jambrosio

not worried about our offense, it's our defense...

my dad's response to this article was just "oh well"... i found that amusing

buehrle off the market. 4 years, 50 million

if posada can't catch mussina, i dont think barrett can, that's probably the biggest reason why

i'd laugh if he tried to punch maddux

terms undisclosed. 2 down, 6 to go

personally, i dont know if bernie belongs in monument park. yes he had a great steady career, but nothing spectacular. no seasons ever stood out as seasons that defined him. he was a hard worker and a good role model, but bernie isn't going to leave an impression in the history of baseball like the rest of the players in monument park, at least in my opinion.

charges got dropped already

yea eric moulds wasnt that good for him and his running game got worse.

so whats your point? how does that reflect on palmer?

and it was the gameplan that improved this year to help carr, his mechanics have never really been off

yes he took a step forward this year when palmer was gone

or maybe because he got a respectable #2 reciever and tight end in eric moulds and owen daniels

no. dont tell me you think Carr is good.

i do think carr is good. carr has taken a historic amount of sacks because he has no o-line. he's never had a very good tight end, he's never had a consistent running game and he's never had a receiever other than andre johnson. their gameplan has been awful, and he finally took a step forward this year, the end of the season not withstanding. give him a line and another weapon and you'll see how he improves

he fucked up David Carr

you're joking right?

also, a good post that was on bbi regarding eli and the gameplan:

So I started digging into the Eli situation. Before you read on, be forewarned: this was pretty labor intensive, and I had to try to select a path of logic that I had time to work through. There are at least 100 more details I'd like to understand, but have focused the train of thought on the data I found most compelling.

 

A few weeks ago, I showed how the difference in passer rating and completion % between Eli and, for instance, Jeff Garcia, could be completely explained by the distribution of throws. With a high % of throws going to Westbrook and Smith on short throws, the numbers for those QBs look better than Eli's even though only Smith performs better than his Giant counterpart, Shockey, in terms of the % of balls thrown his way that he actually catches.

 

For this deep dive, I decided to drill into Eli vs Brady. The logic here is that the two run offenses that are similar and, therefore more comparable...or do they?

 

The first thing that jumped out to me as odd were their comparable splits. I'll highlight a few:

 

Brady

CAT Att Comp Pct Passer Rating TD INT TD% INT %

OWN 1-20 - BY YARD LINE 57 37 64.9 77.3 0 1 0.0% 1.8%

OWN 21-50 - BY YARD LINE 226 150 66.4 81.4 2 7 0.9% 3.1%

OPP 49-20 - BY YARD LINE 159 91 57.2 74.2 4 4 2.5% 2.5%

OPP 19-1 - BY YARD LINE 74 41 55.4 103.9 18 0 24.3% 0.0%

 

 

Manning

CAT Att Comp Pct Passer Rating TD INT TD% INT %

OWN 1-20 - BY YARD LINE 65 31 47.7 36.8 0 4 0.0% 6.2%

OWN 21-50 - BY YARD LINE 231 138 59.7 62.7 2 11 0.9% 4.8%

OPP 49-20 - BY YARD LINE 172 103 59.9 87.2 7 3 4.1% 1.7%

OPP 19-1 - BY YARD LINE 54 29 53.7 101.1 15 0 27.8% 0.0%

 

Notice that Manning's numbers are actually better than Brady's on the opponents' end of the field. He has better TD numbers and fewer interceptions in real and percentage terms. These numbers, by the way, compare very competitively with Payton's.

 

Where Eli is getting himself and the team into trouble seems to be on his end of the field...and that's where the real work started.

 

I went through every play-by-play of every game in 2006, and cataloged his interceptions. A pattern started to emerge. Time and time again...the int's came on deep throws in the first 30 yards of the field (a point of note, I think the play by plays define a deep throw as any throw over 20 yards). Not all of them, mind you, but the lion's share. The splits hide this, because they count the 21-50 yard lines as one group. Really, most of them came between the goal line and the 30 yard line.

 

That seemed odd to me. My first reaction was "why do they have Eli throwing so many deep passes from so far in their end of the field". I was never really able to answer that question, as there was no clear pattern. The deep throws came on any down, and in many situations (as we often lamented as fans...often making no sense strategically). So then my thought was..."maybe I'm nuts and every team does this". So I pulled a sample of games from Eli and Tom Brady and cataloged every deep pass from the Giants and Pats end of the field, respectively. I didn't have time to catalogue 100% in this regard, so stopped when I had a large enough sample to be relevant. The sample was intentionally biased for when Toomer and Luke were healthy. I did some further analysis after they went down, but this thread is long enough without opening that can of worms.

 

This was the distribution of deep passes thrown from their side of the field.

 

Brady Eli Manning

Deep Passes Percent Deep Passes Percent

0-9 Yards 2 7.1% 2 7.7%

10-19 Yards 1 3.6% 4 15.4%

20-29 Yards 4 14.3% 5 19.2%

30-39 Yards 13 46.4% 8 30.8%

40-49 Yards 8 28.6% 7 26.9%

 

 

A couple of things jumped out: First, Brady makes his money between the 30 and 50. That's where the vast majority (75%) of the deep throws from his end of the field come from. It also pointed out what I would have expected - throws between the goalline and the 30 are kept to short throws, with only an occasional deep ball. Once they get some breathing room, they take some shots to shift field position and get in scoring position. Second: Contrast that with Eli, where 45% come from between the goal line and the 30. The number of deep throws was almost identical in this sample.

 

This got even worse after Luke amd Toomer went down, especially before they readjusted the game plan going into the Cowboys game.

 

It seems odd to me that, as a gameplan, you would have a QB whose accuracy has come under fire, throw low % passes to low % receivers from low % situations: i.e., deep within Giants' territory...and we wonder why there were so many three and outs and ints.

 

While there are endless details that set up the situations behind all of the throws behind these numbers, it's hard to ignore the patterns that emerge.

 

It is also noteworthy that Eli is solid on the opponents' end of the field when compared with both Payton and Brady. This is especially noteworthy considering that the red zone running games for both New England and Indy were far stronger than was the case for New York.

 

In summary, while Eli has some work to do on his game, it appears (as we suspected) the gameplan may have as much to do with the problem as Eli.

ITs a good thing they did not look for a young QB coach out of the college ranks with some new innovative ideas, we should always stick with some old dude who has had limited success and experience with our DH of a HC.

i dont think a qb coach needs to be innovative. just get his mechanics straightened out and teach him how to read defenses properly. the job of coaching a qb won't change much, it's never going to become all that different than it was 20 years ago.

Ok, I see what you're saying. It's just how he handle Tim Couch always left a bad impression about Chris Palmer.

well he was the head coach there, so he might not have had as much impression as we think. couch was also hurt a lot in cleveland, so that had an effect on his pay

I only see 2 'good' QB in that list. and I'm giving Mark brunell the benefit of the doubt.

i'm assuming you're talking about moon and brunell. bledsoe in new england wasn't shabby, especially before all of his injuries. if carr ever had a consistent o-line, or running game, he'd be a great qb. and i'm not saying that romo is god, but he showed a hell of a lot of promise for an undrafted free agent

Houston Oilers 1990-92 (Warren Moon) , New England Patriots 1993-96 (Drew Bledsoe), Jacksonville Jaguars 1997-98 (Mark Brunell) , Cleveland Browns 1999-2000 (Tim Couch) , Houston Texans 2001-05 (David Carr) , joined Cowboys in 2006 (Tony Romo) .

he's been around some pretty good qbs...

Two words: Tim Couch.

tim couch also never could stay healthy and had awful recievers and running game

I saw some guy say this on BBI but is there any validity to this?

eric said that palmer is from brewster, ny, where hte guy said he heard it, but i dont' see anybody making stories up about palmer hardware, i believe it

Chris Palmer, quarterbacks; born: September 23, 1949, Brewster, N.Y. Quarterback Southern Connecticut State 1968-1971. No pro playing experience. College coach: Connecticut 1972-74, Lehigh 1975, Colgate 1976-1982, New Haven 1986-87 (head coach), Boston 1988-89 (head coach). Pro coach: Montreal Concordes (CFL) 1983, New Jersey Generals (USFL) 1984-85, Houston Oilers 1990-92, New England Patriots 1993-96, Jacksonville Jaguars 1997-98, Cleveland Browns 1999-2000 (head coach), Houston Texans 2001-05, joined Cowboys in 2006.

he's got a new qb coach

if jerome bettis could start in this league, so can brandon jacobs

i orignally thought no. but then i realized, who else this year would we have hired? cowher and bellichick are out. college coach? no thanks. we had no choice this year. our only option was to fix our playcalling and our defensive schemes. that was our big problem last year. our offense will play off of gilbride's calls, which they seem to like, and hopefully we can get a dc that our defense will play under and will take pressure off coughlin for the players.

likewise vs. the pats. free up mr. bellichick for us