mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I've been saying he has been the best player all along for the Giants, I don't know why you got all on about ESPN and other FOX sources. Once again I dont see what's so hard to understand about the Giants drafting a player that was their highest rated on the board. I've been saying he's not the best player available. Like I said, I don't see what's so hard to understand that they could have drafted him lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osi724dasack Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I'm a statistician. I can tell you're not good with math (or facts). And I can tell that you dont know much about football! You should stick to "Politics and Religion" and let the big boys talk sports! Lol I'm half kidding, but seriously your gonna feel like an idiot in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osi724dasack Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Idk why anyone would cry about this pick. Jerry Reese is an expert. You are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 And I can tell that you dont know much about football! You should stick to "Politics and Religion" and let the big boys talk sports! Lol I'm half kidding, but seriously your gonna feel like an idiot in time. You're banking on 28 guys not having a better career than Wilson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 Like I said, I don't see what's so hard to understand that they could have drafted him lower. Like I said, I still dont see why you find it so hard to believe the Giants got the player that they wanted. And this "they could of drafted him lower" for all we know some team picked him before the Giants picked again, then this player that the Giants had rated number one on their board that they passed over because of giving into peer pressure from ESPN mock draft. I'm starting to think you just like to argue for the sake of arguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Idk why anyone would cry about this pick. Jerry Reese is an expert. You are not. Really, he's never made a bad pick? Every player he's picked has worked out? haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osi724dasack Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 You want FACTS?? Fact: Every time the Giants have picked a player I liked, that player has turned into a great player. Fact: I'm always right when it comes to football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osi724dasack Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Really, he's never made a bad pick? Every player he's picked has worked out? haha. Much better track record then most. And he's never made a bad 1st round pick! FACT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Like I said, I still dont see why you find it so hard to believe the Giants got the player that they wanted. And this "they could of drafted him lower" for all we know some team picked him before the Giants picked again, then this player that the Giants had rated number one on their board that they passed over because of giving into peer pressure from ESPN mock draft. I'm starting to think you just like to argue for the sake of arguing. We're saying two different things. I'm not debating Reese got the guy he wanted. Sure, based on the grades, and the historical correlation between grade and pick order, we likely could have gotten him - nothing is a sure thing, but the high probability (empirically proven) was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 We're saying two different things. I'm not debating Reese got the guy he wanted. Sure, based on the grades, and the historical correlation between grade and pick order, we likely could have gotten him - nothing is a sure thing, but the high probability (empirically proven) was there. High probability? Can you link your sources or "statisitcal" data showing this high probability of Wilson being there at the 63 rd pick in the draft for the Giants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 You want FACTS?? Fact: Every time the Giants have picked a player I liked, that player has turned into a great player. Fact: I'm always right when it comes to football. Haha.... ok ok. It's been fun sparring with you this evening, but you did give me a genuine smile with this. Honestly guys, to sum it up - I hope I'm wrong, and that this conversation is moot. It's probably silly to argue because I think he will be a good player (I just would have liked him and some extra draft picks via trading down). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 High probability? Can you link your sources or "statisitcal" data showing this high probability of Wilson being there at the 63 rd pick in the draft for the Giants? Yeah, the correlation between grades and draft order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 Yeah, the correlation between grades and draft order. Can you link what sites you have been using? Or where you have gotten this statistical data? Or have you just been pulling numbers out of your ass? Not to mention you take no account in for the probability of busts or late round sleepers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Can you link what sites you have been using? Or where you have gotten this statistical data? Or have you just been pulling numbers out of your ass? Not to mention you take no account in for the probability of busts or late round sleepers. I just said I calculated the correlation from ESPN: Here is the raw data 1 Andrew Luck QB Colts 99 2 Robert Griffin III QB Redskins 97 3 Trent Richardson RB Browns 97 4 Matt Kalil OT Vikings 96 5 Justin Blackmon WR Jaguars 95 6 Morris Claiborne DB Cowboys 97 7 Mark Barron S Buccaneers 95 8 Ryan Tannehill QB Dolphins 94 9 Luke Kuechly ILB Panthers 96 10 Stephon Gilmore DB Bills 93 11 Dontari Poe DT Chiefs 92 12 Fletcher Cox DT Eagles 95 13 Michael Floyd WR Cardinals 93 14 Michael Brockers DT Rams 94 15 Bruce Irvin OLB Seahawks 83 16 Quinton Coples DE Jets 94 17 Dre Kirkpatrick DB Bengals 92 18 Melvin Ingram DE Chargers 93 19 Shea McClellin OLB Bears 92 20 Kendall Wright WR Titans 89 21 Chandler Jones DE Patriots 94 22 Brandon Weeden QB Browns 86 23 Riley Reiff OT Lions 93 24 David DeCastro OG Steelers 93 25 Dont'a Hightower ILB Patriots 91 26 Whitney Mercilus DE Texans 89 27 Kevin Zeitler OG Bengals 88 28 Nick Perry DE Packers 88 29 Harrison Smith S Vikings 89 30 A.J. Jenkins WR 49ers 82 31 Doug Martin RB Buccaneers 90 32 David Wilson RB Giants 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Crap, that didn't work. Go to the website. A correlation functions very much like a bell curve at the mean point - so at a given draft order, there's a certain probability that the players draft grade could fall above or below the trend line. At #32, Wilson's grade was below the trend line.... even at higher draft orders, if you project out, the probability would be higher until he feel to about the 40-45th pick. y = -0.347x + 97.69 R² = 0.598 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 See now I can just laugh at what you are saying. You are assuming that every single player will play based on their grade and take no account of busts or sleepers. What happens when Luck ends up looking like Ryan Leaf if such a thing happens? Then according to your data the highest rated player in the draft could potential become one of the worst to come from the draft. Once again Venny, the Giants got a player that they wanted and was the best player that could fit the team. You are making an argument that the Giants shouldn't even bother trying to scout players and just used a grade system based on websites like ESPN, FOX and not even take into account their own personnel or game plan. I would like to see previous drafts with corresponded ratings and what the player actually lived up to in their career. If you can actually show a pattern of a high end grade player having better ratings then lower graded players, then I guess you can make something of a case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 And a preface to that correlation is David Wilson's draft grade (being lower than the trend line) is actually skewing the slope downward. If I do the correlation on picks 1-31, excluding Wilson, the slope is smaller y = -0.330x + 97.51 R² = 0.559 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 See now I can just laugh at what you are saying. You are assuming that every single player will play based on their grade and take no account of busts or sleepers. What happens when Luck ends up looking like Ryan Leaf if such a thing happens? Then according to your data the highest rated player in the draft could potential become one of the worst to come from the draft. Once again Venny, the Giants got a player that they wanted and was the best player that could fit the team. You are making an argument that the Giants shouldn't even bother trying to scout players and just used a grade system based on websites like ESPN, FOX and not even take into account their own personnel or game plan. I would like to see previous drafts with corresponded ratings and what the player actually lived up to in their career. If you can actually show a pattern of a high end grade player having better ratings then lower graded players, then I guess you can make something of a case. No, that's not what I'm saying, nor is that what a correlation or relationship implies. There are going to be exceptions as there always are, but generally the relationship holds true. I'm not saying any of what you're saying actually. You're arguing with yourself on those points. It's a correlation, but not a perfect correlation. I pointed out it's 0.77, which means there is a need to do more than purely look at draft grades - the problem I had is you guys were trying to dismiss them when they're actually pretty accurate in terms of making predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osi724dasack Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Get this math shit out of here??? It seriously makes no sense and is 100% irrelevant to the discussion IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I've been saying he has been the best player all along for the Giants, I don't know why you got all on about ESPN and other FOX sources. Once again I dont see what's so hard to understand about the Giants drafting a player that was their highest rated on the board. "Because it isn't BEST PICK AVAILABLE UNLESS THERE'S CONSENSUS AGREEMENT AMONG CNNSI, FOX, ESPN, AND CERN THAT IT IS!!!!!!!!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 No, that's not what I'm saying, nor is that what a correlation or relationship implies. There are going to be exceptions as there always are, but generally the relationship holds true. Prove it. "The Relationship holds true" If this was the case the draft wouldnt even need to be a selection process, just line the players up from 1 to 32 with best rating to last and have the team take the player on where they are in the draft. Dont even factor in team needs or personnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Get this math shit out of here??? It seriously makes no sense and is 100% irrelevant to the discussion IMO. You made claims that the draft grades have no meaning, and I just demonstrated they have substantial predictive power in terms of predicting draft order. A correlation of 0.77 is significantly high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Prove it. "The Relationship holds true" If this was the case the draft wouldnt even need to be a selection process, just line the players up from 1 to 32 with best rating to last and have the team take the player on where they are in the draft. Dont even factor in team needs or personnel. I just gave you the data and the equation from the correlation calculation. The R and R2 prove it. I'm a statistician by trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mastershake Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueInCanada Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 I just gave you the data and the equation from the correlation calculation. The R and R2 prove it. I'm a statistician by trade. You didnt prove anything really. I would like to see more examples then one draft, as a statistician you should know one sample of a single round of a draft is nothing to make a claim on. So please, use your statistician trade to prove what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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