i hope eli likes chris palmer

[jambrosio]

yes he took a step forward this year when palmer was gone

or maybe because he got a respectable #2 reciever and tight end in eric moulds and owen daniels

[jambrosio]

and it was the gameplan that improved this year to help carr, his mechanics have never really been off

[K3VIN]

or maybe because he got a respectable #2 reciever and tight end in eric moulds and owen daniels

yea eric moulds wasnt that good for him and his running game got worse.

[jambrosio]

yea eric moulds wasnt that good for him and his running game got worse.

so whats your point? how does that reflect on palmer?

[K3VIN]

so whats your point? how does that reflect on palmer?

idk lol. i just dont like the guy and he wont help Eli

[Lughead]

So I started digging into the Eli situation. Before you read on, be forewarned: this was pretty labor intensive, and I had to try to select a path of logic that I had time to work through. There are at least 100 more details I'd like to understand, but have focused the train of thought on the data I found most compelling.

 

A few weeks ago, I showed how the difference in passer rating and completion % between Eli and, for instance, Jeff Garcia, could be completely explained by the distribution of throws. With a high % of throws going to Westbrook and Smith on short throws, the .numbers for those QBs look better than Eli's even though only Smith performs better than his Giant counterpart, Shockey, in terms of the % of balls thrown his way that he actually catches.

.

For this deep dive, I decided to drill into Eli vs Brady. The logic here is that the two run offenses that are similar and, therefore more comparable...or do they?

 

The first thing that jumped out to me as odd were their comparable splits. I'll highlight a few:

 

Brady

.........................................................CAT... Att......Comp Pct......Passer Rating....TD....INT.....TD%......INT %

OWN 1-20 - BY YARD LINE...........57 .....37.............64.9...............77.3 ............0.......1......0.0%.......1.8%

OWN 21-50 - BY YARD LINE .......226 ...150.............66.4...............81.4...........2.......7......0.9%.......3.1%

OPP 49-20 - BY YARD LINE.........159 ....91..............57.2...............74.2...........4.......4..... 2.5%.......2.5%

OPP 19-1 - BY YARD LINE....... ...74.......41.............55.4...............103.9........18.......0......24.3%.....0.0%

 

Manning

.........................................................CAT...Att ...Comp Pct ...Passer Rating.....TD...INT... TD%.......INT %

OWN 1-20 - BY YARD LINE..........65..... 31...........47.7 ............36.8..............0......4......0.0%.......6.2%

OWN 21-50 - BY YARD LINE....... 231....138..........59.7............. 62.7...........2.....11.... 0.9%........4.8%

OPP 49-20 - BY YARD LINE.........172 ....103.........59.9 ..............87.2 ..........7.......3.....4.1%........1.7%

OPP 19-1 - BY YARD LINE............54......29...........53.7.............101.1 .......15.......0....27.8%.........0.0%

 

Notice that Manning's numbers are actually better than Brady's on the opponents' end of the field. He has better TD numbers and fewer interceptions in real and percentage terms. These numbers, by the way, compare very competitively with Payton's.

 

Where Eli is getting himself and the team into trouble seems to be on his end of the field...and that's where the real work started.

 

I went through every play-by-play of every game in 2006, and cataloged his interceptions. A pattern started to emerge. Time and time again...the int's came on deep throws in the first 30 yards of the field (a point of note, I think the play by plays define a deep throw as any throw over 20 yards). Not all of them, mind you, but the lion's share. The splits hide this, because they count the 21-50 yard lines as one group. Really, most of them came between the goal line and the 30 yard line.

 

That seemed odd to me. My first reaction was "why do they have Eli throwing so many deep passes from so far in their end of the field". I was never really able to answer that question, as there was no clear pattern. The deep throws came on any down, and in many situations (as we often lamented as fans...often making no sense strategically). So then my thought was..."maybe I'm nuts and every team does this". So I pulled a sample of games from Eli and Tom Brady and cataloged every deep pass from the Giants and Pats end of the field, respectively. I didn't have time to catalogue 100% in this regard, so stopped when I had a large enough sample to be relevant. The sample was intentionally biased for when Toomer and Luke were healthy. I did some further analysis after they went down, but this thread is long enough without opening that can of worms.

 

This was the distribution of deep passes thrown from their side of the field.

 

................................................Brady...........................

.. Eli Manning

.....................................Deep... Passes Percent......... Deep .....Passes Percent

0-9 Yards.............................2.......7.1%.................... ....2 ..........7.7%

10-19 Yards .........................1.......3.6% ........................4..........15.4%

20-29 Yards..........................4 ....14.3%.........................5 .........19.2%

30-39 Yards .......................13..... 46.4%........................8......... 30.8%

40-49 Yards ........................8 ......28.6% .......................7...........26.9%

 

A couple of things jumped out: First, Brady makes his money between the 30 and 50. That's where the vast majority (75%) of the deep throws from his end of the field come from. It also pointed out what I would have expected - throws between the goalline and the 30 are kept to short throws, with only an occasional deep ball. Once they get some breathing room, they take some shots to shift field position and get in scoring position. Second: Contrast that with Eli, where 45% come from between the goal line and the 30. The number of deep throws was almost identical in this sample.

 

This got even worse after Luke amd Toomer went down, especially before they readjusted the game plan going into the Cowboys game.

 

It seems odd to me that, as a gameplan, you would have a QB whose accuracy has come under fire, throw low % passes to low % receivers from low % situations: i.e., deep within Giants' territory...and we wonder why there were so many three and outs and ints.

 

While there are endless details that set up the situations behind all of the throws behind these numbers, it's hard to ignore the patterns that emerge.

 

It is also noteworthy that Eli is solid on the opponents' end of the field when compared with both Payton and Brady. This is especially noteworthy considering that the red zone running games for both New England and Indy were far stronger than was the case for New York.

 

In summary, while Eli has some work to do on his game, it appears (as we suspected) the gameplan may have as much to do with the problem as Eli.

 

I had to fix the comparison chart so it was easier to read.

[Lughead]

.

[icavesai69]

yea eric moulds wasnt that good for him and his running game got worse.

2006 AFC only

Rank ...Player ..........Team ...Yds ...Att ..Avg ..TDs ..Long

20 ....Ron Dayne ...........HOU ...612 ...151 ..4.1 ....5 ......19

23 ....Wali Lundy ...........HOU ...476 ...124 ..3.8 ....4 ......35

 

 

2005 AFC only

Rank ...Player ..........Team ...Yds ...Att ..Avg ..TDs ..Long

10 ....Domanick Davis ...HOU ....976 ....230 ..4.2 ...2 ......44

25 ....Jonathan Wells .....HOU ....325 .....90 ..3.6 .....4 .....14

[K3VIN]

2006 AFC only

Rank ...Player ..........Team ...Yds ...Att ..Avg ..TDs ..Long

20 ....Ron Dayne ...........HOU ...612 ...151 ..4.1 ....5 ......19

23 ....Wali Lundy ...........HOU ...476 ...124 ..3.8 ....4 ......35

2005 AFC only

Rank ...Player ..........Team ...Yds ...Att ..Avg ..TDs ..Long

10 ....Domanick Davis ...HOU ....976 ....230 ..4.2 ...2 ......44

25 ....Jonathan Wells .....HOU ....325 .....90 ..3.6 .....4 .....14

Davis was hurt last year. trust me Palmer is shit. he a fatter version of huff