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OC prediction for next year.


BlueInCanada
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A bit long of a read I know, but stay with me here, TL;DR prediction near the bottom for you lazy fucks;

71694569.jpg

I know not having Barkley or a functioning Oline for the first few weeks of the season was a big disadvantage for this team, however that does not excuse Garrett for the god awful job he has done using the talent to make the offense competitive.

We went from the 19th ranked offense with Pat, to the 31st ranked under Garrett with arguably the exact same skill position players, and a better playing Oline.

Obviously Garrett was a Mara hire, I'm sure Judge liked Garrett as well but I'm willing to bet that if the Cowboys didn't wait so long to fire Garrett and Judge didn't have a stellar interview, Jason G would be the HC of the Giants right now.

With that being said, he's done a piss poor job at calling plays this year, and it's evident in most of the games we've played. Now there's been some games (Philly) and drives that he looked great, getting guys into the mix, or trickery to keep teams off balance. However where he's done the most harm? Is with Jones.

Patty O' Shoomer

Shurmur ran that west coast style offense, much like what he learned under Andy Reid with the Eagles, as well as taking concepts from Norv Turners vertical passing scheme.

He more often used three WR sets to spread out the defense, and ran a combination of quick slant and crossing routs by the 3rd WR and TE (west coast), as well as deep combination routes by the two WRs on the far side (Turners passing schemes), this caused defenses to either have to cover the quick dump off and risk getting beat deep, or cover deep and risk getting chunked by the underneath routes, or quick runs out of shotgun.

Why did this worth so well with the Giants? Because of the personnel and playing to the strengths of each player. OBJ and Barkley excelled at the quick underneath crossing routes, and slant routes in the west coast system because they could both take a simple pass and turn it into a 50 yard TD run. Shepard in combination with OBJ, and Engram would run the vertical combinations crossing DBs faces making them have to decide on who to cover. This played well to Engrams straight line speed (once again had a career year under Shurmur) as well as Shepards route running ability on comeback and deep outs.

This was all made possible as well by Barkley, the defense had to account for Barkley not only as a RB but as a slot WR due to his pass catching ability. This would cause mismatches in the front 7, if the defense had an extra LB? Make Barkley split out side or run a route out of the backfield the LB couldn't keep up with. They bring in an extra DB to cover Barkley? Audible into a running play and have Ellison pull and take out the DB to open up a running lane for Barkley. This worked for guys like Eli and then Jones, as Eli could read defenses and find the quick underneath stuff (Barkley was one of his favorite targets) and Jones seen the deep combination routes and would put the ball where only the WRs could get it.

This offense suit what the Giants had at the skill positions and the biggest weakness of those two years were the Oline, but enough living in the past.

The Clapper

This brings me to the point about Garrett, we finally have the Oline playing at an NFL level, it might not be all the time, but enough to get the job done and certainly not be the 31st ranked offense in the NFL.

Why do I think it's happening? Two reasons 1) Garrett has never had a pass heavy concept and relies on what he learned from Saban in Miami, the run sets up the pass to beat coverages and 2 ) Garrett's has a hard times in the past scheming to a players strengths, instead just relying on the players natural ability to make plays.

With the first point, under Garrett the Cowboys ranked top 5 in offense for two of his four years as OC, and above average the other years, how did he get there? As Giants fan we know what he did. He ran the ball, A LOT, and then would either play action Owens on a deep route, or send Witten down the middle running the seam.

What's the difference here then? Why can't we do the same? Because we don't have a hall of fame TE and WR he can just chuck the ball up to and expect to make a catch.

Garrett needs his players to make plays for his system to work since he doesn't run heavy combination routes or mesh/misdirection.

This is currently hurting Jones as we do not have the talent around him to make the system work. He has to be the one to make the plays to make the throws and he isnt the QB who can do that all himself, very very few in the NFL are.

Jones can't just throw the ball up because guys like Slayton/Tate/Shepard won win the battles, or get open in time. He needs a scheme that allows Slayton to get separation (what we seen with Shurmur) he needs a scheme that lets Shepard run his routes and create room, but this isnt what Garrett does.

I hope by now you can understand my line of thinking. Shurmur and coaches like Graham scheme to their teams strengths, where as Garrett runs a scheme and trys to find talent to play in it.

Now time for my big preDICKtion;

Freddie Kitchens is the OC next year.

Two reasons I believe this 1) He was a Judge hire and has worked with Judge in the past and 2) He was taught (and ran a style with the Browns) by Arians, Saban, Croom (out of Mississippi), Wisenhunt. Outside of Saban they all have a thing in common. They are pass heavy west coast/"Air Coryell" coaches.

When The Hue Jackson experiment failed with the Browns, Kitchens stepped in as OC, and the results were immediate. He brought a combination of run and shoot on the team, and allowed Baker to take a big step forward that year. 

Why did his HC run fail? Because he isnt a HC, but he is an OC.

This would potentially benefit the Giants simply from the fact that with the Browns, he would scheme for the weapons he had, not the weapons he wanted (like Garrett).

Chubb, Landry all seen mark improvements while Kitchen called the plays, and went on a 5-3 run after Jackson was fired. Despite the poor record the offense improved in 2019 under Kitchens, however the cracks of him trying to be both an OC and HC started to show.

I think with this year as the TEs coach, when Garrett leaves in the offseason, Kitchens will be considered for the OC spot.

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47 minutes ago, boohyah said:

I don't think anyone will hire Garrett next year. He'll be back, but I do think you are correct that Kitchens is in the back pocket when Garrett leaves.

 

Let him be.   You always thrust your opinion. :rolleyes:

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13 minutes ago, Nas said:

Let him be.   You always thrust your opinion. :rolleyes:

I'm up for a little thrusting if you know what I mean.

Seriously doe I like discussion here, outside of Herc I don't think I've ever gotten into it with anyone. 

1 hour ago, boohyah said:

I don't think anyone will hire Garrett next year. He'll be back, but I do think you are correct that Kitchens is in the back pocket when Garrett leaves.

 

Could be I just think Garrett has over stayed him welcome come year end, he was hired to help Judge with learning the HC job and to help install and scheme.

Judge has excelled as a HC the offensive scheme has not.

 

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2 minutes ago, boohyah said:

Look, If BIC has an opinion and I disagree, I'll say it. In fairness, he keeps this section alive.

That's as scary as it is sincere. 

P and R is Pdoub and everyone's territory and I'm awful at keeping up with politics lol 

I can't get enough of Giants football though.

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14 minutes ago, Pdouble said:

When Garrett and Kitchens both were hired, my thinking was Kitchens was kind of the OC in waiting, with the assumption being Garrett leaving to head coach a team.  
 

I’m on board with Kitchens because the system will probably remain the same which is good. 

Yeah I never looked at it that way.

Kitchens is obviously a Judge guy, Garrett has been a hell of a sport through the whole thing probably knowing he isn't long term here.

But your right if Garrett comes back for another year hopefully Kitchens get a co OC spot next year.

 

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1 minute ago, BlueInCanada said:

That's as scary as it is sincere. 

P and R is Pdoub and everyone's territory and I'm awful at keeping up with politics lol 

I can't get enough of Giants football though.

Hey, I'm not a fan of some of your topics or your opinions, but at least you care.  We can get behind that.

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2 minutes ago, boohyah said:

Hey, I'm not a fan of some of your topics or your opinions, but at least you care.  We can get behind that.

Just call me the fox news of sportswrath. 

And I do come off as strong sometimes but I think as you said I just want more discussion on here.

Hell I've made topics where ever last poster disagrees with me but oh well atleast it helps people talk about Giants football.

Plus I may learn a thing or too about soemthing.

 

 

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Just now, BlueInCanada said:

Just call me the fox news of sportswrath. 

And I do come off as strong sometimes but I think as you said I just want more discussion on here.

Hell I've made topics where ever last poster disagrees with me but oh well atleast it helps people talk about Giants football.

 

And with that, Canadian and American tensions have thawed.

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1 minute ago, boohyah said:

And with that, Canadian and American tensions have thawed.

Bro you don't know how bad I want the border to open up.

I got friends in Minnesota I haven't seen since last year!

Our countries are two bastard siblings of the British colonies and we ride and die together to quote the best movie of 2020 Bad Boys for life.

2020 be a fucked up year yo.

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25 minutes ago, boohyah said:

Look, If BIC has an opinion and I disagree, I'll say it. In fairness, he keeps this section alive.

I’m sorry is there a manual for how I should respond so that I don’t hurt your feelings?

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12 hours ago, boohyah said:

And with that, Canadian and American tensions have thawed.

Fuck that. New Hampshire maple syrup smokes the shit out of that lame-assed Canadian stuff, motherfuckers have NO business even calling that syrup. 

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14 hours ago, BlueInCanada said:

A bit long of a read I know, but stay with me here, TL;DR prediction near the bottom for you lazy fucks;

71694569.jpg

I know not having Barkley or a functioning Oline for the first few weeks of the season was a big disadvantage for this team, however that does not excuse Garrett for the god awful job he has done using the talent to make the offense competitive.

We went from the 19th ranked offense with Pat, to the 31st ranked under Garrett with arguably the exact same skill position players, and a better playing Oline.

Obviously Garrett was a Mara hire, I'm sure Judge liked Garrett as well but I'm willing to bet that if the Cowboys didn't wait so long to fire Garrett and Judge didn't have a stellar interview, Jason G would be the HC of the Giants right now.

With that being said, he's done a piss poor job at calling plays this year, and it's evident in most of the games we've played. Now there's been some games (Philly) and drives that he looked great, getting guys into the mix, or trickery to keep teams off balance. However where he's done the most harm? Is with Jones.

Patty O' Shoomer

Shurmur ran that west coast style offense, much like what he learned under Andy Reid with the Eagles, as well as taking concepts from Norv Turners vertical passing scheme.

He more often used three WR sets to spread out the defense, and ran a combination of quick slant and crossing routs by the 3rd WR and TE (west coast), as well as deep combination routes by the two WRs on the far side (Turners passing schemes), this caused defenses to either have to cover the quick dump off and risk getting beat deep, or cover deep and risk getting chunked by the underneath routes, or quick runs out of shotgun.

Why did this worth so well with the Giants? Because of the personnel and playing to the strengths of each player. OBJ and Barkley excelled at the quick underneath crossing routes, and slant routes in the west coast system because they could both take a simple pass and turn it into a 50 yard TD run. Shepard in combination with OBJ, and Engram would run the vertical combinations crossing DBs faces making them have to decide on who to cover. This played well to Engrams straight line speed (once again had a career year under Shurmur) as well as Shepards route running ability on comeback and deep outs.

This was all made possible as well by Barkley, the defense had to account for Barkley not only as a RB but as a slot WR due to his pass catching ability. This would cause mismatches in the front 7, if the defense had an extra LB? Make Barkley split out side or run a route out of the backfield the LB couldn't keep up with. They bring in an extra DB to cover Barkley? Audible into a running play and have Ellison pull and take out the DB to open up a running lane for Barkley. This worked for guys like Eli and then Jones, as Eli could read defenses and find the quick underneath stuff (Barkley was one of his favorite targets) and Jones seen the deep combination routes and would put the ball where only the WRs could get it.

This offense suit what the Giants had at the skill positions and the biggest weakness of those two years were the Oline, but enough living in the past.

The Clapper

This brings me to the point about Garrett, we finally have the Oline playing at an NFL level, it might not be all the time, but enough to get the job done and certainly not be the 31st ranked offense in the NFL.

Why do I think it's happening? Two reasons 1) Garrett has never had a pass heavy concept and relies on what he learned from Saban in Miami, the run sets up the pass to beat coverages and 2 ) Garrett's has a hard times in the past scheming to a players strengths, instead just relying on the players natural ability to make plays.

With the first point, under Garrett the Cowboys ranked top 5 in offense for two of his four years as OC, and above average the other years, how did he get there? As Giants fan we know what he did. He ran the ball, A LOT, and then would either play action Owens on a deep route, or send Witten down the middle running the seam.

What's the difference here then? Why can't we do the same? Because we don't have a hall of fame TE and WR he can just chuck the ball up to and expect to make a catch.

Garrett needs his players to make plays for his system to work since he doesn't run heavy combination routes or mesh/misdirection.

This is currently hurting Jones as we do not have the talent around him to make the system work. He has to be the one to make the plays to make the throws and he isnt the QB who can do that all himself, very very few in the NFL are.

Jones can't just throw the ball up because guys like Slayton/Tate/Shepard won win the battles, or get open in time. He needs a scheme that allows Slayton to get separation (what we seen with Shurmur) he needs a scheme that lets Shepard run his routes and create room, but this isnt what Garrett does.

I hope by now you can understand my line of thinking. Shurmur and coaches like Graham scheme to their teams strengths, where as Garrett runs a scheme and trys to find talent to play in it.

Now time for my big preDICKtion;

Freddie Kitchens is the OC next year.

Two reasons I believe this 1) He was a Judge hire and has worked with Judge in the past and 2) He was taught (and ran a style with the Browns) by Arians, Saban, Croom (out of Mississippi), Wisenhunt. Outside of Saban they all have a thing in common. They are pass heavy west coast/"Air Coryell" coaches.

When The Hue Jackson experiment failed with the Browns, Kitchens stepped in as OC, and the results were immediate. He brought a combination of run and shoot on the team, and allowed Baker to take a big step forward that year. 

Why did his HC run fail? Because he isnt a HC, but he is an OC.

This would potentially benefit the Giants simply from the fact that with the Browns, he would scheme for the weapons he had, not the weapons he wanted (like Garrett).

Chubb, Landry all seen mark improvements while Kitchen called the plays, and went on a 5-3 run after Jackson was fired. Despite the poor record the offense improved in 2019 under Kitchens, however the cracks of him trying to be both an OC and HC started to show.

I think with this year as the TEs coach, when Garrett leaves in the offseason, Kitchens will be considered for the OC spot.

I pretty much agree with all of this, except for Shurmur changing his scheme to fit his players' stengths. Engram had some ok years but that was mostly because he would take a 5-yard in-route to the house; guy was built for the seam but everything he ran was 3-8 yards from the LOS... or he'd be left in to block. I just think the personnel we have runs a West Coast scheme better. 

Garrett, to his credit, has run some kooky screens, fakes, and RPOs that have masked some early struggles with the offense, but his route combinations are often pretty lame. I'm ok moving on from him next year, but I do wonder how another new OC might affect Jones' progress.

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I could see the Giants moving in a different direction at OC.

However, I think the biggest problem with the offense is turnovers.   I'm saying this based on the assumption that the Cards game was an aberration with respect to the offensive line.

I'd give Garrett one more year.... that provides another year of continuity with a young QB on a young offense.   If Barkley comes back at even 95% of form, then you have a QB who is a threat to run, and a running back who is a pass catching threat.   

If the offensive line continues to solidify, and if the Giants find another playmaker at WR, then Garrett has no excuse if the Giants aren't a Top 10 offense next season.

And I think the same for Jones.... I love his wheels, and he has terrific touch on his passes.   However, if next year, the turnovers don't dramatically decrease, he'd better have absolutely sick yards and TDs as compensation, or else the Giants need to consider other QB options.    

Colt McCoy proved this Giants team can win games as long as the QB does not self destruct.

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