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[NYHC GIANT]

Give this mess a read.....

 

As reported by Giants beat writer Ralph Vacchiano: (blog)

 

Calculating Big Blue's Playoff Hopes

 

Upon further review, the Giants don't control their own destiny. At least, not completely.

 

That's why this time of year is so confusing for anyone who doesn't have a doctorate in calculus. We were all so sure last night that all the Giants had to do was win their last two games and they were still in the playoffs. But the Giants discovered early this morning that there is one scenario where they can go 2-0 and still be on the outside looking in:

 

IF ...

 

Philadelphia beats Dallas and then loses to Atlanta, which would leave the Eagles at 9-7 ...

And Atlanta beats Carolina and Philly, leaving them at 9-7 ...

And Dallas defeats Detroit, which would make them 10-6 and give them the NFC East title ...

 

THEN ...

 

The Eagles, Falcons and Giants would all be tied at 9-7.

 

IN THAT CASE ...

 

NFL rules say that when there's a three-way tie for a wild-card spot, ties inside the division are broken first. That means the Giants would be eliminated by a tie-breaker with the Eagles based on their division record. Philly would be 5-1 in the NFC East and the Giants would be 4-2. And Philly and the Falcons would get the wild-card spots.

 

Make sense?

 

* * *

 

You think that's confusing. How about this scenario I discovered (and I'm 87.3% sure I'm right about this) where the Giants get in the playoffs with a 7-9 record ....

 

IF ...

 

The Giants go 0-2 and finish 7-9 ...

The Falcons go 0-2 and finish 7-9 ...

The Vikings go 0-2 and finish 6-10 ...

The Panthers go 1-1, with the one victory coming over Atlanta, and finish 7-9 ...

The 49ers go 0-2 and finish 6-10 ...

The Packers go 1-1, with the one victory coming over Minnesota, and finish 7-9 ...

And the Rams go 1-1, with the one victory coming over Minnesota, and finish 7-9 ...

 

THEN ...

 

The Giants, Falcons, Panthers, Packers and Rams would all be tied for the final wild-card spot with a 7-9 record.

 

IN THAT CASE ...

 

Division ties are broken first, so the Panthers would eliminate the Falcons based on a better division record (4-1 to 3-2). That would leave the Giants, Panthers, Packers and Rams in a knot for one spot.

 

They haven't all played each other, so conference record becomes the first tie-breaker. The Packers and Giants would both be 6-6 in the NFC, which would eliminate the Panthers and Rams (both 5-7).

 

That would leave the Packers and Giants tied in record and in conference record. So they'd move to the No. 3 tie-breaker -- record in common games. They will have both played the Bears, Saints, Seahawks and Eagles (the Giants have played the Eagles twice, and the Packers will have played the Bears twice). The Giants would be 1-4 in those games, thanks to their miracle, fourth-quarter comeback in Philly on Sept. 17. The Packers would be 0-5.

 

That would eliminate the Packers and leave the Eagles and the Giants as the two wild-card teams.

 

I'm sure there's another scenario where they could finish 7-9 and still get in. I'm also pretty sure that if I tried to figure it out for you my head would explode.

 

* * *

 

Want to cut through the confusion? Here are the most important two things to know right now:

 

1. The Giants can clinch a playoff berth this weekend if they beat the Saints AND the Vikings lose to or tie the Packers AND the Falcons lose to Carolina AND the Eagles either beat or tie the Cowboys, AND EITHER a Seahawks win or tie against the Chargers OR a 49ers loss to the Cardinals.

 

That scenario prevents the Falcons from getting in over the Giants by virtue of a three-way tie with them and the Eagles, and it clinches the NFC West for the Seahawks, which prevents them from stealing a wild-card berth from the Giants.

 

(Many thanks to NFL tie-breaking expert Joe Ferreira for that mind-numbing analysis.)

 

2. The NFC East race is over for the Giants. For them to finish in first, the Cowboys would have to lose twice to fall to 9-7. Since one of those losses would be to the Eagles, the Eagles would finish 9-7 too. In the case of that three-way tie, the tie-breaker is best record head-to-head among the three teams. The Giants split both series to go 2-2. But the Eagles swept the Cowboys, making them 3-1. So the Eagles would be the NFC East champs and the Giants would finish second.

 

* * *

 

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go repeatedly bang my head into a brick wall.