Yankees will trade Johnson to Arizona this week

[Plow]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al...son-trade_x.htm

 

By Bob Nightengale, USA TODAY

 

The Arizona Diamondbacks expect to complete a deal with the New York Yankees by the end of the week to bring back pitcher Randy Johnson, according to a high-ranking Diamondbacks official familiar with the negotiations.

 

The clubs have agreed on the package of players the Diamondbacks will send to the Yankees, according to a club official from each team — two minor league pitchers and a major league reliever.

 

The deal has not been completed because of money issues, including how much the Yankees will pay toward Johnson's $16 million contract in 2007.

 

The Diamondbacks official also said they would like to sign Johnson to a one-year extension that would be a pay cut from his '07 salary, as well as restructure the $40 million deferred payments the left-hander is owed from his 1999-2004 stint with the team

[Plow]

Before anyone comments on this, I just wat to remind everything of one thing.

 

The Yankees won the divison last year with their 3,4,5 starters being Johnson, Wright, Chacon and Lidle. Karstens made 6 starts, Rasner had 3, and Sidney Ponson added 3 glorious ones of his own. The combined ERA of those guys is well over 5. Take out Karstens and Rasner and it could be close to 6.

 

So, how are Pettitte, Igawa, Pavano, Sanchez, and Karstens any worse? I dont think it can be. I think it's a huge improvement. Thats just my opinion.

[LorfTVP]

I think it's a shame and a reflection on the state of major league baseball when the Diamondbacks are pretty much trading away too much talent for Johnson solely to boost ticket sales. I know they're team is coming around and with one of the best farm systems in the majors they're going to compete in a couple of years time, but Johnson now doesn't help...it's about the same as Zito to the Giants, money.

 

And Plow, don't complain about rotation troubles to us, I'm sure you've heard of our troubles. Of course it began by trading away Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena, Arroyo eventually becoming one of the best pitchers in the National League. I mean, it's no Joe Thornton, but it bit us in the ass when our starters started dropping like flies. We had to start 14 different guys, you started 12 but your top 5 had 33, 33, 32, 27, and 11 games started...that's pretty damn good all things considered. Our top 5 had 33, 31, 23, 15, and 12 GS. We dealt with injuries to Wakefield, Lester, Clement, and Wells (who took a ball to his just repaired knee in a twist of irony). We suffered the entire year with out rotation, your top 4 pretty much threw every single pitch. I don't want to see a single Yankee fan consider a rotation of Mussina, Pettite, Wang, (Igawa, Sanchez, Pavano, Hughes, Karstens, Rasner) better than the Red Sox set rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, and Wakefield. Plow, you of all people know the success rates of prospects, especially pitchers, in the major leagues. You're ready to anoint all these young guys as gods without considering for a single second that one of them couldn't be ready, that one could crash and burn. Six starts in the major leagues doesn't mean you're ready, it just means that no one has a book on you yet to take advantage of your many weaknesses. We'll see how things turn out, and this isn't just bias, but I'd take stability and three 26 year old fireballing righthanders over your instability right now.

[Plow]

I think it's a shame and a reflection on the state of major league baseball when the Diamondbacks are pretty much trading away too much talent for Johnson solely to boost ticket sales. I know they're team is coming around and with one of the best farm systems in the majors they're going to compete in a couple of years time, but Johnson now doesn't help...it's about the same as Zito to the Giants, money.

 

And Plow, don't complain about rotation troubles to us, I'm sure you've heard of our troubles. Of course it began by trading away Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena, Arroyo eventually becoming one of the best pitchers in the National League. I mean, it's no Joe Thornton, but it bit us in the ass when our starters started dropping like flies. We had to start 14 different guys, you started 12 but your top 5 had 33, 33, 32, 27, and 11 games started...that's pretty damn good all things considered. Our top 5 had 33, 31, 23, 15, and 12 GS. We dealt with injuries to Wakefield, Lester, Clement, and Wells (who took a ball to his just repaired knee in a twist of irony). We suffered the entire year with out rotation, your top 4 pretty much threw every single pitch. I don't want to see a single Yankee fan consider a rotation of Mussina, Pettite, Wang, (Igawa, Sanchez, Pavano, Hughes, Karstens, Rasner) better than the Red Sox set rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, and Wakefield. Plow, you of all people know the success rates of prospects, especially pitchers, in the major leagues. You're ready to anoint all these young guys as gods without considering for a single second that one of them couldn't be ready, that one could crash and burn. Six starts in the major leagues doesn't mean you're ready, it just means that no one has a book on you yet to take advantage of your many weaknesses. We'll see how things turn out, and this isn't just bias, but I'd take stability and three 26 year old fireballing righthanders over your instability right now.

 

 

Ok if you want to look at the glass half full, then take a look at 4 of your starters. Now you're going to be shocked because the only steady guy I see in your rotation is Wakefield.

 

There was talk about Schilling retiring. He's not the same dominant pitcher he once was. Ever since his ankle surgery he's just been pretty good. Nothing special. He's going on 41 years old with a bad ankle. He doesn't throw as hard as he once did and teams have found ways to knock him around a bit.

 

Matzuzaka... dont get me started. You dont have a clue what this guy is going to do. You can show me all those projections that you want, but he's still coming from japan to the major leagues. Not only that he's coming to the AL East where every team has 19 games against 4 other teams that can all hit. He's going to be seen as some type of savior who cost the team 100 mil to get. The media is going to be all over him. His whole country is going to be looking on to see what kind of player he's going to be. He's got a ton of pressure on him and he still hasn't thrown a pitch yet.

 

Beckett... this one is my favorite. You can point to talent all you want, it's not a question he has it. But the guy is more of a thrower than a pitcher. He's going to have to get smart, and he's not smart. His last season didn't fool anybody. Here are the teams he pitched more than 15 IP to last year. 20 IP against the Yankees with a 9.45 ERA. 29 IP against the Blue Jays with a 6.21 ERA. 17.1 IP against Oakland with a 6.23 ERA. 20.2 IP against Tampa Bay with a 5.03 ERA. 22 IP to Kansas City with a 2.46 ERA. The only team he had success against was the one he could blow his fastball by. My favorite part about this guy is that he could be one of those players that pitches the big game against the last place team and doesn't even show up for the tough games. Yeah yeah yeah keep citing what he did in 2003 against the Yankees. That was against a Yankees team that was tired out and all those pitchers pitched well against us. Now the guy is pitching to tougher lineups and the momentum isn't there that he once had.

 

Papelbon I could see as being a decent starter. Idk how confident you can be on a full year at a high level from this guy though. He hurt his shoulder towards the end. Thats never a good sign. Do you really think he's going to pitch a whole year and dominate. To me he's going to be solid but I dont see him dominating people. Escpecially after the league started figuring him out last year in the second half. I mean like you said Lorf, when a young guy has only started 3 games, who knows. He's got a ton of talent though, but once again he's more of a wild card.

 

So, this is what I am going to ask your Lorf. Where the fuck is the consistency and stability here? What have these guys proven? They have proven nothing except that they have talent. Mussina and Pettitte have been proving year after year they can handle pressure in New York and give you consistent stuff. Wang was 2nd in AL Cy Young voting last year. There are 3 guys right there who have proven things. Igawa is talented and scouts have him projected as a back of the rotation guy in the majors. Well isn't that where he is on the Yankees? Yeah he hasn't proven anything but we still have a bunch of young guys with talent in the minors. Pavano when healthy was a solid pitcher for a bit for the Yankees. We have depth and a balance of proven guys with guys with talent. I dont see your balance.

 

The sox rotation is good, but you cant say any Yankee fan is an idiot for thinking the Yanks' rotation isnt as good. There are more questions on guys in your rotation then there are for the Yanks rotation. We're worried about 2 guys. Our 4,5 starters. Yet we have like 6 candidates for the job. You're worried about your 2,3,4 starters and you have 4 (Lester is included if he comes back) candidates for the job

[LorfTVP]

Ok if you want to look at the glass half full, then take a look at 4 of your starters. Now you're going to be shocked because the only steady guy I see in your rotation is Wakefield.

 

There was talk about Schilling retiring. He's not the same dominant pitcher he once was. Ever since his ankle surgery he's just been pretty good. Nothing special. He's going on 41 years old with a bad ankle. He doesn't throw as hard as he once did and teams have found ways to knock him around a bit.

 

Matzuzaka... dont get me started. You dont have a clue what this guy is going to do. You can show me all those projections that you want, but he's still coming from japan to the major leagues. Not only that he's coming to the AL East where every team has 19 games against 4 other teams that can all hit. He's going to be seen as some type of savior who cost the team 100 mil to get. The media is going to be all over him. His whole country is going to be looking on to see what kind of player he's going to be. He's got a ton of pressure on him and he still hasn't thrown a pitch yet.

 

Beckett... this one is my favorite. You can point to talent all you want, it's not a question he has it. But the guy is more of a thrower than a pitcher. He's going to have to get smart, and he's not smart. His last season didn't fool anybody. Here are the teams he pitched more than 15 IP to last year. 20 IP against the Yankees with a 9.45 ERA. 29 IP against the Blue Jays with a 6.21 ERA. 17.1 IP against Oakland with a 6.23 ERA. 20.2 IP against Tampa Bay with a 5.03 ERA. 22 IP to Kansas City with a 2.46 ERA. The only team he had success against was the one he could blow his fastball by. My favorite part about this guy is that he could be one of those players that pitches the big game against the last place team and doesn't even show up for the tough games. Yeah yeah yeah keep citing what he did in 2003 against the Yankees. That was against a Yankees team that was tired out and all those pitchers pitched well against us. Now the guy is pitching to tougher lineups and the momentum isn't there that he once had.

 

Papelbon I could see as being a decent starter. Idk how confident you can be on a full year at a high level from this guy though. He hurt his shoulder towards the end. Thats never a good sign. Do you really think he's going to pitch a whole year and dominate. To me he's going to be solid but I dont see him dominating people. Escpecially after the league started figuring him out last year in the second half. I mean like you said Lorf, when a young guy has only started 3 games, who knows. He's got a ton of talent though, but once again he's more of a wild card.

 

So, this is what I am going to ask your Lorf. Where the fuck is the consistency and stability here? What have these guys proven? They have proven nothing except that they have talent. Mussina and Pettitte have been proving year after year they can handle pressure in New York and give you consistent stuff. Wang was 2nd in AL Cy Young voting last year. There are 3 guys right there who have proven things. Igawa is talented and scouts have him projected as a back of the rotation guy in the majors. Well isn't that where he is on the Yankees? Yeah he hasn't proven anything but we still have a bunch of young guys with talent in the minors. Pavano when healthy was a solid pitcher for a bit for the Yankees. We have depth and a balance of proven guys with guys with talent. I dont see your balance.

 

The sox rotation is good, but you cant say any Yankee fan is an idiot for thinking the Yanks' rotation isnt as good. There are more questions on guys in your rotation then there are for the Yanks rotation. We're worried about 2 guys. Our 4,5 starters. Yet we have like 6 candidates for the job. You're worried about your 2,3,4 starters and you have 4 (Lester is included if he comes back) candidates for the job

 

Haha, hilarious. Let's see, Mike Mussina is coming off of his best season in years but he is getting older, I believe that was your same excuse for Schilling. Schilling started off hot, but after that, was actually pretty consistent. He once again had the best K/BB ratio in the majors, mustering with it a 3.97 era and a 1.22 WHIP. He has some amazing ratios still. There was never talk about him retiring last year, he said concretely that this season, 2007, would be his last and that he wouldn't pull a Clemens. Schilling is also one of the smartest pitchers in all of baseball, no Pedro, but he is completely capable of at least matching last year's statistics. Mussina matched his stats of the last year after the all star break, adding a full run to his era. It was a great deal for the Yankees to resign him but I think there are questions of whether this resurgence is for real or not despite his history of success.

 

Pettite has proven that he can handle New York in the past but it's a different AL East now. Pettite is coming off of all of ONE good year in the NL. I really am interested in seeing his return to the thumping AL, most particularly the AL East. In his three years in Houston, Pettite, battle injuries which could pop up again...for his age, he isn't the healthiest person in the world.

 

Chien-Mien Wang was considered one of the luckiest pitchers in the AL according to statistics from DIPS and LIPS, as I argued. I still think a groundball pitcher can vary from year to year no matter how good he is. Look at Jason Johnson, look at Lowe...just to name a few. I mean, odds are your defense will be better and A-rod can't possibly be as bad and your new first baseman will catch more than Giambi ever could. But with sinkerballers, with so many balls hit along the ground, so many can get through, and the lack of strikeouts can hurt. There's an injury risk as well, with Wang going from 116 yo 218 innings pitched. I know you guys love him but all I'm saying is that there are risks with sinkerballers.

 

I'll argue more but right now I need to jump on a bus to Boston...but as soon as I get home, more will come.

[Plow]

Chien-Mien Wang was considered one of the luckiest pitchers in the AL according to statistics from DIPS and LIPS, as I argued. I still think a groundball pitcher can vary from year to year no matter how good he is. Look at Jason Johnson, look at Lowe...just to name a few. I mean, odds are your defense will be better and A-rod can't possibly be as bad and your new first baseman will catch more than Giambi ever could. But with sinkerballers, with so many balls hit along the ground, so many can get through, and the lack of strikeouts can hurt. There's an injury risk as well, with Wang going from 116 yo 218 innings pitched. I know you guys love him but all I'm saying is that there are risks with sinkerballers.

 

I'll argue more but right now I need to jump on a bus to Boston...but as soon as I get home, more will come.

 

hi, i'm from boston, when we win it's skill, when you win it's luck.

[feefifoefum]

I wouldn't trade a bag of crushed assholes for Randy Johnson, but that's just me.

[LorfTVP]

hi, i'm from boston, when we win it's skill, when you win it's luck.

 

Haha, nice try. Okay, Plow, this time I'm going to try my best to be judgemental on both sides...note the key word is try.

 

Mike Mussina had a resurgence last year in which he posted his best numbers in three years and barely surpassed his career averages. While there are questions about his age, I think that a veteran pitcher like Mussina is the most likely pitcher on the Yankees staff to repeat his numbers. While his stats bumped a bit after the All Star break, Mussina will continue to pitch well.

 

Chien-Ming Wang, as I said before is a groundball pitcher. I'm not saying that there's a guarantee he'll do worse than this year but that there is fluctuation in the performance of sinkerballers. As long as he can continue to get double plays with a good defense behind him, he can get by with his 1.31 WHIP, .277 BAA and 76 Ks, but as we've seen before, performance can fluctuate based on defense. Last year he had the second most double plays after Jake Westbrook, another sinkerball pitcher who despite getting three more double plays had a 4.17 era to Wang's 3.63. He struck out about 30 more batters but had a WHIP ten points higher. Granted the Indians aren't known for their spectacular infield defense. I think that Wang can repeat considering that A-rod has to be better defensively and a new first baseman will get more balls. He did nearly double his IP last year as well, adding on 100 innings. Actually, including AAA starts, he had 150 innings that year and added on 60...so that injury risk may not be as big as I had thought.

 

Andy Pettitte is coming off of a great second half despite his mediocre era last year. I'm still looking at the fact that the difference between the AL and NL has never been so apparent as it was the last couple of years. His return to the AL may not be the best, at least I have doubts he'll match his NL numbers in his return to the AL. He had a 6.56 era against the AL in 4 starts last year and a 6 era in his 7 overall starts vs. the AL in his three years in Houston. I'm not saying that this is a guarantee he'll falter but that it's some food for thought. I see a low 4 era for Pettitte in his return to the AL because of the strength of the league. He does have some of that Yankee magic though so we'll see if that works.

 

Kei Igawa is a flyball pitcher who only has two good pitches and tops out in the high 80s. If he can pinpoint his pitches maybe he'll be effective but I don't have too much hope. I would've been angry at the Sox if they got Igawa, not gonna lie...plus he looks like a chipmunk but that's besides the point.

 

And as for your final spot, you're either throwing in Pavano who flopped in his short time pitching in the AL, or a prospect who is, in most respects, unproven in the majors. Pavano has talent but he'll have to not only shake off the multiple injuries but also the ire of Yankees fans and he has to face the AL East after pitching his entire career in the pre-Mets NL East. One of your prospects could burst onto the scene but at least expect some growing pains and realize that any good performances will be lucky.

 

Now for the Boston Red Sox.

 

Curt Schilling is coming off of a comeback season after an injury plagued one in which he even closed for the Red Sox. His K/BB was 6.54, dwarfing Santana's 5.21. The next closest in the majors is Mussina at 4.91 and then Oswalts's 4.37. Those are some damn good pitchers up there and Schilling's ratio is way up top. He allowed more hits than usual last year which could either be year to year fluctuation or a sign of breaking down. Regardless, this is Schilling's final year before he retires, or so he says, so we'll see how he ends up. I still think his statistics are great and with a ratio like that, his era won't be above 4 unless every hit he gives up his a HR. With that said, there are always injury risks with age but in every other respect, Schilling has been healthy.

 

Josh Beckett can't possibly be worse than he was last year and I seriously doubt he'll allow more HRs, in fact his rate should drop considerably. He's a young guy who has the pitches and the ability to pitch well, just not the intelligence as of now. At the worst he'll match this year's performance, but with a new pitching coach and realization of what he was doing wrong along with less pressure and experience in the AL East, I'm hoping he'll pitch better. I do realize that he completely owned the NL last season and without those numbers his era rises considerably, but I have confidence in him.

 

Daisuke Matsuzaka is one of the best pitchers in the history of Japan and has a chance to be one of the best in the world. You can't say not to look at what scouts say about Matsuzaka and then talk about what scouts say about Igawa. He has experience dealing with pressure from the Japanese press as a national treasure. The same thing with Igawa will plague Matsuzaka in the majors, bigger hitters. The highest projection I've seen for him is a 4.01 era. Most people who have seen him are sure of success, as am I, but there is always the chance that he'll struggle solely because of the dominance of AL hitters.

 

Jonathon Papelbon will most likely be pitching a career high in IPs next year after throwing only 68 innings as the Red Sox closer last season with a shoulder injury ending his season. His IP totals from year to year have gone 129, 148, 68. I expect the Red Sox to be wary with how long they'll let him stay in and give him the Verlander and Felix Hernandez treatments of last season. He has a good history of starting in the minor leagues as well, though limited experience in triple A. He obviously won't pitch as well as he did last year but if the Sox keep a check on his IP I expect some sort of success. Granted, all the worsts could come to reality, he'll be knocked around or hitters seeing his pitches multiple times in a game will give 'em a chance to knock 'em out. I actually have a lot of confidence in Varitek in calling games though, so that also gives the Sox a slight edge in my opinion. The difference between Papelbon and Rasner and Karstens is a better record of success in the minors, especially in strikeout rates, and experience in the majors as Rasner and Karstens still maintain rookie status.

 

Tim Wakefield is simply put, consistent. He'll never match 2002's sub-3 era again (though what a year, Pedro, Lowe, and Wakefield all with sub-3 eras) but he'll be at league average with his knuckleball floating about. Sometimes he's on, sometimes he's doomed, but there's nothing that really changes in his stats from year to year. Tossing out 2002's outlier, in the last five seasons, he's had an ERA between 3.90 and 4.87 and a WHIP between 1.23 and 1.38 and a BAA between .245 and .264. Other than age, there's no reason to expect anything different.

 

There, Plow, I tried my best. What do you have to say about that?

[Plow]

lorf both teams have questions, the red sox might have an edge, the yankees might have an edge. Who knows? All I know is both teams put a lot of pressure on their pitchers both coming from the media and the fans. The Yankees have 3 guys who can handle this at their 1-3 starters. The red sox 1-3 starters have one guy (schilling) who can handle the pressure.

 

There are a lot of questions, and it's close. I just didn't like how you treated the Yankees rotation like crap.

 

Now here's some food for thought... How will the performaces of the red sox pitchers be effected by the bulpen you possess. As oppose to the yankees who only need 6 inning pitchers?

[Plow]

also your assessment was well done

[LorfTVP]

lorf both teams have questions, the red sox might have an edge, the yankees might have an edge. Who knows? All I know is both teams put a lot of pressure on their pitchers both coming from the media and the fans. The Yankees have 3 guys who can handle this at their 1-3 starters. The red sox 1-3 starters have one guy (schilling) who can handle the pressure.

 

There are a lot of questions, and it's close. I just didn't like how you treated the Yankees rotation like crap.

 

Now here's some food for thought... How will the performaces of the red sox pitchers be effected by the bulpen you possess. As oppose to the yankees who only need 6 inning pitchers?

 

That's true, our bullpen will be a problem, but we do have a lot of depth. We just added Pineiro as a closer candidate and/or long relief. Is your bullpen set? Who is in it exactly?

[LorfTVP]

Granted it only takes a look at the Yankees shortcomings, I feel like this recent ESPN article supports my argument: Uncertain Times