring for the draft after his Junior season. Coming off a knee injury he had to know he would be dogged by scouts about his health. He'd also need to put on an excellent performance at the Combine. You simply don't make the decision to go Pro as a Junior unless you're confident you'll be taken in the first 50 picks. Cromartie has answered his critics thus far. Still, a knee injury can't be erased.

 

- Tye Hill - There's no question he's fast. The combine proved that which we already knew. But what else can he do? He got beat deep at the Senior Bowl due to bad reads. Will the menatl game match up with his incredible physical skills? If so he might be the best corner in the draft. If not he's simply a guy with track star speed trying to play in the NFL, which history has shown to be a short career.

 

- Jonathan Joseph - Played only 14 games at D-1 level after transferring from Junior College. He measured up well against tough competition in the SEC but the sample size is admittedly small. Joseph would be a much safer pick if there was more to go on, but similar to Youboty, he declared after his Junior year. Scouts say he has Pro Bowl ability but is raw. The NFL, and the unemployment line, are littered with guys fitting that description.

 

Other players who are all over the place in mock drafts:

 

DE Tamba Hali - Tweener type.

DT Gabe Watson

LB Kamerion Wimbley

LB Chad Greenway

 

In a draft with so many players rising and falling, you have to admit, there are precious few safe picks. GM's everywhere are likely losing sleep over this draft.

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Nice post Hound. I agree with pretty much everything you said. I think Im a little higher on Jonathan Joseph then you are and I think Tamba is just a DE at the pro level. It would be a huge mistake if some team drafted him as a rush 3-4 WLB. He could do so much more in a 4-3 scheme as an every down DE.

 

Again nice post, I think since it was so long most people will shy away from reading it and posting. But I rather see post like this then the short shits.

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Like many of you, I tend to view mock drafts more as entertainment than for informational purposes, however I have noticed that a comparison of multiple mock drafts by credible industry sources can identify which players are rising and falling. I started doing that this week and checked out close to 10 mocks from different draft sites.

 

Here's what I noticed:

 

The most consistent trend is that the Running Backs (Bush excluded) are falling. LenDale White's freefall is a bit expected based on his poor Pro Day and worse attitiude. But DeAngelo Williams also seems to have slipped. Few mock drafts have Williams going in the top 20 at this point, which is a bit surprising considering his solid combine and good character. The only RB who appears to have gained a bit is Laurence Maroney who is being mentioned for the Colts at the end of the first. Still I think this is a case of Maroney's skill set matching Indy well and draftniks overanalyzing the loss of Ed James. By simply grading the player, most sites don't assign a first round value on Maroney.

 

If there's one player nobody agrees on it's Jay Cutler. A few sources think he could go top 5. There are a couple more who think the Raiders may take him in the top 10 (methinks unlikely), then there are multiple teams in the 11-15 range who could arguably take him. He really is a bit of an X-Factor. Nobody knows where he'll end up. Personally I don't think he goes top 10. I do think he could slide all the way to Miami at 16. I can't see him getting past the Vikings at 17 but if they had to choose between he and Ernie Sims ... well I guess I could see him sliding further!

 

Cornerback ... land of the bust? GM's need to tread carefully at the CB slot this season. There isn't a single textbook shutdown corner in the draft. Usually there's at least one. Every one of the top candidates seems to carry some risk. Look no further than the lack of a concensus opinion on the prospect rankings. If none of the sources can decide who's best you have to consider that any early pick spent on a corner is a significant risk.

 

- Jimmy Williams carries the highest grade according to most sources but most felt, prior to his senior season, that he'd be a top 10 selection. He didn't quite fulfill that expectation. Getting kicked out of the ACC Championship game didn't help. Frank Coyle has Williams as the 3rd ranked CB in the draft, the worst I've see him ranked.

 

- Ashton Youboty ... some pub's have him going top 20, others have him mid second round. Youboty has fine measurables and likely won't dissapoint but I can't help but feel he's getting an inflated grade based on the relative success of recent Ohio State corners. Unlike guys like Chris Gamble, I don't see Youboty being able to contribute immediately. Remember, he skipped his senior season. Good prospect, but needs a year of seasoning.

 

- Antonio Cromartie really tests the boundaries. It comes down to this. Do you believe he's fully recovered from injury? If so, he carries a first round grade. If not, he falls into the second. One factor that likely helps Cromartie's stature ... he gambled by declaring for the draft after his Junior season. Coming off a knee injury he had to know he would be dogged by scouts about his health. He'd also need to put on an excellent performance at the Combine. You simply don't make the decision to go Pro as a Junior unless you're confident you'll be taken in the first 50 picks. Cromartie has answered his critics thus far. Still, a knee injury can't be erased.

 

- Tye Hill - There's no question he's fast. The combine proved that which we already knew. But what else can he do? He got beat deep at the Senior Bowl due to bad reads. Will the menatl game match up with his incredible physical skills? If so he might be the best corner in the draft. If not he's simply a guy with track star speed trying to play in the NFL, which history has shown to be a short career.

 

- Jonathan Joseph - Played only 14 games at D-1 level after transferring from Junior College. He measured up well against tough competition in the SEC but the sample size is admittedly small. Joseph would be a much safer pick if there was more to go on, but similar to Youboty, he declared after his Junior year. Scouts say he has Pro Bowl ability but is raw. The NFL, and the unemployment line, are littered with guys fitting that description.

 

Other players who are all over the place in mock drafts:

 

DE Tamba Hali - Tweener type.

DT Gabe Watson

LB Kamerion Wimbley

LB Chad Greenway

 

In a draft with so many players rising and falling, you have to admit, there are precious few safe picks. GM's everywhere are likely losing sleep over this draft.

 

 

thank you for the Info.

 

good reading

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Nice post Hound. I agree with pretty much everything you said. I think Im a little higher on Jonathan Joseph then you are and I think Tamba is just a DE at the pro level. It would be a huge mistake if some team drafted him as a rush 3-4 WLB. He could do so much more in a 4-3 scheme as an every down DE.

 

Again nice post, I think since it was so long most people will shy away from reading it and posting. But I rather see post like this then the short shits.

 

I don't know that I'm down on any of these cornerback prospects. I just feel that each of them carries a bit of a risk although for different reasons. Obviously not all of them will pan out but I have to admit, I'm scared at the prosepct of going corner in round 1 just becuase there's so little concensus at the position. Sometime before the draft I'll revisit this post and rank these DB's how I see 'em. I'm still not done researching them.

 

I think Hali is going to fall to the middle of the second round due to his tweener status.

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I don't know that I'm down on any of these cornerback prospects. I just feel that each of them carries a bit of a risk although for different reasons. Obviously not all of them will pan out but I have to admit, I'm scared at the prosepct of going corner in round 1 just becuase there's so little concensus at the position. Sometime before the draft I'll revisit this post and rank these DB's how I see 'em. I'm still not done researching them.

 

I think Hali is going to fall to the middle of the second round due to his tweener status.

 

 

I understand what you mean about going corner in round 1. Maybe Kelly Jennings is another guy you could inculde into your research.

 

Well friendly bet says Hali is gone in the early 2nd (say with in first 10 picks) to a 4-3 team as a DE.

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Cornerback ... land of the bust? GM's need to tread carefully at the CB slot this season. There isn't a single textbook shutdown corner in the draft. Usually there's at least one. Every one of the top candidates seems to carry some risk. Look no further than the lack of a concensus opinion on the prospect rankings. If none of the sources can decide who's best you have to consider that any early pick spent on a corner is a significant risk.

 

That's why I sincerely hope the Giants don't take a CB in the first round.

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I agree with most of your assessment. I've seen the same things regarding Jimmy Williams, and from what I can gather, teams aren't high on the mental aspects of his game. I've seen him play in about 4 or 5 games last year, and he didn't impress me to the point of being a top 10 or 15 pick.

 

Youboty, pretty much like you said, is kind of a unique prospect. He's the type of player who probably would have benefited from 1 more year, but he certainly has all the tools. Youboty had a very good sophomore season, but suffered a hip pointer in the middle of the season last year, and I believe that affected his play.

 

Tye Hill, it's funny, he was beaten in the Senior Bowl by Moss, but there's clip of when they played during the season of a similar play where Hill defended Moss extremely well. I don't think Hill will fall to the #25 spot, but if he does, I wouldn't complain if we selected him. http://clemsontigers.cstv.com/sports/m-foo.../071205aaa.html

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From what I've read on Hill's subpar Senior Bowl performance, it was his reads that got him in trouble, not his lack of athleticism. He apparently tried to jump a couple of routes and simply guessed wrong. Maybe it was a case of a player being too aggressive trying to make a big play on the big stage. All reports seem to indicate that he had a solid week of practices in Mobile so it's not like he was in over his head.

 

Like I said, I don't think anybody questions his skill set, but if he has the cranial capacities of a Frank Walker then it might not matter!

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From what I've read on Hill's subpar Senior Bowl performance, it was his reads that got him in trouble, not his lack of athleticism. He apparently tried to jump a couple of routes and simply guessed wrong. Maybe it was a case of a player being too aggressive trying to make a big play on the big stage. All reports seem to indicate that he had a solid week of practices in Mobile so it's not like he was in over his head.

 

Like I said, I don't think anybody questions his skill set, but if he has the cranial capacities of a Frank Walker then it might not matter!

 

I know, and I watched most of the Senior Bowl, and from what I can gather, it doesn't exactly favor CB's or LB's, because the defenses are extremely vanella, and they are restricted to do only so much. I generally think that most scouts sold more on the practices during the week, rather than the actual game, unless their overall play is really lousy.

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You could also argue the offenses are scaled back too. It's not like they can put in real complex stuff when they've got 30 guys who have never worked together and less than two weeks of practice.

 

I do think players can make a name for themselves in the practices too but neither side has a major advantage on game day.

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IMO, for the most part, the offensive side of the ball has a slight advantage during the Senior Bowl, because CB's have to play 7 yards off the ball and can't press, and the linebackers can't blitz. The offenses might be scaled back, but a lot of the aggressiveness gets taken away from the defensive back 7.

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IMO, for the most part, the offensive side of the ball has a slight advantage during the Senior Bowl, because CB's have to play 7 yards off the ball and can't press, and the linebackers can't blitz. The offenses might be scaled back, but a lot of the aggressiveness gets taken away from the defensive back 7.

 

Yeah, the Quarterbacks usually face minimal pressure allowing the WR more time to get open so it's really hard as a CB when they have to play zone coverage most of the time knowing they can't jam up a WR at the line and that the QB is going to have plenty of time to get the ball off. Even the best CB's can't cover forever.

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How about chad jackson from florida, WR, he won me over at the combine i think hell be a beast!

 

On a similar note, Vernon Davis has been a huge climber since Mock Drafts first started. Early on he was projected to be a mid round pick but since the combine he has sky rocketed. I guess a 4.38 for a 240 lb man who is athletic and has good hands will do that. There has never been a TE in the NFL with draft with better workout numbers to go with a dominating collegiate career. Right now he's currently projected to be a pick 6-9, but I wouldnt be suprised if he somehow sneaks his way into the top 5 somehow. This guys got "gamebreaker" written all over him.

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Like many of you, I tend to view mock drafts more as entertainment than for informational purposes, however I have noticed that a comparison of multiple mock drafts by credible industry sources can identify which players are rising and falling. I started doing that this week and checked out close to 10 mocks from different draft sites.

 

Here's what I noticed:

 

The most consistent trend is that the Running Backs (Bush excluded) are falling. LenDale White's freefall is a bit expected based on his poor Pro Day and worse attitiude. But DeAngelo Williams also seems to have slipped. Few mock drafts have Williams going in the top 20 at this point, which is a bit surprising considering his solid combine and good character. The only RB who appears to have gained a bit is Laurence Maroney who is being mentioned for the Colts at the end of the first. Still I think this is a case of Maroney's skill set matching Indy well and draftniks overanalyzing the loss of Ed James. By simply grading the player, most sites don't assign a first round value on Maroney.

 

If there's one player nobody agrees on it's Jay Cutler. A few sources think he could go top 5. There are a couple more who think the Raiders may take him in the top 10 (methinks unlikely), then there are multiple teams in the 11-15 range who could arguably take him. He really is a bit of an X-Factor. Nobody knows where he'll end up. Personally I don't think he goes top 10. I do think he could slide all the way to Miami at 16. I can't see him getting past the Vikings at 17 but if they had to choose between he and Ernie Sims ... well I guess I could see him sliding further!

 

Cornerback ... land of the bust? GM's need to tread carefully at the CB slot this season. There isn't a single textbook shutdown corner in the draft. Usually there's at least one. Every one of the top candidates seems to carry some risk. Look no further than the lack of a concensus opinion on the prospect rankings. If none of the sources can decide who's best you have to consider that any early pick spent on a corner is a significant risk.

 

- Jimmy Williams carries the highest grade according to most sources but most felt, prior to his senior season, that he'd be a top 10 selection. He didn't quite fulfill that expectation. Getting kicked out of the ACC Championship game didn't help. Frank Coyle has Williams as the 3rd ranked CB in the draft, the worst I've see him ranked.

 

- Ashton Youboty ... some pub's have him going top 20, others have him mid second round. Youboty has fine measurables and likely won't dissapoint but I can't help but feel he's getting an inflated grade based on the relative success of recent Ohio State corners. Unlike guys like Chris Gamble, I don't see Youboty being able to contribute immediately. Remember, he skipped his senior season. Good prospect, but needs a year of seasoning.

 

- Antonio Cromartie really tests the boundaries. It comes down to this. Do you believe he's fully recovered from injury? If so, he carries a first round grade. If not, he falls into the second. One factor that likely helps Cromartie's stature ... he gambled by declaring for the draft after his Junior season. Coming off a knee injury he had to know he would be dogged by scouts about his health. He'd also need to put on an excellent performance at the Combine. You simply don't make the decision to go Pro as a Junior unless you're confident you'll be taken in the first 50 picks. Cromartie has answered his critics thus far. Still, a knee injury can't be erased.

 

- Tye Hill - There's no question he's fast. The combine proved that which we already knew. But what else can he do? He got beat deep at the Senior Bowl due to bad reads. Will the menatl game match up with his incredible physical skills? If so he might be the best corner in the draft. If not he's simply a guy with track star speed trying to play in the NFL, which history has shown to be a short career.

 

- Jonathan Joseph - Played only 14 games at D-1 level after transferring from Junior College. He measured up well against tough competition in the SEC but the sample size is admittedly small. Joseph would be a much safer pick if there was more to go on, but similar to Youboty, he declared after his Junior year. Scouts say he has Pro Bowl ability but is raw. The NFL, and the unemployment line, are littered with guys fitting that description.

 

Other players who are all over the place in mock drafts:

 

DE Tamba Hali - Tweener type.

DT Gabe Watson

LB Kamerion Wimbley

LB Chad Greenway

 

In a draft with so many players rising and falling, you have to admit, there are precious few safe picks. GM's everywhere are likely losing sleep over this draft.

damn hound good post..

 

 

90% of all mocks I see hve us taking ryan what do you think?

 

DeMeco Ryans LB 6’1 229 Alabama

By: Robert Davis

 

You will not find a player that has more off the field accolades than DeMeco Ryans. He has racked up just about every academic honor a player can receive. All Academic SEC, Academic All American, and even the Arthur Ashe sports scholar award. Ryans does not just get after it in the classroom, he is one of the best college linebackers in the country. He played as a true freshman, but did not really have a big impact, finishing the 2002 season with 27 tackles in a reserve role. As a sophomore though, he made every opposing coach take note of where he was at. He finished the season with 126 tackles, with 8.5 of them for loss. His numbers dipped a bit during his junior campaign, but still had a very good year with 78 tackles, seven of them for loss. Ryans redeemed himself as a senior, having his best season and earning numerous All American honors for his success. The SEC Defensive Player of the Year finished the season with 76 tackles, 12 for loss, five sacks, and an interception.

 

Ryans is a very good all around talent at linebacker. His strength is reacting to plays in front of him and closing on the ball. DeMeco has excellent read and react skills. He can see the play develop and close on the ball carrier before the play gets going. He does not let up anywhere on the field and goes full tilt at all times. The intelligence he has in the classroom carries over to the football field.

 

In order for him to make his presence felt at the next level, Ryans is going to have to pack on some weight. Checking in at 229 at the Senior Bowl, Ryans does not have the bulk or strength to hold up at the point against NFL blockers. He also lacks blazing speed to make up for any size issue he may have.

 

Ryans has been a big part of Alabama’s return to their winning ways this season, and it has helped him improve his draft stock. He definitely has the talent to play at the next level as long as he can bulk up a bit to match up better. He will not wow you with his physical tools, but he makes plays. He should hear his name called in the Top 50, with a good shot at landing in the first round.

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damn hound good post..

90% of all mocks I see hve us taking ryan what do you think?

 

 

I'd love to see us take Ryans. I prefer him over Carpenter. I really don't think Greenway will fall all the way to 25 but if he did it would be a real tough call between the two. Greenway is the higher rated prospect and deserves to be but Ryans may actually be a better fit for our team. I wouldn't be disappointed with either pick. I won't be upset if we get Carpenter either unless we take him over Ryans or Greenway.

 

As for most mocks having us taking Ryans .... loot at that date of this thread:

 

Hound pats his back!

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